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#1
08-12-2010, 06:04 AM
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8/12: Saratoga (Day 18-$41k C/O)
Wednesday was one of those curious afternoons when the P6 went un-hit despite no ridiculous winners popping up during the sequence. Although winners weren't impossible to identify, it was a day where supporting players like Mike Luzzi, Channing Hill, Leo O'Brien, Mike Micelli, Jimmy Ryerson and ice cold Jose Lezcano all figured in the sextet decisions. The result was a $41k carryover into Thursday's quirky card that may see rain somewhere along the line. My own play was sloppy Wednesday with poor P4 execution but a couple of minor exotic hits that took the edge off losses. My fourth race opinion was the highlight of the afternoon, as keying off Best Value top choice By M K with the rest of the tabs swept the multi-horse mutuels. The Hennig trainee (11-2) fell short of 4th choice Julies Ina Frenzy (7-1), but the exacta ($57.75), triple ($120.00) and super ($816.00) were nice nice returns in the 11 horse field. The missed opportunity of the day came in the 2nd race where Strategic Move (First time Klesaris) went off at 7-1 after failing to appeal at the 3-1 ML. Hope you did OK!
Tough series today with brutally tough early P4 skein that includes a pair of Maiden affairs and slippery starter allowance. Thanks go out to DRF's Brad Free who joined me Wednesday on ATR to preview the big DMR carryover and provided a road map to key horses to help you snare half of the races. Free offered up single suggestions with $11.60 Stroppy (his Best Bet) in Leg A and Goggles McCoy in Leg E, as well as $8 Sky Chant as the top pick in the D leg. You needed to include the 7-2 Sadler entry (Leg B) and 2nd choice Mr. Gennaro (nightcap) to Brad's thoughts to collect the $16k+ that came back! SARATOGA RACE COURSE POST-SCRATCHES 1st: OC/C, 4+, 16.5f-National Fences (P3, DD, Super) Best Value: #8 Parker's Project 8-1 2nd Most Likely: #6 Hidden Trail 3-1 7th Next Best: #1 All Together 4-1 8th Super Add: #3 Grantor 12-1 3rd 2nd: MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #5 Inflation Hedge 3-1 6th Best Value: #7 Valiant Passion 15-1 WON ($63.00) Next Best: #3 Town Flirt 4-1 5th Super Add: #4 Mean Reversion 15-1 4th 3rd: MDN CLM, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P3, DD) Bizarrely, 3 Dance With Ravens fillies, from KY, MD and PA yet, debut here.. NOTE scratch of 1 (POE).. Most Likely: #9 Smokehouse 7-2 WON ($5.20) Best Value: #3 Dopke Gal 10-1 4th Next Best: #1a Saratogaatseventy 5-2 8th Exotics Use: #5 Point Gammon 4-1 7th 4th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD, Super) Frequently hard to judge giveaway horses like 7-5 Sette E Mezzo.. Best Value: #3 Hangingbyathread 8-1 4th Next Best: #7 Codeword SCRATCHED Exotics Use: #9 Sette E Mezzo 7-5 WON ($4.00) Super Add: #5 Fagedaboutit Sal 8-1 2nd 5th: S/ALW, 3+, 7f (P6, P3, DD, Super) $41k Carryover Starts Here.. Most Likely: #2 Numb Lips 6-1 6th Next Best: #9 Star of New York 3-1 3rd Best Value: #10 Heritage Hall 10-1 WON ($20.20) Super Add: #8 Harmonizer 9-2 2nd <$75 P4 Play: 2: 3-5-7 3: 3-9 4: 3-5-9 5: 2-8-9-10 3x2x3x4 = $72 $1 Pick 4 (7-9-9-10) Paid $1,971.50 6th: MDN CLM, 3+, 8.5f-T (G/S, P3, DD, Super) Confusing bunch that seem impossible to separate.. Best Value: #1 Cat Be Nimble 10-1 8th Next Best: #4 The West Rim 3-1 3rd Exotics Use: #6 Yan Yan 12-1 7th Super Add: #7 National Gallery 8-1 6th 7th: CLM, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super) Best Value: #10 SILENT PIPE 10-1 5th Next Best: #9 King Andrew 9-2 2nd Exotics Use: #1 Brilliant Son 3-1 4th Super Add: #5 Miner Bird 12-1 9th 8th: Statue of Liberty-NY, 3yo-F, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #4 In Te Domine 2-1 WON ($3.00) Best Value: #8 Loyal Shadow 10-1 5th Next Best: #1 In Your Dreams 5-1 4th Super Add: #10 Raffie's Rose 10-1 3rd 9th: CLM, 3+, 7f (DD, Super) 3-1 ML fave Bridge to Nowhere isn't any more likely than the next 4-5 choices.. Most Likely: #7 Always On The Move 5-1 6th Best Value: #5 Fiery Rebel 15-1 4th Next Best: #11 Great Crusade 7-2 WON ($7.00) Super Add: #3 Bridge to Nowhere 3-1 3rd 10th: CLM, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (Super) Best Value: #2 Precision Farming 5-1 WON ($14.40) Next Best: #9 Lights Out Lisa 9-2 3rd Exotics Use: #10 Kyriana 3-1 6th Super Add: #4 Girl Bar 7-2 5th <$150 P6 Play: 5: 2-9 6: 1-4-6-7-10 7: 10 8: 4-8 9: 7 10: 2-9-10 2x5x1x2x1x3 = 60 x $2 = $120 <$75 P4 Play: 7: 9-10 8: 1-4-8 9: 3-5-7-11 10: 2-9-10 2x3x4x3 = $72 Good luck! Steve
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 08-12-2010 at 06:20 PM. 
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#4
08-12-2010, 11:52 AM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#6
08-12-2010, 01:41 PM
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God I hope you end up hitting that Pick 4. Would be awesome.
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#7
08-12-2010, 01:43 PM
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Awesome start Steve, good luck the rest of the way with it.
__________________
Felix Unger talking to Oscar Madison: "Your horse could finish third by 20 lengths and they still pay you? And you have been losing money for all these years?!"
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#8
08-12-2010, 02:06 PM
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Thx fellas! That was quite nice...
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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