4/3: Gulfstream 'Derby Day' (1st-12th)

[Kasept]

Built a nice bankroll cushion over the first two thirds of Saturday's Gulfstream 'Oaks Day' with some well-priced winners keying more than $500 in P3's. But Mayday Maria cost me the $500+ early P4 which would have been a super way to offset the chalk that paraded home over the back end of the day. $19.60 Close It Out and Purple Trillium (the debuting Perfect Sting 5yo) at $38.00 were the lynchpins to the things that went right on the day.

As forewarned when going against R Heat Lightening in the Oaks, it was one of those 'Pletcher at Gulfstream' days that are as annual as Daylight Savings Time, with the conditioner sending out five winners. He not only sent out a pentafecta of photo subjects, he swept the graded stakes for Mrs. Robsham with Awesome Maria and R Heat Lightening moving down the lane as if shot from a circus cannon. It was certainly rewarding for those that loyally back Pletcher runners, as the average price on the five was $5.90. That number was boosted greatly by Mayday Maria's $12.20.

You can't bet Pletcher and you can't beat him... at least at this time of year at this racetrack. And today's Florida Derby card has potential to be another demonstration of his barn's authority with 13 horses in 11 of the 12 races (the $25k plating opener is the exception). Travelin Man (3rd-Swale), Hammersmith (4th-MSW), Christmas for Liam (5th-ALW), Ibboyee (6th-Sir Shakleton), Ocean Seven (7th-ALW) and Colizeo (9th-Skip Away) are all legitimate "likely" type winners. If Commandered (Appleton) and/or Stay Thirsty (Florida Derby) win, they may as well build a seperate wing in the Hall of Fame for Pletcher.

Hope everyone did well Saturday and are ready for a big Sunday. In addition to the Gulfstream action, Santa Anita has a $112k carryover on a good card that is highlighted by one of the best sprint stakes you'll see anywhere in the Potrero Grande. Post time is 7:07pm ET, so don't miss it.


GULFSTREAM


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: CLM, 4+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

That's a mighty suspicious drop on favored Mighty Score..

Best Value: #6 Lucky James 8-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Mighty Score 3-1 8th
Exotics Use: #7 A Centurian 4-1 5th
Super Add: #8 Haps Alphabet Soup 10-1 6th


2nd: MSW, 3yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super0

Today's maiden affairs start with Tagg's Jack London with experience over a hatful of nice looking firsters. Zito's Avenue B, a Len Reggio homebred by Pulpit, is half Whywhywhy and Spellbinder; KMc unveils Golden Triumph, a $400k Darley buy by Bernardini out of Jim Spence's G3 winner Golden Sonata..

Most Likely: #7 Jack London 3-1 4th
Best Value: #9 Golden Triumph 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Avenue B 4-1 5th
Super Add: #2 Ice Cream Man 5-1 WON ($5.60)


3rd: 26th Swale (G2), 3yo, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

"Other" Pletcher here might be the key to getting some value in this uninteresting edition of the Swale. Funny how I haven't seen anyone criticize GP for this weak get-together. If the Bay Shore or Woody Stephens come up like this, you'll see the Internet light up with alarms of an example of how poor New York racing is..

Most Likely: #6 Travelin Man 4-5 WON ($2.80)
Best Value: #2 Razmataz 12-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Indiano 3-1 2nd


4th: MSW, 3yo, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

Maidens stretch to a mile here and those that have been out have edge on good looking group of firsters. As to pages, Bomber Boy (Bernardini) is a half to Summerly; Labonte (A.P. Indy) is half to one of my favorite racemares ever, Hollywood Story; Ninety Schillings out of the Whitmans' sharp sprinter Madame Pandit, is a half to the Ron McAnally-trained G1 winning turf mare Mea Domina; Hammersmith is out of MGSW Bella Bellucci and AE Fire With Fire (Distorted Humor) is half to Cosmonaut..

Best Value: #7 Ninety Schillings 6-1 7th
Next Best: #9 Hammersmith 4-1 9th
Exotics Use: #13 Fire With Fire 5-1 4th
Super Add: #5 Big Herman 10-1 3rd


5th: OC/N2X, 4+, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Christmas for Liam 3-1 WON ($4.00)
Next Best: #1 Hunters Bay 2-1 4th
Best Value: #7 Jaguar Paw 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #10 Avenging Spirit 10-1 2nd


<$50 P4 Play:

2: 7 (2-4-9)
3: 6
4: 7-9
5: 8

Main: 1x1x2x1 = 2 x $15 = $30
Backup: 3x1x3x1 = 9 x $2 = $18


6th: 2nd Sir Shackleton, 4+, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #4 Safe Trip 10-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Ibboyee 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Capt. Candyman Can 3-1 WON ($3.60)
Super Add: #9 Nathan's H Q 10-1 3rd


7th: ALW/N1X, 4+, 1m-Inner Turf (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Like Saturday's 9th, a deep and treacherous turf ALW. And as we did yesterday when employing a half dozen, 2-4-6-7-8-10 are the includes if you are playing multis through this event (P6, P3's, DD's)..

Best Value: #4 Devon Rock 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Hariolus 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Mobilizer 4-1 WON ($6.00)
Super Add: #6 Michael Rules 12-1 8th


8th: 60th Arthur A. Appleton (G3), 4+, 1,-Outer Turf (P5, P3, DD, Super)

As tough as ALW above. Appears to be enough pace pressure to keep Little Mike honest throughout. Will try to connect with prices keying off Cherokee Artist who looks like a grapefruit in this spot..

Best Value: #2 Cherokee Artist 8-1 6th
Next Best: #7 Successful Mission 5-1 5th
Exotics Use: #8 Asphalt 10-1 3rd
Super Add: #6 Riviera Cocktail 6-1 2nd


9th: 24th Skip Away (G3), 4+, 9.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Colizeo 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #3 Our Dark Knight 6-1 9th
Exotics Use: #10 S. S. Stone 8-1 WON ($12.00)
Super Add: #8 Jardim 10-1 6th


10th: 60th Florida Derby (G1), 3yo, 9f (P3, DD, Super)

Important but quirky edition of this meet highlight with free-running Flashpoint certain to take them a long way. The key is how far he wants to go, and it is not outlandish to wonder if he can get to the line if unchallenged. The three inside horses -- Soldat, To Honor and Serve and Arch Traveler -- are the focus in this $1,000,000 event, as they figure to sit comfortable trips with the Dutrow grey in their sights. Dialed In is an underlaid 2-1 second choice, and you won't make any money here at all if the top candidates dominate the pay slots. I'll approach the race trying to get 20-1 Arch Traveler into a key position, with the race reminding me of Centennial's eventful 2006 Fountain of Youth visit when Corinthian was DQ'd for mauling First Samurai..

Best Value: #3 Arch Traveler 20-1 6th
Next Best: #1 Soldat 9-5 5th
Exotics Use: #2 To Honor and Serve 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #8 Flashpoint 6-1 4th


11th: OC/N3X, 4+, 9f-Outer Turf (DD, Super)

Hey look! It's ANOTHER horse out of Champion Perfect Sting.. #6 Perfect Bullet..

Best Value: #9 So Elite 12-1 8th
Next Best: #3 Mystic 6-1 7th
Exotics Use: #1 Hudson Steele 6-1 WON ($9.00)
Super Add: #4 Deal Making 10-1 4th


12th: MSW, 3+, 1m-Inner Turf (Super)

Our Noble Heart a half to Majesticperfection; White Hill (SCR) a half to Take Charge Lady; Note draw in of #15 Complete Dyno (20-1) who is an exotics candidate first time Sheppard and first time turf..

Most Likely: #10 Perfect Afleet 5-2
Best Value: #2 Our Noble Heart 15-1
Next Best: #3 Imaging 8-1
Exotics Use: #9 Bluember 12-1
Super Add: #15 Complete Dyno 20-1


<$50 P5 Play:

8: 2-6-7-8
9: 3-4
10: 1-2-3-6-7-8
11: 3-9
12: 10

4x2x6x2x1 = 96 x .50 = $48


<$75 P4 Play:

9: 3-4
10: 1-2-3-6-7-8
11: 3-9
12: 2-3-9-10-11-15

2x6x2x6 = 144 x .50 = $72


Good luck!
Steve

[Kasept]

GP SCR/CHG'S

[Kasept]

Track gives it up readily to those on/near the lead in the opener with only Coach Gravy making up any significant ground. All one turn, main track events (6-8f) until the turf 7th.. See what develops.

[jms62]

5 horses in the Swale totally sucks

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by jms62

5 horses in the Swale totally sucks

Ha!

Was Larry Collmus' call supposed to make that an exciting race?

[jms62]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Ha!

Was Larry Collmus' call supposed to make that an exciting race?

You are asking me? I tried to beat Travelin Man with Indiano...

[Kasept]

Field spread way out there in the 1m 4th, as it will at GP. Runner-up did a good job drawing close, but again, you need to be in the front half to have a chance on this surface.

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