Presque Isle at a mile

[The Indomitable DrugS]

The inside speed nature of a track that favors such runners is rarely reflected stronger in post position stats than it is in the shortest possible two-turn route said track runs.

In the case of Presque Isle - that will be at the distance of one mile. Because the start is so close to the first turn - a horse with a lot of early speed and a wide post will be unable to clear and make the rail without being very hard sent.

Post position 6 and outward is a combined 2-for-92 going one mile at Presque Isle this meet.

Of the two winners, one was a standout Jamie Ness trained favorite that paid $4.80 - the other was a 650K yearling buy - 4th time starter shipping in from Delaware, dropping into a 15K MCL race, and trying synthetic for the first time. He paid $9.40 to win.

The winner that paid $4.80 - horses breaking from posts 1, 2, and 3 completed a superfecta that paid over $6,000 in that race.

The winner that paid $9.40 - a 16/1 longshot breaking from post 2 was 2nd and a 23/1 shot breaking from the rail was 4th. The superfecta that included the two favorites and the two longshots breaking from posts 1 and 2 paid over $2,900.

Post 1 has won 28% of the races at one mile. Post 2 has won 23% of them.

There have been 560 races run for the entire meet at all distances - and BOTH post #1 and #2 are showing a very significant ROI profit. Meaning, if you simply bet both posts 1 and 2 in all 560 races run - you're WAY ahead. I've never seen that before in racing history.

Look at Post 6 going a mile - not only is it 0-for-36 this meet - but it's just had a single second place finish as well.

It's almost to the point where I'm wondering if watching so many races at this track is perverting my trip handicapping at other tracks. If you run a race like the Whitney here - Musket Man stops to a walk.

[Sightseek]

Maybe I should stop betting ST and start super boxing the inside posts at PID.

[hockey2315]

So what's the ROI if you bet BOTH the 1 and 2 post in every race.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I haven't updated the ROI yet to include last weeks races. Post 1 is posting a staggering profit by itself. Post 2 is posting a healthy profit by itself. When I get more time after the races are done today I will.

[hockey2315]

Thank you. . . I'm intrigued. It would also be interesting to know the exacta ROI for those two slots, but that would be a huge pain to calculate.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Thank you. . . I'm intrigued. It would also be interesting to know the exacta ROI for those two slots, but that would be a huge pain to calculate.

Yeah it would.

Of the winter tracks - post position data strongly suggested that Fairgrounds was the most rail friendly of all this winter.

Here are post stats for races at a Mile and 40 yards on dirt at FG this winter: (The Mile and 40 yard distance is the shortest route distance they run)

Post 1: 51-for-182
Post 2: 23-for-182
Post 3: 21-for-182
Post 4: 18-for-182
Post 5: 20-for-182
Post 6: 11-for-178
Post 7: 16-for-168
Post 8: 9-for-137
Post 9: 6-for-100
Post 10: 5-for-77
Post 11: 1-for-47

I remember on Belmont Stakes Day - right before the Acorn I was sitting at a table at the track with my father and a few other local bettors - and one of them asked me what I thought of Champagne D' Oro.

I said "the most positive thing I can say is that she overcame the 10 post at Fair Grounds to run a good 2nd to Quiet Temper at 8.5f two starts back. I didn't use her." She wins at 39/1 odds.

When the Belmont Stakes comes a few races later - I say to the same guy "the most positive thing I can say about Drosselmeyer is that he overcame the 13 post at Fair Grounds in the La Derby at 8.5fs to run a good 3rd beaten just a length. But he got owned by Fly Down over this track last time" Drosselmeyer wins the Belmont at 13/1 odds - and my top two picks Fly Down and First Dude run 2nd and 3rd. I don't even use him on spreads in the multi-win.

After the race, the guy goes "I'm going to be scanning the form all summer looking for longshots who have a good recent race from a wide post at Fairgrounds"

[AlreadyHome]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

The inside speed nature of a track that favors such runners is rarely reflected stronger in post position stats than it is in the shortest possible two-turn route said track runs.

In the case of Presque Isle - that will be at the distance of one mile. Because the start is so close to the first turn - a horse with a lot of early speed and a wide post will be unable to clear and make the rail without being very hard sent.

Post position 6 and outward is a combined 2-for-92 going one mile at Presque Isle this meet.

Of the two winners, one was a standout Jamie Ness trained favorite that paid $4.80 - the other was a 650K yearling buy - 4th time starter shipping in from Delaware, dropping into a 15K MCL race, and trying synthetic for the first time. He paid $9.40 to win.

The winner that paid $4.80 - horses breaking from posts 1, 2, and 3 completed a superfecta that paid over $6,000 in that race.

The winner that paid $9.40 - a 16/1 longshot breaking from post 2 was 2nd and a 23/1 shot breaking from the rail was 4th. The superfecta that included the two favorites and the two longshots breaking from posts 1 and 2 paid over $2,900.

Post 1 has won 28% of the races at one mile. Post 2 has won 23% of them.

There have been 560 races run for the entire meet at all distances - and BOTH post #1 and #2 are showing a very significant ROI profit. Meaning, if you simply bet both posts 1 and 2 in all 560 races run - you're WAY ahead. I've never seen that before in racing history.

Look at Post 6 going a mile - not only is it 0-for-36 this meet - but it's just had a single second place finish as well.

It's almost to the point where I'm wondering if watching so many races at this track is perverting my trip handicapping at other tracks. If you run a race like the Whitney here - Musket Man stops to a walk.

thank you for this post wow i luv your obsevation/calculation @PID
THIS IS A VERY INTERESTING/EDUCATIONAL/INSIDE INFO POST WOWWW

[iamthelurker]

I dont understand you, but the 9 horse just won race two at presque isle.

[iamthelurker]

So now its 3-93 according to Drugs findings.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by iamthelurker

I dont understand you, but the 9 horse just won race two at presque isle.

RHT had a win bet on the 1 and 2 that race. He told me.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

RHT had a win bet on the 1 and 2 that race. He told me.

I dont bet PID.

[herkhorse]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

I dont bet PID.

6:44

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Im jumping in... Did not realize they even showed PID on Capital.

R5
20wp 2, currently 9-2.

7:06

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by herkhorse

6:44



7:06

Good catch.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by herkhorse

6:44



7:06

He meant he doesn't bet it with real life money. But he'll bet anything with DT money.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

RHT had a win bet on the 1 and 2 that race. He told me.

The 2 horse just came blasting up the rail to win the nightcap and pay $69.60 to win.

You're talking about a 100 day race meet - where both post 1 and post 2 are looking like virtual locks to show a flat bet profit for the entire meet - in all races - no matter what happens the rest of the way.

The rider of the 5 in the last race should be shot. About 3 different times today that a pacesetter was taken well off the rail - and an eventual winner came scooting up the inside of the pacesetter.

[hockey2315]

How have you been capitalizing, DrugS? I've been trying to find the horse who I think will get the lead and just betting that one to win for the most part. I'm up, but the lack of a good wagering menu is killing me.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

How have you been capitalizing, DrugS? I've been trying to find the horse who I think will get the lead and just betting that one to win for the most part. I'm up, but the lack of a good wagering menu is killing me.

You'll die when you see the good liquidity Betfair has on many of these races. I don't think I've ever seen a track where as many short priced horses can be tossed without caution due to projected wide trips and an almost hopeless chance of getting inside.

I'm obviously doing well because of the track - both in the paper and through betting. But I never end up catching these insane mega longshots like the one who won the last race.

* Last time out - the horse breaks from post 11 in an 11 horse field

* Two starts back - it breaks from post 9 in a 9 horse field

* Three starts back - it breaks from post 5 in a 6 horse field going 2 turns

So ... in it's last 3 races ... it's been drawn inside of a grand total of one horse .. and now it gets post 2 and it's 34/1 against dogsh!t.

The problem is that I can't bring myself to even stab at those kind of horses when they suck bulls - and this one didn't even have any speed and was cutting back to 5fs.

The jockey on the 5 horse got loose - but like a typical 8-for-233 jockey would - he kept the horse well off the rail the whole way while setting the pace. I have a good idea which jockeys are idiots and which ones aren't .. but sometimes you hope and they always fail you.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by iamthelurker

I dont understand you, but the 9 horse just won race two at presque isle.

I know this takes brain cells to understand ....but ..

The track bias is to inside-speed horses.

The 9 horse had clearly the most early speed in the field - he was a speed horse and all drawn inside of him were closers ... because he was sent hard out of the gate - he was able to get to the inside and enjoy an easy lead before the first turn ...



He ran away with the race at 13/1. Where you start from (post position) only matters so much because it's easier to get to the rail when you're starting on the rail. It's hard to get to the rail when you start from a wide draw.

A 120/1 longshot was gunned to the lead in race #1 - got clear early and had enough left to finish 3rd at triple digit odds.

[iamthelurker]

I was saying I dont understand you to clyde.

Before I was just asking you how you would approach handicapping the race knowing that its a short run into the first turn. With the stats so against the outside posts, did you still bet the 9?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by iamthelurker

Before I was just asking you how you would approach handicapping the race knowing that its a short run into the first turn. With the stats so against the outside posts, did you still bet the 9?

If the 9 in that race was breaking from posts 1 through 5 he would have been a near cinch. He had the best last race Beyer in the entire field - and the most early speed in the field.

However, because he had post 9, even with all closers to his inside - you basically had to hope he was ridden very aggressively. Which he was.

All meet long, jockeys aren't gunning horses early in routes. So - it would have been a tricky call. You bet at 13/1 and the rider bides his time, gets hung wide, and you're off the board. You don't bet at 13/1 and you watch him gun him - get a loose early lead - and win by a city block.