Least & Most Vulnerable Favorites?

Sightseek · #1 10-30-2010, 08:14 PM

While I know some smart ass is going to comment that the fields haven't been officially posted yet (and we haven't even discussed the weather

), but I am sure we are all busy handicapping when we should be out Trick or Treating...which favorites in the Breeder's Cup do you see as being the least and most vulnerable?

(I fear this will become another Z thread

)

ateamstupid · #2 10-30-2010, 08:32 PM

Most Vulnerable
Zenyatta
Rightly So
Tell a Kelly
Uncle Mo
Workforce
Girolamo

I think just about every favorite is vulnerable. If I had to pick three that are least likely to lose, it'd probably be Winter Memories, Midday and either Goldikova or Giant Oak.

Scav · #3 10-30-2010, 08:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Most Vulnerable
Zenyatta
Rightly So
Tell a Kelly
Uncle Mo
Workforce
Girolamo

I think just about every favorite is vulnerable. If I had to pick three that are least likely to lose, it'd probably be Winter Memories, Midday and either Goldikova or Giant Oak.

While I am probably using Giant Oak, his exercise rider was helping us out this summer and he told us he is the biggest hanger. Said that he just drops the bit when he gets towards the lead and while he has talent, just wont' pass horses.

pweizer · #4 10-30-2010, 08:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

While I am probably using Giant Oak, his exercise rider was helping us out this summer and he told us he is the biggest hanger. Said that he just drops the bit when he gets towards the lead and while he has talent, just wont' pass horses.

I can't believe Giant Oak will go favored. However, if so, he has to be the most vulnerable favorite of all times. When is the last time he won a race? Seriously, I can't find it on the page. It must have been two years ago.

This says a lot about Giant Oak but even more about the silliness of the marathon as a division.

Paul

randallscott35 · #5 10-30-2010, 08:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pweizer

I can't believe Giant Oak will go favored. However, if so, he has to be the most vulnerable favorite of all times. When is the last time he won a race? Seriously, I can't find it on the page. It must have been two years ago.

This says a lot about Giant Oak but even more about the silliness of the marathon as a division.

Paul

Offshore he is favored. I can't understand why but then I can't understand the idea of a dirt marathon race anyway. I don't think I'm betting this race at all.

pweizer · #6 10-30-2010, 09:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Offshore he is favored. I can't understand why but then I can't understand the idea of a dirt marathon race anyway. I don't think I'm betting this race at all.

I hope he goes favored. I am not sure I will be this race either but at first glance, Awesome Gem looks interesting to me. While no win machine himself, he has won graded stakes races and he has faced much better consistently than will line up for the marathon.

Paul

Princess Doreen · #7 11-01-2010, 12:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

While I am probably using Giant Oak, his exercise rider was helping us out this summer and he told us he is the biggest hanger. Said that he just drops the bit when he gets towards the lead and while he has talent, just wont' pass horses.

17 races in the past 2 years with nary a win - five 2nds and two 3rds, and he's the favorite to win the Marathon? I must be missing something.

hoovesupsideyourhead · #8 11-01-2010, 12:55 PM

forever together
and mine that bird
will get none of my plays..they both look done..

NTamm1215 · #9 11-01-2010, 12:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

forever together
and mine that bird
will get none of my plays..they both look done..

Careful out on that limb

hockey2315 · #10 11-01-2010, 12:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

forever together
and mine that bird
will get none of my plays..they both look done..

Can either of them be close to favorites?

RockHardTen1985 · #11 10-31-2010, 01:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Most Vulnerable
Zenyatta
Rightly So
Tell a Kelly
Uncle Mo
Workforce
Girolamo

I think just about every favorite is vulnerable. If I had to pick three that are least likely to lose, it'd probably be Winter Memories, Midday and either Goldikova or Giant Oak.

I dont like Giant Oak at all.....
Rightly So I agree, but Im not sure she will be favorite.
Tell a Kelly totally agree, but is she going to be favorite over GOAT and Euro?
Uncle Mo looks tough.
Workforce looks really tough.
Girolamo looks strong to me also.

ateamstupid · #12 10-31-2010, 01:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

I dont like Giant Oak at all.....
Rightly So I agree, but Im not sure she will be favorite.
Tell a Kelly totally agree, but is she going to be favorite over GOAT and Euro?
Uncle Mo looks tough.
Workforce looks really tough.
Girolamo looks strong to me also.

Uncle Mo doesn't do it for me. Obviously very talented, but he's yet to show he can rate and it's tough to take that kind of price on a horse with two starts against a lot of speed. Workforce, likewise, has raced five times since debuting last September, won one of the weaker Arcs I can remember, now has to turn around relatively quickly and ship across the pond. Not for me. I'll use defensively, but I'll try to beat him with Behkabad and to a lesser extent Debussy and Winchester.

Indian Charlie · #13 10-31-2010, 02:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Uncle Mo doesn't do it for me. Obviously very talented, but he's yet to show he can rate and it's tough to take that kind of price on a horse with two starts against a lot of speed. Workforce, likewise, has raced five times since debuting last September, won one of the weaker Arcs I can remember, now has to turn around relatively quickly and ship across the pond. Not for me. I'll use defensively, but I'll try to beat him with Behkabad and to a lesser extent Debussy and Winchester.

Uncle Mo has shown perfectly well that he can rate. He rated very easily on the lead in both starts. Especially last time, he had that other horse trying for the lead, but he was very well within himself, then drew off.

ateamstupid · #14 10-31-2010, 02:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Uncle Mo has shown perfectly well that he can rate. He rated very easily on the lead in both starts. Especially last time, he had that other horse trying for the lead, but he was very well within himself, then drew off.

Rate behind horses. It's foolish to assume they can do it, especially when they're so lightly raced. I disagree that he rated so well by the way in the Champagne. He could've easily let I'm Steppin' it Up go on with it, but he didn't want to. If he goes :22 and :45 in the Juvy, he'll get dusted in the stretch.

randallscott35 · #15 10-30-2010, 08:33 PM

Faves I don't like.

-Winter Memories
-Uncle Mo
-Blind Luck
-Big Drama and Giarlomo
-Zenyatta.

The others don't say avoid or the faves will be near 5-1.

GPK · #16 10-30-2010, 08:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Faves I don't like.

-Winter Memories
-Uncle Mo
-Blind Luck
-Big Drama and Giarlomo
-Zenyatta.

The others don't say avoid or the faves will be near 5-1.

Rand, why don't you like Winter Memories?

randallscott35 · #17 10-30-2010, 08:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GPK

Rand, why don't you like Winter Memories?

Very tough to take a filly at a short price in this race when you don't know what to make of the Euros. Her last was really really big as well. Yes she gets 4 weeks from it but the number power of Interactif last year should show that stringing enormous turf efforts back to back for 2 year olds is difficult IMO. Thus I wouldn't say she can't get a piece but the risk reward will leave her off Pick 4s and doubles for me.

ateamstupid · #18 10-30-2010, 08:45 PM

I can't possibly fathom someone leaving Winter Memories out of a Pick 4 completely. She's easily the most likely winner IMO, and even if you don't think so, if you get 3/4 because you left out a $6 horse, you really should be smacked.

randallscott35 · #19 10-30-2010, 08:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I can't possibly fathom someone leaving Winter Memories out of a Pick 4 completely. She's easily the most likely winner IMO, and even if you don't think so, if you get 3/4 because you left out a $6 horse, you really should be smacked.

That's what makes horse racing great. It won't bother me in the slightest.

RockHardTen1985 · #20 10-31-2010, 01:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I can't possibly fathom someone leaving Winter Memories out of a Pick 4 completely. She's easily the most likely winner IMO, and even if you don't think so, if you get 3/4 because you left out a $6 horse, you really should be smacked.

Im not sure of my pick 4 strategy yet, but I might be tossing her in pick 3's and trying to press the Euros... Who simply might be better.