Why Won't Quality Road Win The Classic?

[tanner12oz]

i started looking at stuff today for the classic and so based upon quick analysis i like quality road...not sold on zenyatta (if you disagree take it to ya zenyatta thread) lookin at lucky has issues, rail trip has issues...lots of question marks out there....quality road seems like hes gonna be healthy, run his race and hit the wire first...at favorable odds...i expect 6/1-8/1 ballpark

[freddymo]

Yep and well pickeled to boot

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Better be concrete.

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by tanner12oz

i started looking at stuff today for the classic and so based upon quick analysis i like quality road...not sold on zenyatta (if you disagree take it to ya zenyatta thread) lookin at lucky has issues, rail trip has issues...lots of question marks out there....quality road seems like hes gonna be healthy, run his race and hit the wire first...at favorable odds...i expect 6/1-8/1 ballpark

Can't see it. Its Zenyatta, Blame and Lucky coming down the stretch.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by tanner12oz

i started looking at stuff today for the classic and so based upon quick analysis i like quality road...not sold on zenyatta (if you disagree take it to ya zenyatta thread) lookin at lucky has issues, rail trip has issues...lots of question marks out there....quality road seems like hes gonna be healthy, run his race and hit the wire first...at favorable odds...i expect 6/1-8/1 ballpark

Like last year, Ill be using 2 horses to end all pick 3's and 4's.... Z and QR.

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Like last year, Ill be using 2 horses to end all pick 3's and 4's.... Z and QR.

You really think QR can win this? Unless there is a major change in who will be there I will be surprised.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by knickslions2

You really think QR can win this? Unless there is a major change in who will be there I will be surprised.

Yea I do. I think the other speeds are horrible, he will sit 3rd or 4th and I dont see it being that hot up front. Haynesfield is not going 22.3-46... He is going more like 48, just crawling.... QR gives them the slip turning for home, then is he good enough?

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Yea I do. I think the other speeds are horrible, he will sit 3rd or 4th and I dont see it being that hot up front. Haynesfield is not going 22.3-46... He is going more like 48, just crawling.... QR gives them the slip turning for home, then is he good enough?

The pace will still be pretty good up front and the 1 1/4 seems too long for him.

[classhandicapper]

I don't think we can tell until we see the final entries, post position draw, and quite possibly even how the track is playing. There was an inside bias at CD a few years ago that impacted the results.

I think it's fair to say that 10F is unlikely to be his optimal distance and the typical BC field will be so loaded with quality speed/pressers that QR is going to find himself in deep waters in the last furlong. However, he wasn't so abysmal at 10F last year to think he couldn't win if the race comes up weaker than expected or he makes the lead easier than expected on a track that's carrying speed.

He was a short and rushed horse for the Travers, but carried his speed a little better the next time despite losing to Summer Bird who was an excellent and peaking rival at the time. In addition, horses without the stamina to get 10f as 3YOs sometimes develop it as 4YOs.

Finally, in his loss to Blame this year I think there is some evidence that the rail was not the best place to be that day. It wasn't until Blame swung out that he wore down QR late while QR was still inside.

Personally, I'm probably going to play against him at the probable odds and likely pace scenario, but I don't hate him as much as some people.

[Danzig]

blame beat him at 1 1/8th, i don't see a different result when it's longer and they're talking about building QR's stamina.

[JohnGalt1]

Not if he goes psycho at the gate.

[2Hot4TV]

Originally Posted by JohnGalt1

Not if he goes psycho at the gate.

I think Churchill Downs is a NO FLY ZONE.