Lukas Handicapping Angle

Rupert Pupkin · #1 06-07-2006, 05:10 PM

Lukas will not turn a horse out no matter what. He will keep injecting them and keep running them even with serious injuries. He will not stop running a horse until it is physically impossible for the horse to run. I don't follow the small tracks but I'm sure there are plenty of guys out there that do the exact same thing with $5,000 claimers. I'm not condonig it even with $5,000 claimers but I'm sure that there are guys that won't turn out a $5,000 claimer because they don't think it's economical. However, I am not aware of any trainer aside from Lukas that treats good horses in this way.
If you look at any normal trainer out there whether it's Pletcher, Baffert, Ellis, Canani, etc. if they have a decent horse and the horse has an injury, they will turn the horse out. In most cases, the horse will come back as good as ever. With all of these trainers, you will see their horses come back from 6 month layoffs, 9 month layofffs, and even 12+ month layoffs and come back as good as ever and have really good campaigns. You will never see this with a Lukas horse. The reason is because he won't turn the horse out until the horse is os badly hurt that the horse will never be the same. That is why you will never see a D Wayne horse come back from a layoff and have a successful campaign. When one of his horses stops running, they usually never run again. If they do make it back, they are usually so far gone that they don't last for more than 1 or 2 races.
So the Lukas handicapping angle is to know that if you ever see a Lukas horse coming back from a layoff, that horse will never be the same horse again. As I said, once in a great while he may get 1 or 2 races out of the horse but that does not happen that often and that is the best case scenario. You know that the horse is not coming back sound. That is definitely good information to have.

DiscreetCat=Monster · #2 06-07-2006, 05:13 PM

I agree with you 100% that guy ran GOING WILD last year in all 3 legs of the triple crown and got beat a combine 128 lengths then didn't even give the horse any time off he kept him in NY and ran him in Graded races sprinting what a joke. This guy is not the trainer he used to be and when he gets a good horse he puts them in way over their head.

#3 06-07-2006, 05:38 PM

I couldn't agree more. I do think however, this guys is the exact same guy he was before. He has been destroying and killing horses his whole life. Nobody noticed before because he still had enought expensive horses bought for him that would win and cover up all the terrible things this man did.

Danzig · #4 06-07-2006, 06:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LOSE=GLUE

This guy is not the trainer he used to be and when he gets a good horse he puts them in way over their head.

yeah, like this horse:

Breeders Cup 2005 Winners
Juvenile Fillies - 2YO Fillies - 1 1/16 miles
Folklore/ D Wane Lukas/ E. Prado/ 1:43.85

DiscreetCat=Monster · #5 06-07-2006, 08:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig188

yeah, like this horse:

Breeders Cup 2005 Winners
Juvenile Fillies - 2YO Fillies - 1 1/16 miles
Folklore/ D Wane Lukas/ E. Prado/ 1:43.85

Did You Realize she never won another race and then he broke her down, I think out of all the horses to win a BC race last year, she was the 1st one to run back. What other horses out of that Filly race came back and won? I don't think Wild Fit has won. Stevie Wonderboys time in the Juvenile was like 12 lenghts faster than folklore it was a weak JF BC.

Suffolk Shippers · #6 06-07-2006, 06:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LOSE=GLUE

I agree with you 100% that guy ran GOING WILD last year in all 3 legs of the triple crown and got beat a combine 128 lengths then didn't even give the horse any time off he kept him in NY and ran him in Graded races sprinting what a joke. This guy is not the trainer he used to be and when he gets a good horse he puts them in way over their head.

It's one thing to take your shot in the Kentucky Derby just because it is what is. It's another thing to take a horse and grind him into the ground against vastly superior competition in the rest of the Triple Crown series, when he is clearly over matched. Hell, Giacomo was overmatched come Belmont time. Going Wild was a joke, Lucas is losing his luster very quickly.

Rupert Pupkin · #7 06-07-2006, 06:51 PM

Folklore is finished. She will never run again. She didn't even make it to her 3 year old year. What would you rather do, would you arther win the BC Juvenille Filly and and have your horse never race again or would you rather not win that race but have your filly win some major 3 year old and possible 4 year old races. I know how I would answer that question. I would rather have the horse healthy and running rather than winning the one huge 2 year old race and then never running again.

Danzig · #8 06-07-2006, 06:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

Folklore is finished. She will never run again. She didn't even make it to her 3 year old year. What would you rather do, would you arther win the BC Juvenille Filly and and have your horse never race again or would you rather not win that race but have your filly win some major 3 year old and possible 4 year old races. I know how I would answer that question. I would rather have the horse healthy and running rather than winning the one huge 2 year old race and then never running again.

she ran once at three, a third place, and then the stress fracture....

he could have bypassed the bc race, she could have still come up with an injury and been retired. she won when she was ready. and now she's worth a hell of a lot more, and her foals will sell for tons more since she was named top 2 yo filly.

remember when zito had five live horses at the end of their two year old season, several of which would have been on a lot of people tickets had they run bc day? and he bypassed the race to 'save' them for the derby. remember how well they all did? he could have had a bcj champ, instead he had no 2 yo champ, and no 3 yo either.

according to lukas, folklore could have come back after a layoff. but they were afraid she would be compromised, not as good. hell, you'd think you'd praise him for not running another into the ground, bringing her back after an injury! the guy can't win!

Rupert Pupkin · #9 06-07-2006, 07:19 PM

If I remember correctly, I think there was a lot of suspsicion about Folklore's condition going into that Santa Anita race. I think she only had a few works going in. I don't think she came out of the BC very well.
I don't remeber what her injury was but it was a serious injury. She is a valuable horse and they didn't think she would ever be the same again. There was no way they were going to bring her back.

Ruhlmann · #10 06-07-2006, 09:05 PM

About the only older horse I remember Lukas having was Steinlen. BC Miler Champ and Horse of the year, I think. It's not so much how many horses broke down with Lukas because he had lots of horses which raised his percentage to have more break down. His thoughts are more with the owners that "broke down". Gene Klien, WT White, and Bob Lewis were major clients with deep pockets. When those guys died, I bet a little bit of D Wayne went with him. While watching the week before the Derby by Yum this year, you sensed a different D Wayne. Still with an opinion, but not about his horse. He was undercover. The man has seen it and done it all. At 70, I think he deserves all respect and let that sleepy dog be.