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#1
02-04-2012, 12:45 PM
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Projecting figures for very old races.
Two people now have asked me about how I do this. It's very simple to do.
The one huge advantage you have of making figures for a day from 30 years ago VS making figures for yesterdays races -- is that you can pull up forms and results for all of the horses subsquent races and finishes. The hardest part with these old figures is gauging how class levels of old relate to class levels of todays racing. Thankfully, class levels were MUCH simpler and straight-forward decades ago. Here's an example: May 27th 1979 Belmont Park. Three dirt routes.    The three races are a 35K open claiming race for older males at Belmont (Todays Beyer Par for this class level at BEL is a 91) An N3X ALW for older females (Todays Beyer Par for this class level is a 89) and the Peter Pan Stakes (The Beyer par for the Peter Pan is a 103) Coastal won the Peter Pan in 1:47 flat. His time was 21 points faster than Peat Moss ran in his 5.75 length romping win. Coastal's time was also 37 points faster than Propitiate in her 3.5 length N3X Alw win. In theory, because of inflation, an open 35K claiming race from 1979 should be tougher than an open 35K race from today. I translate an open 35K from '79 to equal an open 50K and a 94 par from today. Anyway, it was clearly an above par 35K CLM race. Peat Moss was making his first start at 9 furlongs since a Remsen try where he was bet some against Believe It and Alydar. He had closed strongly at a mile last out.  Peat Moss famously would rise from the claiming ranks and once won at 2 miles under 145lbs and was 2nd by a half length to John Henry in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. * Debtor's Haven (2nd by 5.75 lengths) was first and second in two prior starts and would be 1st and 2nd in two subsquent starts at the same class level. Has the surrounding form of a low 90's horse. * Lancer's Pride (3rd by 9.75 lengths) would win an open 30K claiming race at Belmont next time out...just a few weeks later. Lancer's Pride was a 42-time winner for his career! Consistant with a high 80's horse) * Framarco (4th by 12.5 lengths) would come back to run 3rd and 2nd at the open 30K claiming level at Belmont in his next two starts. As for older female N3X alw winner Propitiate. She would go on to make over 200K in her career and be three-time Graded Stakes placed... but she would only finish 3rd in an alw next out and her clear win would rate below par for the class level. The 2nd place finisher Abold Dame would run 4th in an alw next out...she did become a stakes winner a few months later. 3rd place finisher Shirley The Queen had been 2nd in the Cicada Stakes two months earlier -- she would run 4th in an ALW at the same level next out. Finally, 13-length Peter Pan winner Coastal. He was a wildly underrated and extremely fast 3-year-old. He won the Belmont Stakes next out. Crushed the undefeated Private Account despite carrying 12lbs more in the Dwyer. And took the Grade 1 Monmouth Invitational under 127lbs by a clear margin to go 6-for-6 with all clear margin wins to start his 3yo season. Lucy's Axe (2nd by 13 lengths) would win a stakes race next out. He won the Rebel Stakes earlier in the year over Tunerup. He would win a Grade 3 a few races later. Consistant with a par 2nd place finisher for a race like the Peter Pan. Pianist (3rd by 14.25 lengths) would run 2nd in an ALW race next out and finish 3rd in the Jim Dandy. Consistant with a par 3rd place finisher for a race like the Peter Pan. Projected figures for this day: Peat Moss: 101 Debtor's Haven: 92 Lancer's Pride: 85 Framarco: 81 Propitiate: 85 Abold Dame: 79 Shirley The Queen: 78 Coastal: 122 Lucy's Axe: 101 Pianist: 99 It's takes a hell of a lot longer to explain them than to actually do them. But, that's basically the whole entire process I use for making historical projections of figures. 
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#2
02-05-2012, 07:39 AM
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Doug,
This is very cool. Beyond the projections of pars, what are you using to project the speed of the track on any particular day? (And Haskin agrees with you that Coastal is under-appreciated.)
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#3
02-05-2012, 11:10 AM
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Don't we need Jerry Brown and a doobie in this conversation, so he can explain how the tracks have changed so much since 1979? One of two things have happened, either the tracks have gotten deeper(not safer) or the drugs were STRONGER 40 years ago, which I dont buy. I dont think the drugs were better and I doubt the breed has become less refined(slower) from breeding my guess is the tracks are much deeper. But then again I am wrong about everything.lol
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#4
02-05-2012, 11:47 AM
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He has 10K claimers now running faster than great horses like Alysheba and Sunday Silence. Horses have become SIGNIFICANTLY faster at all class levels on his figures. On Beyer figures -- they're becoming a little slower...but by using pars from today you'll get figures a lot more consistant for where they're at now. 133 from Gun Bow was the fastest I've ever had using todays pars.
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#6
02-05-2012, 12:06 PM
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#9
02-05-2012, 12:21 PM
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#10
02-05-2012, 11:39 AM
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Two of his three defeats came to the older horse Affirmed (at peak form) and one of them to Spectacular Bid. Coastal had a big closing kick as well...and could stay any distance (won the Tyro at 5.5 furlongs, won the Belmont at 12fs) and he could also handle a wet racetrack.
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