Weekend Stakes Beyers

[Kasept]

BEL Jockey Club Gold Cup S (G1): Haynesfield 107 (S. Asmussen/R. Dominguez)
BEL Flower Bowl Invitational S (G1): Ave 97 (R. Attfield/J. Castellano)
BEL Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (G1): Winchester 100 (C. Clement/C. Velasquez)
BEL Vosburgh S (G1): Girolamo 105 (S. bin Suroor/A. Garcia)
BEL Beldame S (G1): Life At Ten 100 (T. Pletcher/J. Velazquez)
BEL Kelso H (G2): Tizway 105 (H. Bond R. Maragh)
BEL Miss Grillo S (G3): Winter Memories 80 (J. Toner/J. Lezcano)
BEL Pilgrim S (G3): Air Support 74 (C. McGaughey/R. Maragh)
BEL Belle Cherie S: Kid Kate 86 (C. Brown/J. Lezcano)
BEL Star of Cozzene S: Colizeo 96 (T. Pletcher/R. Dominguez)

PHA Fitz Dixon Cotillion S (G2): Havre de Grace 104 (A. Dutrow/J. Rose)

OTH Norfolk S (G1): Jaycito 87 (M. Mitchell/M. Smith)
OTH Yellow Ribbon S (G1): Hibaayeb 95 (S. bin Suroor/R. Bejarano)
OTH Lady's Secret S (G1): Zenyatta 100 (J. Shirreffs/M. Smith)
OTH Goodwood S (G1): Richard's Kid 105 (B. Baffert/A. Quinonez)
OTH Clement L. Hirsch S (G1): Champ Pegasus 94 (R. Mandella/J. Rosario)
OTH Oak Leaf S (G1): Rigoletta 85 (D. Hendricks/D. Flores)
OTH Louis R. Rowan S: Mother Ruth 91 (B. Baffert/M. Garcia)

WO Durham Cup S (G3): Southdale 94 (I. Black/J. McAleney)
WO Carotene S: Jenny's So Great 86 (G. de Gannes/J. Ferrer)
WO Victorian Queen S: Medabuck 68 (T. Jordan J. McAleney)
WO Belle Geste S: Sugar Bay 89 (M. Benson/L. Contreras)

HOO Indiana Derby (G2): Lookin At Lucky 103 (B. Baffert/M. Garcia)
HOO Indiana Oaks (G2): Always a Princess 101 (B. Baffert/M. Garcia)
HOO Michael G. Schaefer Mile S: Jardim 96 (E. Caramori/J. Court)
HOO Miss Indiana S: Perfectly Candid 72 (R. Gorham/L. Goncalves)
HOO Indiana Futurity: Bellamy Jones 66 (R. Gorham/F. De La Cruz)
HOO Hoosier Breeders Sophomore S: Northern Candyride 80 (R. Kohnhorst/L. Goncalves)
HOO Hoosier Breeders Sophomore S: Whistlin' Jean 80(M. Lauer/R. Albarado)

FL New York Breeders' Futurity: Bug Juice 91 (B. Levine/J. Davila)

HAW Hawthorne Gold Cup H (G2): Redding Colliery 105 (K. McLaughlin/A. Napravnik)
HAW Robert F. Carey Memorial H (G3): Amazing Results 94 (C. Block/E. Perez)

LRL Maryland Million Classic S: Regal Solo 92 (D. Dilodovico/S. Russell)
LRL Maryland Million Lassie S: Doing Great 65 (M. Trombetta/J. Pimentel()
LRL Maryland Million Ladies S: My Sweet Nenana 72(D. O'Ryan/C. Ho)
LRL Maryland Million Nursery S: Steady Warrior 77 (G. Capuano/T. Dunkelberger)
LRL Maryland Million Oaks: Baltimore Belle 81 (J. Secor/V. Diaz)
LRL Maryland Million Turf S: Pocket Patch 86 (F. Stites/J. Joyce)
LRL Maryland Million Distaff H: Blind Date 87 (H. Smith/S. Russell)
LRL Maryland Million Turf Sprint H: Ben's Cat 90 (K. Leatherbury/J. Pimentel)
LRL Maryland Million Sprint H: Jack On the Rocks 96 (G. Gullo/S. Russell)

MTH Princeton S: Karmageddon 86 (D. Nunn/D. Beckner)

DEL Blue Hen S: Summer Laugh 71 (T. Pletcher/F. Jara)

TDN John W. Galbreath S: Startin Something 43 (T. Hamm/J. Lumpkins)
TDN Juvenile S: Jump Boots 45 (J. Woodard Y. Rosario)
TDN Best of Ohio Distaff S: Slides Choice 80(T. Hamm/J. Lumpkins)
TDN Best of Ohio Endurance S: Catlaunch 81 (I. Vazquez/L. Gonzalez)

[The Indomitable DrugS]

It took some real artistry to get Zenyatta's Beyer to 100.

They ran 3 route races at HP on Saturday. They were races 6, 7, and 9. The Norfolk, Lady's Secret, and Goodwood

Norfolk

* Jaycito broke his maiden in the Norfolk despite an impossible five wide trip on both turns - and was given an 87 Beyer



That figure represents a 9 point new career top - impressive considering he had a trip from hell.

* Fellow maiden Riveting Reason also had to overcome a wide trip and finish 3rd at odds of 36/1 ...



Despite the tough trip - he got an 82 Beyer - which represents an 11 point career top for him, and an improvement of 14 points over his last start.

* The horse who benefited with a ground saving trip was hapless 71/1 longshot 4th place finisher Clearance Clearance



he surged to a 20 point new career top - running an 80 despite having to eyeball stellar sprinter J P's Gusto for a long way on the early lead.


* And finally - J P Gusto was 2nd as the heavy favorite in the Norfolk despite racing very rank and struggling to settle - yet his Beyer was only 1 point lower than it was in his 4.5 length Grade 1 romping Del Mar Futurity win last time out.

I played against J P's Gusto in this race because of his pedigree. His sire Successful Appeal was an extremely good sprinter who once ran a 119 Beyer at 6fs. Twice competed in the BC Sprint. The dam of J P's Gusto - Call Her Magic - once ran a 107 Beyer going 5 furlongs on the turf, while winning a small stake by a huge margin at Delaware Park. She had major distance limitations - but was a freaky female turf sprinter.

Obviously ... The Norfolk figure seems a little too high .. but, remember, the whole objective seems to be to get Zenyatta to a 100.


Lady's Secret

* Zenyatta wore down Switch late to win. She was given a 100 Beyer.

Zenyatta was given a 95 Beyer for her Clement Hirsch win last time out - but only after a variant was split with the days other route race - which was run 30 minutes earlier. Because of the very slow pace that benefited Dance to My Tune and Rinterval - and hurt Zenyatta - the final time figure should have been in the mid to high 80's last time. Dance to My Tune has been beaten twice since, including getting dusted by 9 lengths as the 3/5 favorite at Fairplex in a 50K stake. Rinterval, who has lost 20 of her last 21 races against a lot of crummy competion, has yet to run back.

* 3yo filly Switch was 2nd and was given a 99 Beyer.



*pace setter Moon De French (who had failed to hit the board in every prior attempt in non restricted stakes races) and Satan's Quick Chick (first off of a 9 month layoff - and was 6th at Presque Isle Downs in her most recent attempt at a synthetic route) dead heated for 3rd place .. both earning Grade 1 black type. Emmy Darling - who was claimed last time out - rounded out the field.


Goodwood

* I can't recall the last time a horse was off the board as a 3/5 favorite in a Grade 1 stakes race - and still ran a new lifetime top Beyer in the same race. Well, that's what happed with soundly beaten 4th place finisher Twirling Candy .. his 99 Beyer in defeat represents a new career top for him.

* Richard's Kid won this race with a 105 Beyer .... 9 points higher than the 96 he ran in winning the Pacific Classic last time out.

Did Richard's Kid really improve 5 lengths over his Pac Classic repeat win? Keep in mind, 5 lengths on synthetic is HUGE .. it's typically the difference between first and sixth in a lot of races.

* Crown of Thorns ran an awesome race second off of the year layoff - and stretching out from 7f to 9f. That's a brutal stretch out on synthetic - even a little more so than turf in my opinion. Anyway - he overcame a lot of pressure applied by Twirling Candy - and ran a great race to get a 104.

* 3rd place finish Dakota Phone got a 100 Beyer. He was also 3rd to Richard's Kid in the Pacific Classic last time out - there he ran a 94 Beyer. His Beyer spiked 6 points. Coming into the Goodwood - he had run figures of 94, 95, 95, 91, 89, 86 in his last six starts.


To me, it looks like everyones figures were inflated by about 5 points just to get Zenyatta to a 100.

[10 pnt move up]

Your using dirt logic to critic figures on a surface were figures mean nothing........WHY?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

Your using dirt logic to critic figures on a surface were figures mean nothing........WHY?

If you think figures mean nothing on a synthetic surface - you have absolutely no idea what you're talking about.

In truth, they certainly mean a whole lot more on synthetic than turf - and at face value, like most people take them - they mean a whole lot more on synthetic than dirt as well.

I have a lot of experience handicapping and betting on races on synthetic tracks - you're not talking to someone during year one of Keeneland polytrack when no one had any idea what to make of it.

Mikey Smith!! Yay!!

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

If you think figures mean nothing on a synthetic surface - you have absolutely no idea what you're talking about.

In truth, they certainly mean a whole lot more on synthetic than turf - and at face value, like most people take them - they mean a whole lot more on synthetic than dirt as well.

I have a lot of experience handicapping and betting on races on synthetic tracks - you're not talking to someone during year one of Keeneland polytrack when no one had any idea what to make of it.

Mikey Smith!! Yay!!

Go wash some socks.

[miraja2]

Do you think the inflation is merely the result of the Beyer people being aware that others perceive them as anti-Zenyatta? Are they inflating the figs simply to avoid being criticized for supposedly having an agenda against her?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Kasept

HAW Hawthorne Gold Cup H (G2): Redding Colliery TBD (K. McLaughlin/A. Napravnik)

This one should be good.

After the top three finisher - you could hit a golf ball between the margins of each horse from 4th place to 5th - 5th to 6th - 6th to 7th - and 7th to 8th.

Redding Colliery went way too fast early and somehow held in a race that absolutley collaped in behind him. 2nd and 3rd place were 17.5 lengths and 19.5 lengths back after just 6 furlongs.

http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRaces...=20101002&RN=8

RC seems to have run a fucl<ing awesome race... but I have no pace pars or anything from Hawthorne to confirm that water is wet.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRaces...=20101002&RN=8

Temple City - a Dynaformer horse trained by Carla Gains who beat Richard's Kid at Del Mar - and was beaten just 3 lengths in the Pacific Classic last time out ... he was offically beaten more than 90+ lengths in that race.

Yeah, I'd say he didn't care much for the dirt ... or the hot pace.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Redding Colliery went way too fast early and somehow held in a race that absolutley collaped in behind him. 2nd and 3rd place were 17.5 lengths and 19.5 lengths back after just 6 furlongs.

http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRaces...=20101002&RN=8

RC seems to have run a fucl<ing awesome race... but I have no pace pars or anything from Hawthorne to confirm that water is wet.

And the other dirt-route race, an 8.5f claimer featured a :49 half mile, where the horse in last place (a 25/1 longshot) still closed and won, with the pace-setter fading to 4th.

[hockey2315]

Redding Colliery got a 105 Beyer
Pace Line: 89+14 95+11 96+5 94 Final

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Redding Colliery got a 105 Beyer
Pace Line: 89+14 95+11 96+5 94 Final

Is that a Moss Pace Figure pace line?

If so, the +14 would be to the half, +11 to three-quarters, +5 to a mile?

[hockey2315]

Ya it's Moss. . . You're right about the distances.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

This one should be good.

After the top three finisher - you could hit a golf ball between the margins of each horse from 4th place to 5th - 5th to 6th - 6th to 7th - and 7th to 8th.

Redding Colliery went way too fast early and somehow held in a race that absolutley collaped in behind him. 2nd and 3rd place were 17.5 lengths and 19.5 lengths back after just 6 furlongs.

http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRaces...=20101002&RN=8

RC seems to have run a fucl<ing awesome race... but I have no pace pars or anything from Hawthorne to confirm that water is wet.

Figs for the race are a crapshoot. The only other route is suspect at best, and they never run the 10f distance at Haw except for this race. The chances that 105 are legit after the pace he set are slim and none in my opinion.

Given the above, I have nothing to base this on but common sense. If I used the same variant as Beyer, his numbers for me would be pace of 148 (6f call) and final figure of 106. I am giving him a 142/100, and that comes out to a combined 111 the way I do things, basically matching his career best. It fits pretty well with Giant Oak and give the 3rd place horse a new top by a few points. Am I right? Hell if I know, but it is what I'm putting down on paper.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Figs for the race are a crapshoot. The only other route is suspect at best, and they never run the 10f distance at Haw except for this race. The chances that 105 are legit after the pace he set are slim and none in my opinion.

Given the above, I have nothing to base this on but common sense. If I used the same variant as Beyer, his numbers for me would be pace of 148 (6f call) and final figure of 106. I am giving him a 142/100, and that comes out to a combined 111 the way I do things, basically matching his career best. It fits pretty well with Giant Oak and give the 3rd place horse a new top by a few points. Am I right? Hell if I know, but it is what I'm putting down on paper.

Thanks.

What's your take on the Hollywood Park route Beyer's for Saturday's card? Do you also think they're about 5 points fast?

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Thanks.

What's your take on the Hollywood Park route Beyer's for Saturday's card? Do you also think they're about 5 points fast?

That is tougher for me because I don't use the artificial synthetic adjustment that Beyer has made for his rubber numbers. I think he has the variant about right, but that makes my figures 5 to 6 points lower already.