8/27: Saratoga (Day 32; Travers Day)

Kasept · #1 08-27-2011, 04:00 AM

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: ALW/N1X, 3+, 7f (P3, DD,. Super)

Most Likely: #3 Global Power 7-2 4th
Best Value: #6 Rein King 15-1 5th
Exotics Use: #1a (POE) Shrewd One 3-1 2nd/3rd
Super Add: #12 Trulee Scrappin 8-1 7th

2nd: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1e Pletcher entry 8-5 2nd/8th
Next Best: #7 Covert Ops 4-1 6th
Best Value: #3 Fire On Ice 6-1 WON ($7.50)
Super Add: #8 Casual Trick 7-2 5th

3rd: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #9 SEVE 8-1 6th
Exotics Use: #10 Anonymous Donor 6-1 11th
Next Best: #12 Daddy Nose Best 5-1 WON ($10.60)
Super Add: #5 State Flag 12-1 4th

4th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #7 Fine Flyer 12-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Good Prospect 3-1 WON ($6.90)
Exotics Use: #3 Hanson Heights 8-1 4th
Super Add: #8 Desert Wheat 6-1 3rd

5th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Juvy event has a strange feel to it with cast made up of mostly firsters from 'better 2nd time' barns. Pedigree hints not overly abundant either despite Trophy Wife being out of BC Distaff winner Pleasant Home, etc. Will utilize 2nd out players drom Romans and Guillot and throw acouple of possibilities into the mix with them..

Most Likely: #10 Mi Vida 7-2: Pretty filly grabs lead; Dam full sis of Majestic Warrior.. 5th
Best Value: #7 Miss Netta 6-1: Sib to slew of West Coast stakes types; Solid drills.. WON ($17.00)
Exotics Use: #4 Stellabymoonlight SCRATCHED
Super Add: #3 Yellow Boat 12-1: Benzel FTS can hit board, and Ramon sees fit to ride.. 2nd

SCRATCH ADD: #2 Try to Catch Her 12-1 8th

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 1-3-6-7-8
3: 9-10
4: 3-4-7
5: 2-3-7-8-10

5x2x3x5 = 150 x .50 = $75

6th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Sextant 7-2 6th
Best Value: #9 Catchapenny K 15-1 8th
Exotics Use: #3 Sarah's Pleasure 9-2 7th
Super Add: #5 Strategic Missile 10-1 WON ($24.00)

7th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-IT (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Fizzano 7-2: Speed in event devoid of pace; Ramon sticks.. WON ($6.60)
Next Best: #1 Seattle Mission 9-2: Perenial hanger prefers Spa, stays close.. 3rd
Best Value: #5 Mr. Hooker 30-1: 2nd (52-1) this event Travers Day '10.. 9th
Super Add: #2 Wishingonadream 30-1: Mediocrity fares best when inside.. 7th

8th: 23rd Ballston Spa (G2), F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Not that many in here can't win, but don't you want the pair exiting the G1 Diana in Aviate and Mekong Melody? They both had some reasonable excuses for not winning, and simply own a class edge. Tapisfly, Miss Keller SCR'D and Strike the Bell are 10-1, 10-1 and 15-1 respectively, and are interchangeable as frustrating underperformers this annum, and all deserve spots on exotics plays as tote boosters..

Most Likely: #7 Aviate 4-1 5th
Best Value: #9 Tapitsfly 10-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Mekong Melody 8-1 4th
Super Add: #2 Romacaca 7-2 3rd

<$75 P4 Play:

5: 2-3-7-8-10
6: 2-3-5-6-9
7: 1-6
8: 5-7-9

5x5x2x3 = 150 x .50 = $75

9th: 9th Victory Ride (G3), 3yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #6 Hot Summer 8-1: Back to one turn; Gets pace to chase.. WON ($16.40)
Next Best: #3 A Z Warrior 6-1: Sharp for comeback; Baffert deadly these settings 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Funny Sunny 6-1: Got turf dash tightener; Stalks up close.. 5th
Super Add: #9 Roman Treasure 5-1: Lone participant here from season's G1 sprints.. 3rd

10th: 33rd Ballerina (G1), F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Nothing imaginative to confer here..

Most Likely: #7 Sassy Image 5-2 6th
Next Best: #6 Tar Heel Mom 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Hilda's Passion 2-1 WON ($7.10)
Best Value: #2 Tamarind Hall 6-1 3rd

11th: 27th King's Bishop (G1), 3yo, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Sire-making race has a Beyer par of 108 and no set pattern or requirement of the winner as pure sprinters and classy cutback types have both been successful here. One thing is notable, and that is good previous tries over the surface, notably at age 2. Uncle Mo certainly can win this if close to his best, and Pletcher would not be showcasing him here if he were not suitably prepared..

Best Value: #8 Cool Blue Red Hot 12-1 8th
Next Best: #1 Flashpoint 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Uncle Mo 9-5 2nd
Super Add: #2 Caleb's Posse 9-2 WON ($13.80)

12th: 142nd Travers S. (G1), 3yo, 10f (DD, Super)

As discussed all week, a fun and accomplished group has come together for the season's main event, with only the sidelined Derby winner missing from the cast. What isn't there to like about the Preakness, Belmont, Haskell and Jim Dandy winners in one race, challenged by a solid set of aspirants? Believe Mott may be sitting on second Saudi soph success in 2 weeks as A.P. Indy colt Raison d'Etat appears to be right horse in right place at right time at right price..

Best Value: #6 Raison d'Etat 10-1: Came to hand; Abdullah makes 1st Spa visit today.. 8th
Next Best: #10 Shackleford 9-2: Too tough to ignore despite question of last 100 yards.. 7th
Exotics Use: #9 Stay Thirsty 5-2: Deserving fave off Dandy, 3/2-1-0 mark this strip.. WON ($6.80)
Super Add: #7 Coil 3-1: Seeks unique 3 generation win this event (Point Given; Thunder Gulch).. 9th

<$75 P4 Play:

9: 3-5-6
10: 3-6-7
11: 1-2-7-8
12: 6-7-9-10

3x3x4x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

$.50 Pick 4 (6-3-2-9) Paid $363.25

13th: NY-MSW, 3+, 8.5f-IT (Super)

Best Value: #2 What's the Record 10-1 9th
Next Best: #1 Windafull 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Cincinnati Kid 3-1 WON ($8.70)
Super Add: #4 Majesty's Pilgrim 15-1 8th

Good luck!
Steve