Bounce theory

[snakeb]

Does anyone believe in this theory? If so, are there statistics to back it up? I read it everyday in the form but I have a hard time buying into this. Can anyone give examples of quality horses "bouncing"?

[dellinger63]

I don't believe in it.

Too many factors going into why a horse throws a bad performance and even more involved in a career effort. Those have much more to do w/predicting how a horse will do in a future race than a bounce. IMO

And if someone wanted to predict what would be considered a bounce I think making note of how each horse comes back after a race would be supreme to looking at a race on paper.

[snakeb]

I agree with what you said. A lot of talk going on about running Cigar Street back in 3 weeks in the LA Derby and a common opinion is he will bounce. If a horse is feeling good and the race didnt take a lot out of a horse why would bouncing be a factor? I have been trying to find examples of horses bouncing but hard to find stats.

A bounce is a physical reaction to a maximum effort.

Let's say you go to the gym every day. On each machine you can solidly do 25 reps.

As you begin to get stronger and in better shape one day you feel especially strong. So instead of your usual 25 you bang out 30 on each and feel like a badass doing it. You've just run a new top!

Next day you feel it more. Bit more stiffness and soreness. Nothing wrong with that. Great to feel that way. However if you went back the following day not only could you not repeat the 30 you'd be hard pressed to return to the old plateau of 25. What happened? You bounced.

When the body does something special and better than ever before it needs more time to recover.

Same with horses except they can't tell their trainer.

Good grief. Thoroughbred horses are not equal to some fat ass going to workout everyday.

Please Lord strike me with lightning so I don't have to read this horsesh.it any longer.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

Good grief. Thoroughbred horses are not equal to some fat ass going to workout everyday.

Please Lord strike me with lightning so I don't have to read this horsesh.it any longer.

[joeydb]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

Good grief. Thoroughbred horses are not equal to some fat ass going to workout everyday.

Please Lord strike me with lightning so I don't have to read this horsesh.it any longer.

OK - same question to you - are "bounces" real or not? Are they causal or just variations in performance that can't be anticipated?

[joeydb]

Originally Posted by v j stauffer

A bounce is a physical reaction to a maximum effort.

Let's say you go to the gym every day. On each machine you can solidly do 25 reps.

As you begin to get stronger and in better shape one day you feel especially strong. So instead of your usual 25 you bang out 30 on each and feel like a badass doing it. You've just run a new top!

Next day you feel it more. Bit more stiffness and soreness. Nothing wrong with that. Great to feel that way. However if you went back the following day not only could you not repeat the 30 you'd be hard pressed to return to the old plateau of 25. What happened? You bounced.

When the body does something special and better than ever before it needs more time to recover.

Same with horses except they can't tell their trainer.

I think that's a good definition. Keeping with your workout analogy, you might have a superior horse after an effort if there was no long term injury, after the short term recovery is complete.

You'd also have to isolate any other causes as best you can. A lower Beyer reached as the result of a bad start would give us doubt about it being a "bounce" event.

If the track conditions were especially favorable one day, similar to the case where the gym athlete happened to workout when they FINALLY lubed the weight stack, and the horse ran better than he could otherwise and then reverts to normal performance - that would not be a bounce either.

And, absent of any cause we could find through observation or searching the recorded data, variations in performance just occur. To me, like your definition of a physical reaction, a real bounce would have to be an interdependence of performances - one driving the subsequent potential lower, actively.