89 Beyer (est.) for Starlight debut winner Position Limit

Kasept · #1 07-14-2010, 06:33 PM

2nd winner in 6th starter for Bellamy Road as Starlight debut colt POSITION LIMIT airs by nearly 7 today at Belmont. Based on runner up Evangelical's 71, it looks like an 89 Beyer for the Virginia bred juvenile (Lazy Lane Farms). Was very impressive and a crazy 4-1 as debuting Toner got overbet.

blackthroatedwind · #2 07-14-2010, 06:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

2nd winner in 6th starter for Bellamy Road as Starlight debut colt POSITION LIMIT airs by nearly 7 today at Belmont. Based on runner up Evangelical's 71, it looks like an 89 Beyer for the Virginia bred juvenile (Lazy Lane Farms). Was very impressive and a crazy 4-1 as debuting Toner got overbet.

" Crazy 4:1 " and " Toner got overbet. "

Really? It was a wet track. Perhaps the winner freaked and others didn't handle it.

I bet Toner ends up making the odds look more accurate down the road.

NTamm1215 · #3 07-14-2010, 06:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

" Crazy 4:1 " and " Toner got overbet. "

Really? It was a wet track. Perhaps the winner freaked and others didn't handle it.

I bet Toner ends up making the odds look more accurate down the road.

Considering how rarely Toner's horses run well first time out the likelihood that horse only gets better is terrific. Evangelical feels like a horse who's going to still be a maiden around Derby time 2011.

NT

blackthroatedwind · #4 07-14-2010, 07:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Considering how rarely Toner's horses run well first time out the likelihood that horse only gets better is terrific. Evangelical feels like a horse who's going to still be a maiden around Derby time 2011.

NT

I agree, but for Toner to take that kind of money with a firster, it seems likely it can run.

Evangelical is a bet against forever.

Kasept · #5 07-14-2010, 08:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

" Crazy 4:1 " and " Toner got overbet. "

Really? It was a wet track. Perhaps the winner freaked and others didn't handle it.

I bet Toner ends up making the odds look more accurate down the road.

Andy,

Agree the Toner justifies ultimately. Regarding the winner though, I didn't get the sense he simply mudlarked. He pulled himself into the race and was running 'upright' the whole time before really leveling off while pulling away after passing the leader.

Regarding the tote, Pletcher regularly seems to have Jack Wolf's horses ready early. I was surprised by the 4-1.

blackthroatedwind · #6 07-14-2010, 08:40 PM

Glad to hear you scored out.

The Indomitable DrugS · #7 07-14-2010, 10:09 PM

Since 2001 Toner's record with 2-year-olds racing on dirt: 71-0-3-9

philcski · #8 07-14-2010, 10:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Since 2001 Toner's record with 2-year-olds racing on dirt: 71-0-3-9

So you're saying 8/5 was overbet?

Merlinsky · #9 07-14-2010, 10:52 PM

Always fascinating to look at the youngsters. Very hopeful time in a lot of ways--somebody, somewhere has the 2011 Derby winner in their barn or paddock as we speak. Many of them haven't had a chance to break our hearts yet by showing promise only to get hurt or fail to measure up. Here's Position Limit as a sale-bound young'un: http://i682.photobucket.com/albums/v...itionLimit.jpg

DrugS, thought about you when I saw this (due to your signature): http://www.buzzfeed.com/awesomer/the...s-presented-by

The Indomitable DrugS · #10 07-14-2010, 10:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

So you're saying 8/5 was overbet?

I've seen better 8/5 shots.

The dam of that horse has been brutal in debuts with her 3 horses she's dropped so far.

A full sibling to the Toner ran in a 2yo MSW race at HP last year ... and they bet it to 9/2 for trainer Gary Sherlock. That's getting pounded.

http://www.drf.com/drfNCWeeklyHorseD...90702&raceNo=6

The horse ran a dreadful 8th in a field of 9 ... a 60/1 debuter from Richard Rosales barn finished 2nd.

The other foal the dam dropped was an Empire Maker that was beaten about 30 lengths at Delaware Park in its debut for Tom Albertrani.

Maybe the horse can run a lot on the dirt ... but I need to see it to believe it first with something like that.

blackthroatedwind · #11 07-14-2010, 10:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

So you're saying 8/5 was overbet?

Believe it or not, Phil, a lot of things in gambling that are successful are counterintuitive.

If you say you understand that, then you are admitting you are ( once again ) saying something you don't believe just to take a swipe at me. And, if you don't.......

philcski · #12 07-14-2010, 11:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Believe it or not, Phil, a lot of things in gambling that are successful are counterintuitive.

If you say you understand that, then you are admitting you are ( once again ) saying something you don't believe just to take a swipe at me. And, if you don't.......

Dude, WHAT THE F? I wasn't saying anything to you. Why are you getting upset? Why is everything I say suddenly a "swipe" at you?

Honestly, I had no idea that Toner was that bad with 2YO's and was answering with a deadpan question. I knew it wasn't his forte, but 0-71 is almost hard to believe. You learn something new every day.