12/31: Aqueduct ($17k Mandatory Pay C/O)

[Kasept]

Come into New Year's Eve needing proverbial bottom of the ninth heroics to level out what has been a sub-par annum for my bankroll. After getting behind at least $8k during the first half of the year, a strong Saratoga brought me back to solid footing, though still slightly down. Since Spa, an absence of consistent multi-race hits I count on to stay ahead has steadily worn a whole in the pocket. With one day to balance the ledger, I find myself down $6k.

A mandatory pay P6 carryover at Aqueduct could be the answer, and having flirted with 6-7 near-misses in sextets the last 2 months, it would be the ultimate 'walk-off' to catch this one. Wednesday's post-break Aqueduct Pick Six C/O play was the latest close call, having had all the winners listed in the tabs, but managing just 4 on any one ticket. $21.20 Nobody Like Mike and a $360 worth of P3's including him made the day more than OK, but the big prizes ($800 Late P4; $32k P6) proved elusive, and was typical of the kind of afternoon's I've experienced a little too often this year.

Hope you've done OK riding with me in 2010. As the year ends, it feels to me that it's been a period of time where I generally handicapped better than I wagered. There have been plenty of highs along the way -- Saratoga season and 40-1 Champagne d'Oro in the Acorn come to mind -- but it's not unusual or unproductive to think there is more work to be done and the approach can be improved. It's just a handful of results that make or break your balance sheet in any year, and I think about Evening Jewel's photo loss in the Kentucky Oaks at 14-1 as the perfect example. If you took chances and lost with some horses at big prices that were agonizingly beat, you still likely made the 'right' plays. You will be rewarded long term if your opinion was sound.

Warm wishes for a wonderful new year of health and happiness to ATR listeners, Derby Trailers, horseplayers, horsemen and everyone involved in our favorite game. Let's all work to make 2011 a great year...

Steve


AQUEDUCT


PRE-SCRATCHES


4th: CLM/N1Y, F&M-3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Iberian Gate 7-5 WON ($2.90)
Best Value: #8 Stratton's Girl 8-1 7th
Next Best: #4 Judicial Leader 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #5 Gattinara 3-1 9th


5th: OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Masala 5-2 WON ($7.10)
Best Value: #3 Marilyn's Guy 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 No Shenanigans 2-1 4th
Trifecta Add: #4 Nacho Friend 8-1 5th


6th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 SCR
Best Value: #7 Illgiveyouwattever 15-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Voyager 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #5 Katy's Office Girl 2-1 WON ($4.40)


7th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m-70y (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Whateverittakes 2-1 WON ($3.60)
Best Value: #1 Mr. Hooker 10-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Gold Close to Home 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #8 Game Token 8-1 8th


8th: 32nd Alex M. Robb-NY, 3+, 8.5f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Ichabad Crane 2-1 WON ($4.90)
Next Best: #6 Manteca 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #8 Giant Moon 6-1 4th
Super Add: #2 Mine Over Matter 4-1 3rd


9th: CLM/N1Y, 3+, 1m-70y (Super)

Exceedingly difficult way to end the sequence, and the year. Race hinges on whether RudyRod's 8-5 Gentle Edwin is still a horse as he drops precipitously. After that, there are no auto-tosses..

Best Value: #7 Stopbluffing 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 French Transition 6-1 7th
Exotics Use: #6 Gentle Edwin 8-5 WON ($3.60)
Super Add: #5 Hurricane Heat 8-1 9th


<$200 P6 Play:

4: 2-8
5: 1-2-3
6: 2-7
7: 6
8: 4-6
9: 4-5-6-7

2x3x2x1x2x4 = 96 x $2 = $192 $2 P6 (5 of 6) Pays $6.60 x 2 = $13.20


<$75 P4 Play:

6: 2/SCR-4-7
7: 1-6
8: 4-6-8
9: 4-5-6-7

2x2x3x4 = $48


Good luck!
Steve

[bahughes]

good luck steve hopefully 2011 will be your year

[Gate Dancer]

Can't say it enough Steve............appreciate all the work on the radio and the website. Your bottom line is not the true measure of your success. Great Stuff.

BOL today and for 2011 !!!!!!!!

[lazytom]

steve - if anyone can knock one out in the bottom of the ninth -it would be you - go get um - happy new year and thanks for all you do -

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Rare Bog

Curious... what percentage of the PK4 and PK6 bets that you post do you actually play? Is it annoying when you don't play one and it hits? I mean that miss, as you pointed out, could make the difference between being up or down for the year.

Play the majority of the P4's and perhaps two-thirds of P6's as posted. Sometimes play the P6's for less than initial ticket. Have certainly missed when not playing, and it's an annoyance. But also play on cards I haven't reviewed in print and have made scores on casual adjustments betting 'in card' when a P6 goes bust early, etc.

[Kasept]

AQU SCR/CHG's: http://www.equibase.com/premium/changes/AQU-changes.asp

[Esumner66]

Thanks for all of your work Steve, it has certainly helped me this year.

Just curious, no love for Lloyd Dobler today or are you just trying to keep the odds up there? Good luck today!

Happy New Year,

Chuck

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by bahughes

good luck steve hopefully 2011 will be your year

Originally Posted by Gate Dancer

Can't say it enough Steve............appreciate all the work on the radio and the website. Your bottom line is not the true measure of your success. Great Stuff. BOL today and for 2011 !!!!!!!!

Originally Posted by lazytom

steve - if anyone can knock one out in the bottom of the ninth -it would be you - go get um - happy new year and thanks for all you do -

ba, DG, tom:

Thanks for the kind words and well wishes! Happy New Year! Let's make '11 a great year..

Originally Posted by fpsoxfan

Steve...nice end of the year wrap up. I always enjoy looking over your picks and reading your mini articles. Hope you end the year with a big day! Good luck!

Originally Posted by Esumner66

Thanks for all of your work Steve, it has certainly helped me this year.

Just curious, no love for Lloyd Dobler today or are you just trying to keep the odds up there? Good luck today!

Happy New Year, Chuck

Guys,

Thanks! Always hope readers/listeners find my view useful in interpreting races and building their own plays.

Was of course amused to conso today's chalk parade to end the year!

Best for the New Year!

[pucknut]

Steve
Have a healthy and joyous 2011.
Thanks for all you do.
Also this is a great haven for horseplayers I sometimes feel we are anachronists and dwindling in number
this helps restore faith in a sport that is too often overlooked

[richard]

Yes Steve, thanks for keeping the light lit.

[fpsoxfan]

Steve...nice end of the year wrap up. I always enjoy looking over your picks and reading your mini articles. Hope you end the year with a big day! Good luck!