Updated Derby Chances - Prep Recap

[The Indomitable DrugS]

The Blue Grass was a classic Poly prep.

Last week - Arkansas Derby winner Archarcharch was 2.5% (fair vale in the 40/1 to 50/1 range) to win the Kentucky Derby four weeks in advance of the race - while still needing to run one more time and pad his Graded earnings - he was an overlay at 25/1 today and made the best of a very good pace setup. Nehro - once again was wisely ridden - and once again finished up very strongly to finish 2nd.

The Factor simply proved rating tactics won't work for him. He's 1/5 to be the pacesetter in the KY Derby if he goes. I'm probably being too harsh dropping his win chances to 6.5% - but it's no lock that he's going to run in the KY Derby. His chances of winning may be 6.5% - but his chances of running 3rd and 4th are virtually zero.

A strong underlay coming into this week - The Factor might creep into overlay territory by race time. There have been so many pace collapses in the KY Derby - that we're due for a year when riders overreact and rate early on. Certainly, all other riders realize that going with a non-rated The Factor would be complete and utter suicide. His Rebel certainly proved he can stay when allowed loose on an unpressured lead.

Elite Alex's reportedly sensational workout in blinkers did not translate into anything good on the racetrack. It was easily the worst performance of his career - he barely beat Brethren.


Updated Chances of winning:


Uncle Mo (19.25%)
Dialed In (16.25%)
Archarcharch (8.25%)
Nehro (8%)
Midnight Interlude (8%)
The Factor (6.50%)
Mucho Macho Man (6.25%)
Toby's Corner (4.50%)
Silver Medallion (4%)
Soldat (3.5%)
Sheckleford (3.25%)
Jaycito (2.25%)
Pants on Fire (1.80%)
Brilliant Speed (1.25%)
Santiva (1%)
Decisive Moment (1%)
Animal Kingdom (1%)
Stay Thirsty (0.50%)
Twice the Appeal (0.25%)
Sway Away (0.25%)
Joe Vann (0.25%)
Bretheren (0.25%)
Watch Me Go (0.05%)


The Rest: 2.45%

[randallscott35]

I highly doubt Uncle Mo will be in the gate.

[paulo537]

You can get Mo at 6/1 or more offshore. Good luck with that. I make it 3/1 against him making the Derby.

The Factor displaced, I heard. He's 10/1 to make the Derby.

So I read here the out of the money 4/5 was a "strong underlay" and the 25/1 winner was an (well, of course) overlay.

Easy game.

[herkhorse]

Originally Posted by paulo537

You can get Mo at 6/1 or more offshore. Good luck with that. I make it 3/1 against him making the Derby.

The Factor displaced, I heard. He's 10/1 to make the Derby.

So I read here the out of the money 4/5 was a "strong underlay" and the 25/1 winner was an (well, of course) overlay.

Easy game.

I'll take that bet.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by herkhorse

I'll take that bet.

He's talking out of his ass.

[paulo537]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

He's talking out of his ass.

Right.

[paulo537]

Originally Posted by herkhorse

I'll take that bet.

How much did you wager?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by paulo537

So I read here the out of the money 4/5 was a "strong underlay" and the 25/1 winner was an (well, of course) overlay.

Easy game.

Since when is a horse that's 40/1 to win the Kentucky Derby 4 full weeks out - not an overlay at 25/1 in the Arkansas Derby?

Sometimes I seriously think some of you people are hopelessly retarded.

25/1 is a 4% chance of winning.

[johnny pinwheel]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Since when is a horse that's 40/1 to win the Kentucky Derby 4 full weeks out - not an overlay at 25/1 in the Arkansas Derby?

Sometimes I seriously think some of you people are hopelessly retarded.

25/1 is a 4% chance of winning.

yeah ok, but you have uncle mo at 19.25%.....what races have you been watching???what do you base the 19.25% on????? his race in november?? or the two most recent efforts?? two efforts that will go a long way to winning the derby.....but the "people" are retarded.....

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel

yeah ok, but you have uncle mo at 19.25%.....what races have you been watching???what do you base the 19.25% on????? his race in november?? or the two most recent efforts??

A repeat of his race in November - over the CD tracks - will easily win the KY Derby - and his two performances this year are about as good as the last two performances of any horse in this crop pointing for the KY Derby.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Since when is a horse that's 40/1 to win the Kentucky Derby 4 full weeks out - not an overlay at 25/1 in the Arkansas Derby?

Sometimes I seriously think some of you people are hopelessly retarded.

25/1 is a 4% chance of winning.

24/1 is 4%.

[Merlinsky]

Originally Posted by justindew

24/1 is 4%.

A little gift from me to you: http://www.calculator.com/calcs/calc_sci.html

[paulo537]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Since when is a horse that's 40/1 to win the Kentucky Derby 4 full weeks out - not an overlay at 25/1 in the Arkansas Derby?

Sometimes I seriously think some of you people are hopelessly retarded.

25/1 is a 4% chance of winning.

I see.

Your top two have, as you call it, a 35% chance of winning, right?

Neither of them has a greater than 50% chance of running.

I've seen people shoehorned into handicapping by BSFs before but really this is amazing.

I'll save the return insult and not label you a hopeless Mo-tard, but it was a bit of a tough decision.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by paulo537

I see.

Your top two have, as you call it, a 35% chance of winning, right?

Neither of them has a greater than 50% chance of running.

Really? I'd make a humongous bet at even money that Dialed In will run. Your statement is ridiculous unless you have some inside knowledge about Dialed In's condition, which I doubt.


--Dunbar

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by paulo537

I see.

You don't see anything - you're acting as if you have juicy inside-info on Uncle Mo's health .... chances are - you don't.

Beyer's play a VERY small role in my handicapping. Of course - since you're the analytically incompetent Johnny Pinwheel 2.0 - I'm sure you can't see that.

The fact that you don't even understand what an overlay is - is most amusing. I'll try and explain this one last time.

From last week....

Updated Chances of winning:

Uncle Mo (18.50%)
Dialed In (14.50%)
The Factor (12.50%)
Midnight Interlude (7.50%)
Elite Alex (6%)
Toby's Corner (4.50%)
Mucho Macho Man (4.25%)
Silver Medallion (4%)
Soldat (3.5%)
Sheckleford (3.25%)
Santiva (2.50%)
Archarcharch (2.50%)
Sway Away (2.50%)
Jaycito (2.00%)
Nehro (1.75%)
Astrology (1.50%)
Mr. Commons (1%)
Arthur's Tale (1%)
Decisive Moment (0.80%)
Pants on Fire (0.80%)
Animal Kingdom (0.80%)
Bretheren (0.50%)
Stay Thirsty (0.33%)
Twice the Appeal (0.25%)
Joe Vann (0.25%)
Watch Me Go (0.05%)

The Rest: 3.75%

Here are the horses who ran in the Arkansas Derby - with Derby odds four weeks out - and with closing odds yesterday:

The Factor (12.5%) Closing odds: 4-to-5
Elite Alex (6%) Closing odds: 6-to-1
Archarcharch (2.5%) Closing odds: 25-to-1
Sway Away (2.5%) Closing odds: 6-to-1
Nehro (1.75%) Closing odds: 9-to-1
Brethren (0.50%) Closing odds: 11-to-1

No one else in the race was quoted with a Derby chance - just grouped into 'The Rest' with several hundred other 3yo's.

Archarcharch was about 12-to-1 fair value to win yesterday - and relatively stronger than that to run underneath due to his versatile running style. I also felt Elite Alex was a slight overlay in the win end - but the addition of 1st time blinkers often leads to a boom or bust type of performance.

[paulo537]

[quote=paulo537;769565]You can get Mo at 6/1 or more offshore. Good luck with that. I make it 3/1 against him making the Derby.

QUOTE]

Questions, comments, remarks?

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

The Blue Grass was a classic Poly prep.

Last week - Arkansas Derby winner Archarcharch was 2.5% (fair vale in the 40/1 to 50/1 range) to win the Kentucky Derby four weeks in advance of the race - while still needing to run one more time and pad his Graded earnings - he was an overlay at 25/1 today and made the best of a very good pace setup. Nehro - once again was wisely ridden - and once again finished up very strongly to finish 2nd.

The Factor simply proved rating tactics won't work for him. He's 1/5 to be the pacesetter in the KY Derby if he goes. I'm probably being too harsh dropping his win chances to 6.5% - but it's no lock that he's going to run in the KY Derby. His chances of winning may be 6.5% - but his chances of running 3rd and 4th are virtually zero.

A strong underlay coming into this week - The Factor might creep into overlay territory by race time. There have been so many pace collapses in the KY Derby - that we're due for a year when riders overreact and rate early on. Certainly, all other riders realize that going with a non-rated The Factor would be complete and utter suicide. His Rebel certainly proved he can stay when allowed loose on an unpressured lead.

Elite Alex's reportedly sensational workout in blinkers did not translate into anything good on the racetrack. It was easily the worst performance of his career - he barely beat Brethren.


Updated Chances of winning:


Uncle Mo (19.25%)
Dialed In (16.25%)
Archarcharch (8.25%)
Nehro (8%)
Midnight Interlude (8%)
The Factor (6.50%)
Mucho Macho Man (6.25%)
Toby's Corner (4.50%)
Silver Medallion (4%)
Soldat (3.5%)
Sheckleford (3.25%)
Jaycito (2.25%)
Pants on Fire (1.80%)
Brilliant Speed (1.25%)
Santiva (1%)
Decisive Moment (1%)
Animal Kingdom (1%)
Stay Thirsty (0.50%)
Twice the Appeal (0.25%)
Sway Away (0.25%)
Joe Vann (0.25%)
Bretheren (0.25%)
Watch Me Go (0.05%)


The Rest: 2.45%

2000/1 on watch me go? Has he even run since Tampa?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

2000/1 on watch me go? Has he even run since Tampa?

Yes - he was drubbed in the Ill Derby.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

There have been so many pace collapses in the KY Derby - that we're due for a year when riders overreact and rate early on. Certainly, all other riders realize that going with a non-rated The Factor would be complete and utter suicide. His Rebel certainly proved he can stay when allowed loose on an unpressured lead.

Granted he may not be as fast early as The Factor, but don't you think that the above is likely the plan for Soldat (given his failed "rating" attempt) as well? Not to mention Shackelford and Comma To The Top.

I don't think those guys could take back, even if they wanted to.

What was the last wire job in the Derby, War Emblem? Was there any real speed in there that year to begin with? I recall Eddie D. prompting the pace with Perfect Drift, a horse was ridden well off the pace early in his preps.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Granted he may not be as fast early as The Factor, but don't you think that the above is likely the plan for Soldat (given his failed "rating" attempt) as well? Not to mention Shackelford and Comma To The Top.

I don't think those guys could take back, even if they wanted to.

You're probably right. I can't say I disagree - but if any of those go with The Factor - they will be baked.

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

What was the last wire job in the Derby, War Emblem? Was there any real speed in there that year to begin with? I recall Eddie D. prompting the pace with Perfect Drift, a horse was ridden well off the pace early in his preps.

Here are the past KY Derby leaders after 8fs - and the figure they needed to run to find themselves there (translated through Moss Pace figures) ....

2010: Noble's Promise (109 Beyer)
2009: Join In The Dance (98 Beyer)
2008: Big Brown (104 Beyer)
2007: Hard Spun (104 Beyer)
2006: Barbaro (98 Beyer)
2005: High Fly (109 Beyer)
2004: Lion Heart (112 Beyer)
2003: Peace Rules (106 Beyer)
2002: War Emblem (101 Beyer)
2001: Congaree (112 Beyer)
2000: Captain Steve (104 Beyer)
1999: Cat Thief (104 Beyer)
1998: Real Quiet (117 Beyer)
1997: Free House (106 Beyer)
1996: Unbridled's Song (115 Beyer)
1995: Serena's Song (106 Beyer)


Only 3 times out of 16 years (18.75%) did a horse manage to lead the Derby after a mile while running a figure of 101 or less to that point ....

In order for a horse like The Factor or Soldat to win the Derby - they need two things to happen imo.

* They need to first be loose on an unpressured lead through the opening half mile

* They need to get to the quarter pole running a figure no faster than a 101 or less

Considering the chances of the latter is about 18% ... if they have a 50% chance of pulling off the former ... it gives them about a 9% chance of winning IMO.

Obviously Soldat will have a harder time getting loose on an uncontested lead than The Factor would - for the simple fact that he doesn't have nearly as much early zip.