First Race after the Layoff

[Sightseek]

Any tips/thoughts on determining when to bet a horse running his first race off a layoff or deciding that its "going to need one"?

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Any tips/thoughts on determining when to bet a horse running his first race off a layoff or deciding that its "going to need one"?

Well tons of things to consider here in my opinion.

1) has the work schedule been consistant over the past couple of months
2) how was the horse performing prior to the layoff
3) what is the trainer % with horses off of a layoff
4) at what level is the horse competing. Example: If the horse was competing in $30k allowance races and he is entered in a $10k claiming race then that tells me they want to get rid of the horse. Then you have to ask why do they want to get rid of him.
5) what is the competition in the race
6) are wraps on that werent there before the layoff

Take all that and then make a decision.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by eurobounce

Well tons of things to consider here in my opinion.

1) has the work schedule been consistant over the past couple of months
2) how was the horse performing prior to the layoff
3) what is the trainer % with horses off of a layoff
4) at what level is the horse competing. Example: If the horse was competing in $30k allowance races and he is entered in a $10k claiming race then that tells me they want to get rid of the horse. Then you have to ask why do they want to get rid of him.
5) what is the competition in the race
6) are wraps on that werent there before the layoff

Take all that and then make a decision.

Thanks! Regarding #6, and I hope this doesn't sound like a stupid question, but is that something you have to notice yourself by having seen the horse in the paddock before or do they note that in the PP's? I recall several people calling into the Down the Stretch show (which is a Saturday a.m program shown here in NY) about Bluegrass Cat's addition of them, but I was looking more for BGC to be 'on his toes' than thinking about the wraps. Regardless, he wouldn't have breathed the same air as Bernardini in the stretch but I had never thought of the addition of them being an issue.

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Thanks! Regarding #6, and I hope this doesn't sound like a stupid question, but is that something you have to notice yourself by having seen the horse in the paddock before or do they note that in the PP's? I recall several people calling into the Down the Stretch show (which is a Saturday a.m program shown here in NY) about Bluegrass Cat's addition of them, but I was looking more for BGC to be 'on his toes' than thinking about the wraps. Regardless, he wouldn't have breathed the same air as Bernardini in the stretch but I had never thought of the addition of them being an issue.

I prob wouldnt be the best person to ask. But when I look over a horse, I always check for wraps. Wraps on the back legs concerns me more than wraps on the front. Maybe someone can chime in and answer you question.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by eurobounce

Wraps on the back legs concerns me more than wraps on the front.

? On the east coast 90% of horses race with hind wraps?

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

? On the east coast 90% of horses race with hind wraps?

So, I dont get your point. If a horse has never raced with wraps and then I notice them on the back legs then that concerns me more so than seeing them in the front. If a horse has always used wraps then it doesnt bother me at all.

[Pointg5]

Originally Posted by eurobounce

I prob wouldnt be the best person to ask. But when I look over a horse, I always check for wraps. Wraps on the back legs concerns me more than wraps on the front. Maybe someone can chime in and answer you question.

Most everything that I have heard was wraps on the front are a bad sign, although Afleet Alex added them during his 3yo campaign. They put them on Silverbulletday towards the end of her career and I just read that they added them to BGC before the Travers, that was a bad sign....

Originally Posted by Pointg5

Most everything that I have heard was wraps on the front are a bad sign, although Afleet Alex added them during his 3yo campaign. They put them on Silverbulletday towards the end of her career and I just read that they added them to BGC before the Travers, that was a bad sign....

I think wraps of any kind that are added are bad. But maybe I am wrong. Maybe the front is worse. I always have had experiece with the back being worse. Maybe someone who knows something about wraps and why they are used can share some knowledge.

[KY_Sasquash]

Originally Posted by eurobounce

Well tons of things to consider here in my opinion.

1) has the work schedule been consistant over the past couple of months
2) how was the horse performing prior to the layoff
3) what is the trainer % with horses off of a layoff
4) at what level is the horse competing. Example: If the horse was competing in $30k allowance races and he is entered in a $10k claiming race then that tells me they want to get rid of the horse. Then you have to ask why do they want to get rid of him.
5) what is the competition in the race
6) are wraps on that werent there before the layoff

Take all that and then make a decision.

I also look at how long the race is especially if it's more than 60 days. I have no stats/research on this, but if a horse is coming back in a sprint race I'm not as worried about it, if they're going a route i'm more inclined to give them a race while also taking into consideration what's mentioned above (trainer,works, has the horse fired well off a similar layoff, etc.)

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by KY_Sasquash

I also look at how long the race is especially if it's more than 60 days. I have no stats/research on this, but if a horse is coming back in a sprint race I'm not as worried about it, if they're going a route i'm more inclined to give them a race while also taking into consideration what's mentioned above (trainer,works, has the horse fired well off a similar layoff, etc.)

What about horses at the Stakes level? Do you notice more often or not that they are entered to 'prep' for something else? Whereas a claimer/allowance horse is out there to win?

[Damascus '67]

Euro mentioned both front and rear wraps. I only was commenting on the rear.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

some trainers are great at bringing them back live..but for me it would be on a case to case basis..depending on conditions of the race ect..

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Any tips/thoughts on determining when to bet a horse running his first race off a layoff or deciding that its "going to need one"?

Check a trainers ITM% on layoff horses. You'd be surprised how many trainers win like 10% with layoff horses but are in the money 52% usually at good prices since everybody knows who the high % guys are. You can get some live longshots especially if the horse was off form before the layoff.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Check a trainers ITM% on layoff horses. You'd be surprised how many trainers win like 10% with layoff horses but are in the money 52% usually at good prices since everybody knows who the high % guys are. You can get some live longshots especially if the horse was off form before the layoff.

Thanks!
I'm trying to get rid of my "wait and see" approach.