Gulfstream Wednesday....

RockHardTen1985 · #1 02-08-2011, 02:05 PM

Race 4, Lets discuss it.

Im having a hard time with it. Appears to be a good amount of speed, and Todds horse looks OK. The problem is that horse beat nothings last time and pulled a dream trip doing it. Not to mention he will be really overbet because of connections, pedigree Etc. I dont trust Motions horse, but maybe that one is OK sprinting?? I am starting to lean towards the 1 entry.

knickslions2 · #2 02-08-2011, 02:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Race 4, Lets discuss it.

Im having a hard time with it. Appears to be a good amount of speed, and Todds horse looks OK. The problem is that horse beat nothings last time and pulled a dream trip doing it. Not to mention he will be really overbet because of connections, pedigree Etc. I dont trust Motions horse, but maybe that one is OK sprinting?? I am starting to lean towards the 1 entry.

I kind of like the 7 Senor Dehere. I need to take a better look at it tonight when I have some time. I'll look at the 1.

Port Conway Lane · #3 02-08-2011, 02:49 PM

I lean to the 5 and 7, the lighter raced,surface proven runners not exiting a maiden race.

RockHardTen1985 · #4 02-08-2011, 02:59 PM

The 7 Toga race crushes this field, can he get back to that though? He really beat no one. The second place finisher is OK, but he has never been back on turf. I guess you can toss the Keeneland effort and the turf route, and say he is a grass sprinter. I dont know??? Avenging Spirit was even money that day, at the time it was his third loss as the chalk, even when he was not the favorite he is always well bet. He seemed to have a lot of potential early on, but he has really turned into not much. This is the horse I want to like, but I can see Todd being 8-5 and this horse being 5-2 and everyone else being an overlay.

paulo537 · #5 02-08-2011, 03:20 PM

First, it's a pretty poor betting race (7 betting #s) unless you have a pretty strong lean on a non-fave.

I don't see much speed at all. Red Jag isn't likely to outjump all of these and even if he does, he's got the 5, as I see it, and perhaps also the 2, right on top of him.

The 1A, 4, 6 and 7 aren't going anywhere early, imo. I suppose the 7 could send, but why would they? Who knows about the 2. He's pretty unlikely to last in any case.

I'd best guess that after 1/4 mile, Fiscal Stimulus leads or control-presses outside the 1 a/o 2, with the 3 --assuming he breaks clean-- getting a pretty good trip.

To me, the race chalks out 3 wide, which makes it a lousy betting race. If somehow the 1 and 2 take far more action than I expect, maybe Fiscal Stimulus gets lost on the board a bit and goes off 6-7/1 , I'd bet him to win or play 5/37.

RockHardTen1985 · #6 02-08-2011, 03:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by paulo537

First, it's a pretty poor betting race (7 betting #s) unless you have a pretty strong lean on a non-fave.

I don't see much speed at all. Red Jag isn't likely to outjump all of these and even if he does, he's got the 5, as I see it, and perhaps also the 2, right on top of him.

The 1A, 4, 6 and 7 aren't going anywhere early, imo. I suppose the 7 could send, but why would they? Who knows about the 2. He's pretty unlikely to last in any case.

I'd best guess that after 1/4 mile, Fiscal Stimulus leads or control-presses outside the 1 a/o 2, with the 3 --assuming he breaks clean-- getting a pretty good trip.

To me, the race chalks out 3 wide, which makes it a lousy betting race. If somehow the 1 and 2 take far more action than I expect, maybe Fiscal Stimulus gets lost on the board a bit and goes off 6-7/1 , I'd bet him to win or play 5/37.

The 6 is not running early? Take a better look.

ateamstupid · #7 02-08-2011, 04:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by paulo537

First, it's a pretty poor betting race (7 betting #s) unless you have a pretty strong lean on a non-fave.

I don't see much speed at all. Red Jag isn't likely to outjump all of these and even if he does, he's got the 5, as I see it, and perhaps also the 2, right on top of him.

The 1A, 4, 6 and 7 aren't going anywhere early, imo. I suppose the 7 could send, but why would they? Who knows about the 2. He's pretty unlikely to last in any case.

I'd best guess that after 1/4 mile, Fiscal Stimulus leads or control-presses outside the 1 a/o 2, with the 3 --assuming he breaks clean-- getting a pretty good trip.

To me, the race chalks out 3 wide, which makes it a lousy betting race. If somehow the 1 and 2 take far more action than I expect, maybe Fiscal Stimulus gets lost on the board a bit and goes off 6-7/1 , I'd bet him to win or play 5/37.

I see the race pretty much the exact same way. It's a pass for me.

RockHardTen1985 · #8 02-08-2011, 06:49 PM

Since the 4th sucks.

I have no clue who to like. Anyone have any opinion? Clement has a Giants Causeway half to Medaglia D'Oro. That one has every right to be a runner, and Clement can fire first out. Likely underlay though. If anyone has a good reasson to like anything in this spot let me know. Its been 40min already and nothing is jumping out. Hows this for original Mott and Clement.

MaTH716 · #9 02-08-2011, 07:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Since the 4th sucks.

I have no clue who to like. Anyone have any opinion? Clement has a Giants Causeway half to Medaglia D'Oro. That one has every right to be a runner, and Clement can fire first out. Likely underlay though. If anyone has a good reasson to like anything in this spot let me know. Its been 40min already and nothing is jumping out. Hows this for original Mott and Clement.

I think the 4th is more interesting then the 6th. The 6th seems like it could be a crapshoot. For some reason I think that the Toner horse could hit the board at a price.

RockHardTen1985 · #10 02-08-2011, 07:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MaTH716

I think the 4th is more interesting then the 6th. The 6th seems like it could be a crapshoot. For some reason I think that the Toner horse could hit the board at a price.

Anything clever in the 4th? I think the 1 can win. The 1 is speed of speed, and the 1a could run late. Im not talking at 4-1 though. Im hoping 8-1.

knickslions2 · #11 02-08-2011, 07:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Anything clever in the 4th? I think the 1 can win. The 1 is speed of speed, and the 1a could run late. Im not talking at 4-1 though. Im hoping 8-1.

1 should get out and be the one they have to catch. Not sure he will hold on. Still like the 7 but can't see it more then 5-2. Maybe Pletcher will get really over bet and 7 sneak up to 7-2.

RockHardTen1985 · #12 02-08-2011, 08:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by knickslions2

1 should get out and be the one they have to catch. Not sure he will hold on. Still like the 7 but can't see it more then 5-2. Maybe Pletcher will get really over bet and 7 sneak up to 7-2.

As far as the betting goes I think the 1 will be around 6-5, the 7 anywhere from 5-2 to maybe 7-2 and then everyone else.

MaTH716 · #13 02-08-2011, 08:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Anything clever in the 4th? I think the 1 can win. The 1 is speed of speed, and the 1a could run late. Im not talking at 4-1 though. Im hoping 8-1.

Seems like there is a lot of speed in the race, but I still find the Chad Brown intriguing. The Motion horse took back after the start in his debut and came from 8 back to pick up the pieces and break his maiden in Saratoga. His next two starts were on the poly and then in a route, then he went to the bench. I'm thinking he can figure as well if Motion has him ready (not sure of the price). Obviously the Pletcher horse makes alot of sense too.

Like I said, I think it's a much more interesting race than the 6th.

RockHardTen1985 · #14 02-08-2011, 08:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MaTH716

Seems like there is a lot of speed in the race, but I still find the Chad Brown intriguing. The Motion horse took back after the start in his debut and came from 8 back to pick up the pieces and break his maiden in Saratoga. His next two starts were on the poly and then in a route, then he went to the bench. I'm thinking he can figure as well if Motion has him ready (not sure of the price). Obviously the Pletcher horse makes alot of sense too.

Like I said, I think it's a much more interesting race than the 6th.

Its funny how people can see a 7 horse race so different.

RockHardTen1985 · #15 02-08-2011, 08:07 PM

Im thinking stongly about all. 1/all/3.
If I catch the 1 in the first leg, Im looking strong.

Port Conway Lane · #16 02-08-2011, 08:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Im thinking stongly about all. 1/all/3.
If I catch the 1 in the first leg, Im looking strong.

The 3 in the sixth has as good a chance as any but I don't think that makes you or anyone else who connects in the first leg "strong" in a crapshoot race.

I leaned away from the 3 because the dam was a pure sprinter on the dirt who never attempted a dirt route. It would help if the sibling summary would separate the sprint/route record on turf so I don't have to make assumptions.

I like the 1 or 2 in the 6th and if I bet it I would look at DD's leading in and out of that race.

RockHardTen1985 · #17 02-08-2011, 08:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

The 3 in the sixth has as good a chance as any but I don't think that makes you or anyone else who connects in the first leg "strong" in a crapshoot race.

I leaned away from the 3 because the dam was a pure sprinter on the dirt who never attempted a dirt route. It would help if the sibling summary would separate the sprint/route record on turf so I don't have to make assumptions.

I like the 1 or 2 in the 6th and if I bet it I would look at DD's leading in and out of that race.

Im messing up bad in this thread. Im leaning heavily towards the 2 in the 6th. The Giants Causeway. Im not crazy about the 3, but thats the type of horse I would use in a wide open race.