Circular Quay

[miraja2]

Okay….I said last week that I was done posting on here because I simply did not have time anymore (which is true). But I have to make a special exception for this race. After his debut, Oracle and I (along with a couple other people) were saying that this horse was going to be a big time force in the 2YO division. People jumped all over us!
“It is too early!” some said.
“He is too slow” shouted others.
A few talked about he was not even one of the top 2YOs in his own barn! Now I don’t want to gloat too much over what happened today, but I would like to ask those people if they still think it is “too early” or if they think he is “too slow?”
And just remember that this guy is a Thunder Gulch, so when they stretch out to races 8f and beyond later in the year, he should only get better.
What a horse.

[Scav]

The fact that he breaks like crap also helps him becuase he doesn't get caught in nutty fractions

How this exacta paid $9.30 is BEYOND me

[zippyneedsawin]

CQ is the MAN! Yes he did benefit from that insane speed duel, but what a closing kick! The races only get LONGER from here too which helps him.

[Revolution]

he is definitely the best 2yr old since afleet alex. i like him more as they stretch out. he is not a freak though, just a precocious 2yr old. his lack of tactical speed is something they will have to work on. he will not always have small fields and fractions like that to run at. he is impressive though.

[pick4]

Horse is great and two year old usually don't make moves like that. Although Wild Fit is one that comes to mind. I think you have to consider how his out of the clouds running style will play out around two turns. Circular Quay looks like a real good one but I think the rest of field had quality horses and shouldn't be counted out going forward. It will be interesting to see these horses as the mature.

[Thunder Gulch]

That's my boy!!

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Scav

The fact that he breaks like crap also helps him becuase he doesn't get caught in nutty fractions

How this exacta paid $9.30 is BEYOND me

Have you ever seen anything more ridiculous than the odds they sent the entry off at? The entry should have easily been 1/5. I was 99% sure CQ would win, and I thought there was about a 1% Scat Daddy would win. When I turned on TVG 4 minutes to post and saw that the odds were 6/5, I nearly crapped my pants. What in the world were people looking at?

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Have you ever seen anything more ridiculous than the odds they sent the entry off at? The entry should have easily been 1/5. I was 99% sure CQ would win, and I thought there was about a 1% Scat Daddy would win. When I turned on TVG 4 minutes to post and saw that the odds were 6/5, I nearly crapped my pants. What in the world were people looking at?

I was thinking the exact same thing and was relieved when they dropped to 4/5 because I was stuck at home and would've crushed them at 6/5.

Anyway, I'd love to hear from all those "blah blah blah, 84 Beyer, blah blah blah" people now.

Speed figures are great, but if you actually WATCHED this horse's first two races, you could tell he was something special. Tremendous run.

Now he'll get a big Beyer and the bandwagon will come charging.

[ArlJim78]

I am waiting patiently for all the experts and analysts to explain what Circular Quay did today. There are several on here that have been quite opinionated with regard to how unimpressive he is. The initial reviews are in, he got yet another dream trip benefiting by the others knocking themselves out. He won’t be able to close like that as the races get longer.

After his first win we were told it’s too early, the race was meaningless.

After his next win we were told the field was weak and that the time was slow and that he benefited from an easy trip. Don’t worry, the better 2yo’s are waiting at the Spa and will rule the day we were advised.

Today the distance was longer and he faced the best so far. And even with his “sub par” action he absolutely crushed the field. A field which included his stablemate Scat Daddy, the horse with the beautiful long stride that the experts have already anointed as the best 2YO. Based on what, I’m not sure. But that’s what we have the experts for, to illuminate the path to truth for us.

Picking which 2YO moves forward to win the BCJ or which one will have success in the spring or the derby is a very dicey thing. No one knows how this thing plays out going forward. And I am not so naïve as to think the CQ will never meet his challenge and will just cruise to the Derby.

But I’m going to say what I have said after each of Circular Quay’s races. He does things, accelerates, changes course, closes well, that are often not things a 2yo does well. Each of his races has left me dazzled. He does something else that I like to see; he simply wins each race and in my opinion looks much the best doing it.

[Danzig]

very nicely put arljim.

and dahoss, there are ALWAYS naysayers...always.

[lemoncrush]

I fell for this horse after re-watching his debut race a few times, and he just keeps on impressing me. It's just too bad that he and Scat Daddy were coupled yesterday, instead of separate entries.
I was worried when Bejarano got hurt that the new jock might screw this horse up, but when Gomez jumped on, I was relieved.
I'm just excited to see a horse that reminds me (and so many others) of Afleet Alex with his push-button speed and modest pedigree.

If someone other than Prime Ruler wins the Del Mar Futurity, CQ will be your early odds-on favorite for the 2007 Kentucy Derby futures when they come out next month (for better or worse).

[jpops757]

Rupert, when you evaluate a sale . Do you make a list of the top ones and rate it best to worst or is it a process of puttig a dollar value on a hip and advise to buy as long as the hip is under your evaluation? Your evaluations are very astute and would love to here more when posible. Im just an old retired firefigher but i envy someone like you that can see more that time and distance. Keep the good post comming.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by jpops757

Rupert, when you evaluate a sale . Do you make a list of the top ones and rate it best to worst or is it a process of puttig a dollar value on a hip and advise to buy as long as the hip is under your evaluation? Your evaluations are very astute and would love to here more when posible. Im just an old retired firefigher but i envy someone like you that can see more that time and distance. Keep the good post comming.

I don't really make a list of best to worst. I just make a list of the horses I like. At the great sales like FT Feb, Bar Mar, Ocala Feb and March, somewhere around 10-15% of the horses will make my list. At a lesser sale like Ocala April, only about 5% will make my list.

My trainer makes his own list and then we compare our lists. If I have 30 horses on my list and he has about 30 on his list, I would expect that about 20 of them will match. We usually like a lot of the same horses. If we agree on 20 of them, then he will go over these 20 in person with a fine-tooth comb. He will actually kneel down like a catcher and feel their tendons. You would think that most trainers would do this but I hardly see any trainers do this at the sales. anyway, after he's done examing them, the list is usually cut by half and maybe even more for either soundness issues or poor conformation. Let's say our final list is down to 9 horses. At that point, we call our vet and have him go over the horses with a fine-tooth comb. he will scope each horse and go over the x-rays of each horse. The vet will often times not like the x-rays or he may not like the way the horse scopes. After he's done, our list will probably be down to 4 or 5 horses. At that point, we decide how high we want to go on each horse. We may end up buying one or two horses or we may end up getting outbid for every horse. I think Point Ashley was the only horse we ended up bidding on at the Keeneland Sale. We stopped at about $400,000 and she ended up selling for about $725,000.

We only bid on one horse at the Barrett's May Sale. He was a Tribal Rule gelding so we weren't going to go too high. We went up to $100,00 and he sold for $110,000. After watching his training video a few more times the next day, I called my trainer and told him that we made a mistake and that we should have gone higher. Sure enough, the horse won easily when he made his debut at Del Mar. His name is Indian Ashton. He was a real bargain for $110,000.

[paisjpq]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I don't really make a list of best to worst. I just make a list of the horses I like. At the great sales like FT Feb, Bar Mar, Ocala Feb and March, somewhere around 10-15% of the horses will make my list. At a lesser sale like Ocala April, only about 5% will make my list.

My trainer makes his own list and then we compare our lists. If I have 30 horses on my list and he has about 30 on his list, I would expect that about 20 of them will match. We usually like a lot of the same horses. If we agree on 20 of them, then he will go over these 20 in person with a fine-tooth comb. He will actually kneel down like a catcher and feel their tendons. You would think that most trainers would do this but I hardly see any trainers do this at the sales. anyway, after he's done examing them, the list is usually cut by half and maybe even more for either soundness issues or poor conformation. Let's say our final list is down to 9 horses. At that point, we call our vet and have him go over the horses with a fine-tooth comb. he will scope each horse and go over the x-rays of each horse. The vet will often times not like the x-rays or he may not like the way the horse scopes. After he's done, our list will probably be down to 4 or 5 horses. At that point, we decide how high we want to go on each horse. We may end up buying one or two horses or we may end up getting outbid for every horse. I think Point Ashley was the only horse we ended up bidding on at the Keeneland Sale. We stopped at about $400,000 and she ended up selling for about $725,000.

We only bid on one horse at the Barrett's May Sale. He was a Tribal Rule gelding so we weren't going to go too high. We went up to $100,00 and he sold for $110,000. After watching his training video a few more times the next day, I called my trainer and told him that we made a mistake and that we should have gone higher. Sure enough, the horse won easily when he made his debut at Del Mar. His name is Indian Ashton. He was a real bargain for $110,000.

rupert..you strictly a 2YO guy or do you shop yearlings as well? Just curious.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by paisjpq

rupert..you strictly a 2YO guy or do you shop yearlings as well? Just curious.

We buy some yearlings but I am not involved in picking the yearlings. I have no expertise in picking yearlings

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by lemoncrush

I fell for this horse after re-watching his debut race a few times, and he just keeps on impressing me. It's just too bad that he and Scat Daddy were coupled yesterday, instead of separate entries.
I was worried when Bejarano got hurt that the new jock might screw this horse up, but when Gomez jumped on, I was relieved.
I'm just excited to see a horse that reminds me (and so many others) of Afleet Alex with his push-button speed and modest pedigree.

If someone other than Prime Ruler wins the Del Mar Futurity, CQ will be your early odds-on favorite for the 2007 Kentucy Derby futures when they come out next month (for better or worse).

Prime Ruler is a very good horse. I have been watching this one since the Barretts May sale because his workout was so good. I was very happy with the way he broke his maiden. I am inexperienced in this sort of thing, but my skills may just be pretty good. Prime Ruler is one of the reasons that I said that Orientate was going to become a major sire earlier in the year. I still stand by this statement.

IMO, Orientate's best workout horse from the Barretts sales has yet to start. In fact, this one is my second favorite workout horse that I have seen besides the Red Bullet colt (although I haven't nearly seen them all). I expect that this Orientate will become a stakes horse if he makes it to the track. I am very confident in him. His gallop is a thing of real beauty.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

Prime Ruler is a very good horse. I have been watching this one since the Barretts May sale because his workout was so good. I was very happy with the way he broke his maiden. I am inexperienced in this sort of thing, but my skills may just be pretty good. Prime Ruler is one of the reasons that I said that Orientate was going to become a major sire earlier in the year. I still stand by this statement.

IMO, Orientate's best workout horse from the Barretts sales has yet to start. In fact, this one is my second favorite workout horse that I have seen besides the Red Bullet colt (although I haven't nearly seen them all). I expect that this Orientate will become a stakes horse if he makes it to the track. I am very confident in him. His gallop is a thing of real beauty.

Albertrani has an Orientate that should win easily next time. I don't remember the horse's name but she ran 3rd in her debut and lost by less than a length going 7 furlongs at Saratoga. It's very tough to win going 7 furlongs first-time out. She was just a little short. I wish she would have won. I had a big bet on her and she was about 12-1. She was from the Barrett's sale too. She was Hip #64. She worked :10 1/5 but she could have gone even faster. She didn't start running her hardest until the jock hit her half-way through the work. You can actually see her accelerate after she gets hit in the middle of the work. If she would have been all out from the start, she would have gone :9 4/5 or :10.

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

Albertrani has an Orientate that should win easily next time. I don't remember the horse's name but she ran 3rd in her debut and lost by less than a length going 7 furlongs at Saratoga. It's very tough to win going 7 furlongs first-time out. She was just a little short. I wish she would have won. I had a big bet on her and she was about 12-1. She was from the Barrett's sale too. She was Hip #64. She worked :10 1/5 but she could have gone even faster. She didn't start running her hardest until the jock hit her half-way through the work. You can actually see her accelerate after she gets hit in the middle of the work. If she would have been all out from the start, she would have gone :9 4/5 or :10.

I know the horse you mean and I agree. That one should win next out easily. Looked green and should gallop at Belmont.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by oracle80

I know the horse you mean and I agree. That one should win next out easily. Looked green and should gallop at Belmont.

I can't figure out why he ran her 7 furlongs first-time out. She has a lot of speed. That's not the kind of horse that you would normally run that disatnce. I don't know why he didn't run her 5 1/2 furlongs.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

Albertrani has an Orientate that should win easily next time. I don't remember the horse's name but she ran 3rd in her debut and lost by less than a length going 7 furlongs at Saratoga. It's very tough to win going 7 furlongs first-time out. She was just a little short. I wish she would have won. I had a big bet on her and she was about 12-1. She was from the Barrett's sale too. She was Hip #64. She worked :10 1/5 but she could have gone even faster. She didn't start running her hardest until the jock hit her half-way through the work. You can actually see her accelerate after she gets hit in the middle of the work. If she would have been all out from the start, she would have gone :9 4/5 or :10.

Thanks for the heads up on her Rupert. I didn't know where she was and she was one of the one's on my list along with a few from Keeneland and Calder. That was a very tough spot to put her in first time out. If I had race horses, I would want mine starting at 5 1/2 if at all possible. I also liked Hip #165 (Orientate) from that same Barretts sale that she was in. I liked Hip #64 a lot better than Hip #67 even though Hip #67 went faster than her. And of course, I liked Hip #103 from the May sale.

At Keeneland, my favorite of the Orientate's was Hip #12. He was a more powerful and longer strided horse than the fillies by Orientate. I didn't like Hip #153 at all, but Hip #9 (although she switched leads late) and Hip #169 could do something on the track.

At the Fasig-Tipton Calder Training Sale, I liked Hip #147 and Hip #63 the best of the Orientates. I would have liked hip #113, although he looked very uncomfortable on his front end, and had a high head carriage. HIP #295 was okay, but I really don't expect much from that one. I didn't like HIP #122, #151, or #207.

Still, as good as some of these other Orientate's workouts were and as pretty as some of them gallop, they don't compare to HIP #8 at the March Barretts sale. I could be wrong, but it is my opinion. I am very high on that horse .