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#1
09-25-2010, 08:48 AM
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Fairplex favorites
In Thoroughbred races at distances up to 6.5 furlongs .. the post time favorite has won 51 out of 95 races so far this meet.
The racing is often comically uncompetitive on paper. Martin Pedroza is winning at a 36.5% clip and his ROI is only $1.54 .. which is a 23% loss on the betting dollar ... and I know he rode a first-time-starter this meet that won by a huge margin at like 6/1 odds. Take that one debuter away - and his ROI really goes in the tank. I've looked at almost every race so far this meet - and I think I've made a decent case of winning for maybe 3 horses the entire meet who've been 10/1 or more. There have been a lot of races where it's like the favorite is the only horse in the field who can even stand up. And there are some where everyone just looks so bad that you can't discount a longshot winner.. but such a longshot winner would truly have very little going for it on paper. Because of the way the takeout is in California - it's a little stupid to play cold exactas when you get a tri and super at the same takeout rate - but a lot of times when you're trying to sort out who will run 3rd or 4th ... it's often like trying to sort out the value in taking a horribly overbet bum at 9/2 vesus two slighty worse bum at 10/1 and 13/1 versus a slightly worse bum at 20/1 versus something that can barely even stand up at 35/1 versus something that barely has a pulse at 50/1. 
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