Scat Daddy or Circular Quay?

In your opinion, which Pletcher baby is better and will win the Hopeful? (if you think Pletcher will win the race, which appears most likely)

I think Scat Daddy is a better horse and will assert himself Monday as the early deserving favorite for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile....You could tell he was special while watching him train at Churchill Downs the two weeks before the Derby with all of Pletcher's first string.

His dam side suggests he'll at least get the 1 1/16-mile distance of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (although I'm not sure the Derby distance will suit him at three being that he is a Johanessburg...may be more of a miler type, we'll see...)

He is the goods though....

It may be neither if the Lukas horse runs his race. I've seen em all train, and Lukas is training as good or better than anyone. Circular Quay is training real well in his last two works, only had one subpar breeze.

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

In your opinion, which Pletcher baby is better and will win the Hopeful? (if you think Pletcher will win the race, which appears most likely)

I think Scat Daddy is a better horse and will assert himself Monday as the early deserving favorite for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile....You could tell he was special while watching him train at Churchill Downs the two weeks before the Derby with all of Pletcher's first string.

His dam side suggests he'll at least get the 1 1/16-mile distance of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (although I'm not sure the Derby distance will suit him at three being that he is a Johanessburg...may be more of a miler type, we'll see...)

He is the goods though....

God help me with the genetics crapola. Just watch the horses RUN and report. Thats the goods.

Originally Posted by pgardn

God help me with the genetics crapola. Just watch the horses RUN and report. Thats the goods.

Anybody can do that...I would rather use my knowledge to forecast...

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

Anybody can do that...I would rather use my knowledge to forecast...

Anybody can make wild guesses based on the third cousin on the sire's side also. I would rather read about how you guys think the horses move. What you like about the stride. What you think about the horses attitude. That is not easy. Some horses have very efficient strides that look awful. Some horses have great looking strides that wear them out.

We dont forecast hurricanes by planting a ship 50 miles off shore and having them report back saying, "Hey guys, the weather is getting rough out here". Thats the level of accuracy with horse genetics. We got satellites for weather and computers. We dont have this kind of technology yet for horses, so stop it with the witchcraft (apologies to the Wiccans).

[Danzig]

i thought it was barbaros front leg action that was mentioned....and he had a bad step with his back leg. or am i missing something? is bad action up front a cause for alarm regarding the hind legs? would it be that the horse is 'leaping' somewhat?

or is the fact that barbaro took a bad step just coincidental to him having high action up front?

Originally Posted by Danzig188

i thought it was barbaros front leg action that was mentioned....and he had a bad step with his back leg. or am i missing something? is bad action up front a cause for alarm regarding the hind legs? would it be that the horse is 'leaping' somewhat?

or is the fact that barbaro took a bad step just coincidental to him having high action up front?

Yes, because as I mentioned last week in the Bluegrass Cat thread when he broke down was that if someting is ailing a horse up front, they will always acknowledge the pain ad take care of themselves by over-compensating and transferring all of their wait to the rear end - which makes for a very stressful situation on the rear legs whe running 40 MPH with a man on your back....

Many very sharp horsemen whos opinion I value have told me that when a horse that has fair to good comformation breaks down - it is usually a result of him doing so because something else was bothering him that forced the over-compensation of weight shift to the "good" legs....think about it...it really makes a world of sense...

Bluegrass Cat ran the other day with front wraps for the first time and he wound up coming out of the race with a broken rear leg.....not saying that it is a coindicence but it at least begs the question....

Same with Barbaro...he was a huge, heavy animal who was very fast and had just breezed 46 flat at CD ad then ran lights out fast in the grueling Derby...now, he is preparing for the Preakness two-weeks later and he is restless in the gate - maybe because something was stinging him and he knew what was about to happen (horses aren't dumb when it comes to taking care of themselves) - ad when he broke he over compensated for the concussion on the front end and put too much stress on the rear end with his 1,300-pound frame trying to get into gear...then, snap.....Remember, he has VERY high action like a turf horse due to his pedigree and when he hits the ground he did slap it pretty darn hard for a horse of his size....on top of that, he ran over the God-awful Gulfstream Park track twice before the Derby that broke SEVERAL of horses down and is reknowned for it's horrificly hard training surface by many top horseman.....Was there really another cause for why Matz chose to sit Barabaro out for that long layoff coming up to the Derby???

....Food for thought....

AND NO, I do not think there was a conspiracy with Barabro's health!!!

...Let me make that very clear...I'm simply pointing out a series of events that are factual that could not have been a coincidence....

Remember, no matter how good of a horseman you are, very few of them actually catch something wrong with there horses from a health standpoint when it first occurs...it is too damn tough ad anybody out there that understands the area of which I' talking about knows what I'm talking about....Look at Lost in the Fog for example...hell, he could have and probably did have tumors growing in him whe he ran in the Breeders' Cup last year......ad he defiantely had them when he won at Churchill Downs earlier this year in impressive fashion...

The bottomline is that horses are fragile ad can go bad at any minute...their bodies are set up to FAIL for what we put them through in this game...ad last of all, no matter how good a horseman is, many still don't discover whe their horses are hurting until something else happens down the line....pure factad any smart track vet will tell you the same....

[2Hot4TV]

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

In your opinion, which Pletcher baby is better and will win the Hopeful? (if you think Pletcher will win the race, which appears most likely)

I think Scat Daddy is a better horse and will assert himself Monday as the early deserving favorite for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile....You could tell he was special while watching him train at Churchill Downs the two weeks before the Derby with all of Pletcher's first string.

His dam side suggests he'll at least get the 1 1/16-mile distance of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (although I'm not sure the Derby distance will suit him at three being that he is a Johanessburg...may be more of a miler type, we'll see...)

He is the goods though....

Handicapping rule#2 Study long study wrong

Originally Posted by 2Hot4TV

Handicapping rule#2 Study long study wrong

Scat Daddy is a better horse and will beat him in the Breeders' Cup...maye not the Champagne, but in the Breeders' Cup when they stretchout around two turns and the real test in on the line....another horrid trip by Scat Daddy in the Hopeful that cost him, plus I think Circular Quay is looking more ad more like a one-turn closer specialist...we'll see, but my gut says he won't be as affective going two-turns for several reasons (and yes, I'm aware that he is a Thunder Gulch....)

Johhny V. needs to be arrested for the multiple bad rides he's already put on this talented colt....unreal in a 5-horse field....Oh yeah, he stumbled BADLY at the start ad had to be used three or so times in the race to the far turn if anybody noticed...he is the best of this generation...you can't win 'em all...thats horse racing...bad luck plays a factor..

[Revolution]

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

Scat Daddy is a better horse and will beat him in the Breeders' Cup...maye not the Champagne, but in the Breeders' Cup when they stretchout around two turns and the real test in on the line....another horrid trip by Scat Daddy in the Hopeful that cost him, plus I think Circular Quay is looking more ad more like a one-turn closer specialist...we'll see, but my gut says he won't be as affective going two-turns for several reasons (and yes, I'm aware that he is a Thunder Gulch....)

Johhny V. needs to be arrested for the multiple bad rides he's already put on this talented colt....unreal in a 5-horse field....Oh yeah, he stumbled BADLY at the start ad had to be used three or so times in the race to the far turn if anybody noticed...he is the best of this generation...you can't win 'em all...thats horse racing...bad luck plays a factor..

it is hard to say Scat Daddy is a better horse. i agree that the race set up for circular quay but he ran an impressive race. i like circular quay more as they stretch out too but it is way too premature to say any of these horses will win the bcj. if i had to guess i would think a horse that was not even entered today would win.

[irishtrekker]

Originally Posted by Revolution

it is hard to say Scat Daddy is a better horse. i agree that the race set up for circular quay but he ran an impressive race. i like circular quay more as they stretch out too but it is way too premature to say any of these horses will win the bcj. if i had to guess i would think a horse that was not even entered today would win.

I think that's a really good point. Both of these horses look great, but it seems a little early to call either of them the BCJ winner.

Although I'd go with CQ if I had to pick.

Originally Posted by irishtrekker

I think that's a really good point. Both of these horses look great, but it seems a little early to call either of them the BCJ winner.

Although I'd go with CQ if I had to pick.

And I like the fact that somebody will at least make a bold prediction on this thread...I respect that....Yes-men with gutless predictions and post-race analysis are for another game...maybe like ballet?...

BE BOLD PEOPLE...Yes, racetrackers are negative people by nature and will always bash you when you are wrong, but who cares? I found it as a great way to learn the game and learn humility at the same time....

The people I hate the worst are the guys (and you know who you are) who jump on horses bandwagons AFTER they accomplish something, ad then claim that all along they knew the horse was great.....you know what I mean?...People that put themselves out there at least aren't looked at as frauds. IMO...have fun, make predictions!

[2Hot4TV]

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

Scat Daddy is a better horse and will beat him in the Breeders' Cup...maye not the Champagne, but in the Breeders' Cup when they stretchout around two turns and the real test in on the line....another horrid trip by Scat Daddy in the Hopeful that cost him, plus I think Circular Quay is looking more ad more like a one-turn closer specialist...we'll see, but my gut says he won't be as affective going two-turns for several reasons (and yes, I'm aware that he is a Thunder Gulch....)

Johhny V. needs to be arrested for the multiple bad rides he's already put on this talented colt....unreal in a 5-horse field....Oh yeah, he stumbled BADLY at the start ad had to be used three or so times in the race to the far turn if anybody noticed...he is the best of this generation...you can't win 'em all...thats horse racing...bad luck plays a factor..

You may be right about CQs future being a late running sprinter and his action is hard on his hind legs, just like Barbaro's was.

Scat Daddy was just out of gas coming home. I will wait to handicap his next race, it's alittle too early now.

Originally Posted by 2Hot4TV

You may be right about CQs future being a late running sprinter and his action is hard on his hind legs, just like Barbaro's was.

Scat Daddy was just out of gas coming home. I will wait to handicap his next race, it's alittle too early now.

2Hot, I'm not quite sure about his action. But i will say this, that horse is running completely within his own authority. Bejarano said in the Bashford that the horse himself dove to the inside and all he did was hang on and try to get through the hole.
Gomez never asked the horse to start running when he did and he took off like a jet.
Part of his appeal to me is that while he is a headstrong horse that does exactly what he wants to do exactly when he decides to do it, is that he has some personality and loves what he is doing out there. he appears to enjoy racing quite a lot. Its the rare horse who at an early age understands what his objective is out there.
He honestly seems to enjoy what he is doing. I can't find a recent 2yo to compare him too. I honestly think hes no plodder, and I think he will be better going longer when he can stalk moreso than drop to the back of the pack.
He just throws what I call a "knockout punch".

[2Hot4TV]

Originally Posted by oracle80

2Hot, I'm not quite sure about his action. But i will say this, that horse is running completely within his own authority. Bejarano said in the Bashford that the horse himself dove to the inside and all he did was hang on and try to get through the hole.
Gomez never asked the horse to start running when he did and he took off like a jet.
Part of his appeal to me is that while he is a headstrong horse that does exactly what he wants to do exactly when he decides to do it, is that he has some personality and loves what he is doing out there. he appears to enjoy racing quite a lot. Its the rare horse who at an early age understands what his objective is out there.
He honestly seems to enjoy what he is doing. I can't find a recent 2yo to compare him too. I honestly think hes no plodder, and I think he will be better going longer when he can stalk moreso than drop to the back of the pack.
He just throws what I call a "knockout punch".

Don't get me wrong I like the horse and bet him yesterday. What I didn't like is how he was not intersted in the early going and the rider said he had to really get after him to get him to go. Now when he made up his mind to run it was all over. His action will develope as he matures, but it is similar to Barbaro's

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I figured you a man who would admit when you were wrong, but I was obviously wrong. Excuses, excuses. Scat Daddy ran a very good race, mixing it up, but he was no match. The Barbaro comment is about as bad as I have read from someone on here. No need for that. See the thing about putting yourself out there ALL of the time is, you are going to get called when you're wrong. Especially when you spend so much time telling us all about what you do, and who you are. You have been saying all along when Scat and CQ meet who would win. Well you were wrong. The correct thing to do is admit it.

I admitted I was wrong...the part you missed is that I said that Scat will beat CQ in the BC Juvenile....I even admitted that CQ would probably have the upper hand on Scat in teh Champagne next out...Can you read?

Another thing, yes - I have the balls to put myself out there on many occasions because I am that comfortabel ad confident in my abillity to evalute this industry....You also noticed that I use my own name ad don't hide behind a phony screen name and sit back bashing people while never revealing my true identity, because I'm not a coward...this world has too many of them - and frankly, this industry REALLY has a lot of weazles....

So, do you want people posting on here that are "Yes" people giving out post-race analysis and Captain Obvious repsponses?...Or do uyou want soemnody posting bold and predictive opinions ad poeple who aren't afraid to put their names behind thsoe predictions?...Ask that to yourself, DaHoss - which I guarantee is not the name your mother gave you....

Sure, I'll take my licks when I'm wrong, and believe me, racetrackers NEVER not let you know when you're wrong (like you did) - but the funnier thing is that they also never acknwoledge when you are right either - which is fine by me.....Remember, I believe I've called alot more things right o this thread than wrong...

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Where exactly did you say that, because I'm pretty sure I can read, and I haven't seen it. I see you have said you think Scat will win the BC, but at no point have I seen, that you were wrong today. Not that it matters, but again, to when you make bold predictions, and thump your chest when they are right. Prepare to get some flack when wrong. You were wrong in this case, and instead of admitting you make an excuse, and another prediction.

Read my edited post above yours, DaHoss...BTW, is your last name Pital, as in DaHoss Pital

[Nostradamus]

Who cares who won? They were an entry. If you bet either you won. The exacta was free money. I liked the horse who finished third but still had the exacta. Right now that is my only winning ticket all day. Thank God for Belmont. Saratoga is impossible.

[SentToStud]

Even tho I liked CQ lots coming into this and even though I still think he's the best 2 yo on the east coast, it's tough to get overly excited about any winner of a five horse race. Very small fields always make me downgrade performances. Hopefully the Champagne will have a larger field.

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

when you are right, people will give you kudos, if you show the ability to be humble when you are wrong. You have not.

this is bluntly false...

A) racetrackers kick you when you are wrong and run the other way when you are right...you need to first learn that about the game...

B) I acknowledge Circular Quay's perofromance as a good one adn one that couldn't be taken away from him....the length of the story that is sooooo long for you that you hate to read clearly give precise and detailed analysis on why i thought Circular Quay beat Scat Daddy this time - and I even mention that I thought that CQ may beat him again in the Champagne...but I like SD going long in the BC Juvy...that is why I write long pieces - to fully explain ad give analysis on my point of view to make my points clear...I get PM-ed all the time by people who enjoy my long readings...If you don't like the length of them I apologize but I won't shorten them becaues others like the detail of my thoughts...