Some preliminary BC thoughts

Scav · #1 10-22-2010, 11:50 PM

My friend printed out the special that Thorograph put on sale yesterday and I was able to take a look at them at the OTB today. Quick couple of things that caught my eye

1) Sidney's Candy's race was not that impressive number wise. He is slow and won't get it done

2) Courgeous Cat's last was a prep in my mind, almost the very same situation as last year, he is a great use on BC Day, it looks very 'mad scientist' of Mott, don't know if he can win, but he should be very long price and could run as well as he did last year.

3) I have never seen two year old colts as fast as Uncle Mo and Boys of Tosconova. It is scary and not only that, but if they develop the way they are suppose to (from 2 year olds to 3 or even 4), they will break barriers, chances are they are close to their peak though

4) How scary is Girolamo. Look at last years pattern and compare it to this year; same pattern, only faster. He could be a very strong play

5) Lastly, in terms of Zenyatta, she is slow in comparsion to others. My heart wants her to romp but I will probably do what I did last year and leave her off, hindsight is I probably f'd up last year not using her as she was at home and had competitive numbers. I just don't see her beating Blame or Lookin at Lucky on this track with the trips they are probably gonna get.

Indian Charlie · #2 10-22-2010, 11:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

My friend printed out the special that Thorograph put on sale yesterday and I was able to take a look at them at the OTB today. Quick couple of things that caught my eye

1) Sidney's Candy's race was not that impressive number wise. He is slow and won't get it done

2) Courgeous Cat's last was a prep in my mind, almost the very same situation as last year, he is a great use on BC Day, it looks very 'mad scientist' of Mott, don't know if he can win, but he should be very long price and could run as well as he did last year.

3) I have never seen two year old colts as fast as Uncle Mo and Boys of Tosconova. It is scary and not only that, but if they develop the way they are suppose to (from 2 year olds to 3 or even 4), they will break barriers, chances are they are close to their peak though

4) How scary is Girolamo. Look at last years pattern and compare it to this year; same pattern, only faster. He could be a very strong play

5) Lastly, in terms of Zenyatta, she is slow in comparsion to others. My heart wants her to romp but I will probably do what I did last year and leave her off, hindsight is I probably f'd up last year not using her as she was at home and had competitive numbers. I just don't see her beating Blame or Lookin at Lucky on this track with the trips they are probably gonna get.

I wonder what Sidneys Candy's number would have been if the race had been stopped after a mile.

blackthroatedwind · #3 10-23-2010, 12:25 AM

At the risk of creating a frenzy.....plenty of very fast 2YOs have gone on to be even faster 3YOs. If these horses are for real then they will move forward. These are hardly the fastest 2YOs evah.

ateamstupid · #4 10-23-2010, 03:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

At the risk of creating a frenzy.....plenty of very fast 2YOs have gone on to be even faster 3YOs. If these horses are for real then they will move forward. These are hardly the fastest 2YOs evah.

johnny pinwheel · #5 10-23-2010, 08:02 AM

how can you possibly tell anything about the two year olds until they go two turns? plus those races are the worst betting events on the BC card...usually. uncle mo 8-5.......boys....9-5.. i'm giving them those odds because the money will get split up...when one of them romps at 9 furlongs i'll start thinking they are good. every year its the same thing and the BC winner in this race is almost always a dud ....later. not that one of them might be good....but these numbers are useless for predicting longer distances...i don't see how this tranlates to them being fast at 3 years old and 4 yo...what makes you think they will be racing then? the game does not work that way (very much) anymore 2yo and 3yo are like different careers. with all the good racing those two days these are the races i avoid. heard the same crap about war pass a few years ago,,,..the horse could not make the distance in his dreams.... but he was the best 2 yo ever.....lol

The Indomitable DrugS · #6 10-23-2010, 08:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

3) I have never seen two year old colts as fast as Uncle Mo and Boys of Tosconova. It is scary and not only that, but if they develop the way they are suppose to (from 2 year olds to 3 or even 4), they will break barriers, chances are they are close to their peak though

Everything is getting faster all the time on Thoro-Graph.

$10,000 claimers at Mountaineer are running fast enough numbers to win Breeders Cup Sprints held ten years ago. The scale is a runaway.

RockHardTen1985 · #7 10-23-2010, 06:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

My friend printed out the special that Thorograph put on sale yesterday and I was able to take a look at them at the OTB today. Quick couple of things that caught my eye

1) Sidney's Candy's race was not that impressive number wise. He is slow and won't get it done

2) Courgeous Cat's last was a prep in my mind, almost the very same situation as last year, he is a great use on BC Day, it looks very 'mad scientist' of Mott, don't know if he can win, but he should be very long price and could run as well as he did last year.

3) I have never seen two year old colts as fast as Uncle Mo and Boys of Tosconova. It is scary and not only that, but if they develop the way they are suppose to (from 2 year olds to 3 or even 4), they will break barriers, chances are they are close to their peak though

4) How scary is Girolamo. Look at last years pattern and compare it to this year; same pattern, only faster. He could be a very strong play

5) Lastly, in terms of Zenyatta, she is slow in comparsion to others. My heart wants her to romp but I will probably do what I did last year and leave her off, hindsight is I probably f'd up last year not using her as she was at home and had competitive numbers. I just don't see her beating Blame or Lookin at Lucky on this track with the trips they are probably gonna get.

1- I am undecided on.
2- I totally agree.
3- B@T is a toss, UM is 100% horse to beat.
4- Likely single for me at this point.
5- ?? Blame is not much horse, IMO. L@L could freak.

Hoist Her Flag · #8 10-23-2010, 06:47 PM

Put me in the Courageous Cat camp also, totally think the last race was prep, made nice 3 wide move into the turn, cuts back to mile, ran 2nd in the race last year.

NTamm1215 · #9 10-23-2010, 06:49 PM

Courageous Cat is out.

Scav · #10 10-23-2010, 07:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Courageous Cat is out.

Me plus RHT = way too much weight

ateamstupid · #11 10-23-2010, 07:03 PM

Blame is not much horse, but Zenyatta's a champion. You can't make it up.

RockHardTen1985 · #12 10-23-2010, 08:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Blame is not much horse, but Zenyatta's a champion. You can't make it up.

Blame... Defeats a horse who comes out of the race with a career ending injury.... Thats clearly his second biggest win. Beats QR by a nose, running the same speed figure. Then gets destroyed by a decent NY bred.

Zenyatta..Undefeated multiple BC winning champion.
Whats being made up?

RockHardTen1985 · #13 10-23-2010, 08:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Courageous Cat is out.

Link? Or is that you insulting me?

NTamm1215 · #14 10-23-2010, 08:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Link? Or is that you insulting me?

Just read the threads on this site.

lemoncrush · #15 10-24-2010, 11:16 AM

[quote=RockHardTen1985;710257]
3- B@T is a toss, UM is 100% horse to beat.QUOTE]

Still waiting anxiously to hear your reasoning behind this. Instead of tossing BOT in the Juvy just because you were so wrong about him in the Hopeful, give us some kind of actual sensible reasoning on why he should be tossed. Current Form, Pedigree, pace scenerio...anything instead of your random cheerleading-like assertions. I'm not saying to bet him at low odds, I just want to know one reason why he should be tossed.

Danzig · #16 10-24-2010, 11:57 AM

i think the big question is what is gained by making selections this far ahead? do you get better odds? a bigger payoff? how can you successfully handicap without having all entries, post positions? what about the weather? any bias on race day? if you don't know all the entries, how can you attempt to figure out how the race will be run?

hockey2315 · #17 10-24-2010, 12:06 PM

These races are so impossibly difficult to handicap, that I think it's beneficial to have ideas at this point. . . it's inevitable to have opinions on horses at this point anyways if you've followed the game as close as most of us have. You get in trouble, though, when you get locked into something and can't adjust to new information.

Danzig · #18 10-24-2010, 01:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315

These races are so impossibly difficult to handicap, that I think it's beneficial to have ideas at this point. . . it's inevitable to have opinions on horses at this point anyways if you've followed the game as close as most of us have. You get in trouble, though, when you get locked into something and can't adjust to new information.

which is why i can understand discussion at this point, but not locked in selections. also, i think some get into personal preference, rather than looking with an unbiased point of view. if you have a rooting interest, great. but when money is involved, you have to set aside the rest. there's still a lot of info to take in, also have to see how the horses do coming in.