3/16: Aqueduct (6th-9th)

[Kasept]

Flirted briefly with opportunities in another Santa Anita carryover Sunday after Friday's agonizing adventure, but $32 Preamble dusted any hopes of the conso. However, the nightcap proved invaluable as a handicapping lesson and bailout chance, with an overlaid winner in Tequila Blues (6-1 ML) coming through at 11-1. In this $20k Maiden Claimer going five-eigths, there looked to be 4 low-priced options that were running Beyers in the 60's in recent races at the level, and none really had any great appeal. But the Craig Lewis trainee (Tequila Blues) was a fresh face that had been working very well for his return from 8 months away, including a pair of recent 6f spins. He had shown good speed in 2 of his 3 three starts before the time off, and the fact that Pat Valenzuela was tabbed for the comeback let you know what approach Lewis wanted to take from the standpoint of strategy.

I made Tequila Blue the 'Best Value' second choice at the 6-1 ML number, but when the public ignored him and he floated to $10.80 by post time, he became an even more enticing win bet and exotics key opportunity. Sure enough, PVal rode Tequila Blues from the outset, chasing and corraling early leader Warrens Extrabonus after a quarter, taking command with an eighth to run, and holding off the late runners. I had made a very typical play for me in this situation: $20 win ($20), $2 exacta backwheel with the 4 other principals I identified ($8), and a $1 tri key with the same 4 ($12). A total of $40 wagered. The win mutuel was $23.60 ($236.00) and the tri was $161.70 for just under $400 returned. So despite missing the P4 and P6 conso, the day and weekend ended well having brought back everything invested in the day's biggest punts.

On ATR, we've been promising to talk more about bankroll application, and while I am not the ideal candidate to offer this kind of tutorial, here's a quick review of how I approached this particular opportunity, and how my thinking goes when betting a well-priced horse I've identified as an overlay. You want to make sure that if the horse you like wins at what you consider a square price, you adequately reward yourself, so 50% of the total investment goes toward the win. If your prime play horse runs well enough but falls short, the exacta backwheel (20% of total wagered) with the more obvious candidates invariably covers your plays, and regularly provides a decent profit.

The trifecta key (30% in this case) is something of a 'fence-swinging' luxury play. The $12 (1x4x3) invested in the triple brought back $161.70 in this race, but note that the same $12 would have returned $141.60 as an additional 6 win hits (6 x $23.60 = $141.60). The difference between the choices, and why the play 'swings for the fences', is that the $12 in win bets has a fixed maximum return versus the tri key which has the potential to bring back whatever the maximum might be in the blind pool with the horses you use. In this case, the horses used were the top four choices at $1.70, $2.80, $3.30 and $9.50. Nisus ($3.30) and The Full Lavino (post time favorite at $1.70) ran second and third behind Tequila Blues for the $161.70 payoff. But had $9.50 Guadalupe Lupe replaced the favorite in the triple, that $161.70 would likey double ($350 or so) and possibly triple or more ($500). If the $9.50-1 runner manages to run second behind the $10.80-1 winner, suddenly that tri careens into 4 figures.

Hope you did well Sunday. I intend to have Steve Davidowitz offers his insights on this interesting example when he joins me on ATR today at 2pm ET. Aqueduct late P4 is quirky and challenging today. Note some very good racing around the country today including the route ALW at PRX -- with Chuck Simon/Bob Gary Racing's Prospect Knight -- (PRX 8th-3:22pm ET), sprint ALW at Laurel (8th-3:53pm ET), turf sprint ALW at GP (8th-4:25pm ET) and ALW Double at HAW (5th/6th starting at 4:26 ET)...


AQUEDUCT


POST-SCRATCHES


NOTE: David Cohen will be off mounts..


6th: S/ALW, 4+. (Super)

Not so easy to seperate the top contenders here..

Most Likely: #4 Strategic Move 2-1 WON ($4.50)
Best Value: #1 Eltish Star 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Khan of Khans 7-2 2nd

$1 Exacta (4-3) Paid: $6.20
$1 Trifecta (4-3-1) Paid: $10.30


7th: NY-MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (P3. DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Dirt Track Demon 7-2 8th
Best Value: #7 Cella Muffler 10-1 5th
Next Best: #8 Freudian Dilemma 5-2 3rd
Super Add: #2 Hold That Memory 3-1 2nd


8th: OC/N2X, F&M-4+, 1m-70y (DD, Super)

DRF Race of the Day..

Most Likely: #1 Bwana Babe 2-1 WON ($5.20)
Best Value: #2 Dolce Pentimento 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Kittylicious 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #3 Spa City Princess 8-1 5th

$1 Exacta (1-2) Paid: $20.80
$1 Trifecta (1-2-5) Paid: $77.50


9th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (Super)

Most Likely: #5 Katie's Dance 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #1 Eur in the Mood 6-1 7th
Exotics Use: #6 Major Molly 2-1 4th
Super Add: #8 J C's Queen 5-1 2nd


<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-3-4-6
7: 2-3-7-8
8: 1
9: 1-5-6-8

4x4x1x4 = $64


Good luck!
Steve

[Kasept]

Carryover with any but the 5-6-8.. the 1 being the 'great chestnut hope'.

[Kasept]

That works! The 7.. Shady Road.

$16k C/O

[docicu3]

Originally Posted by Kasept

That works! The 7.. Shady Road.

$16k C/O

When does turf racing come back to NYC? The inner has seemed so chalky this winter the place has been barely playable....

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by docicu3

When does turf racing come back to NYC? The inner has seemed so chalky this winter the place has been barely playable....

The inner track meet has been typically uninspired overall this winter, but it was so chalky yesterday that the P6 went un-hit and the late P4 paid $1,352. While favorites, and usually very short priced favorites, have been prevalent, when you can beat them, you've been amply rewarded. The racing moves to the main track next week and grass will start as soon as possible. Last year, the first scheduled grass races were March 31, but came off. The first actual turf race run came on Wood Day, April 3.