4/11: Aqueduct (4th-9th); Keeneland (4th-8th); Oaklawn (7th-10th)

[Kasept]

AQUEDUCT


POST-SCRATCHES


4th: OC/S-ALW, 4+, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Good morning line makes it tough to find value, but it may come from the 4-1 on #8 Fourseventeen who sends conflicting signals. Tony Dutrow had to shelf the $30k claimant for 12 weeks after Michael Dubb -- as shrewd at the claim box as anyone around -- chose to collar him at GP. That says he was not right or got sick. While 44% first off the claim overall, Dutrow surprisingly is just 3 for 16 (19%) when he's had to wait (60-180 days) to get new acquisitions back on the track. Fourseventeen has had 4 works since the post-tag 6 week break and draws Napravnik. It's also interesting that the NY bred runs in this quirky open company event when eligible for his state-bred condition..

Best Value: #8 Fourseventeen 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 King Ting 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Change of Command 7-2 WON ($5.20)
Super Add: #6 Lindell A. C. 10-1 5th


5th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

As pointed out by Andy Serling Tuesday on ATR, #4 Sing Like a Bird (Now SCR'd) from low profile Pugh must have had buzz as 2yo drawing Dominguez for Saratoga debut and going off as 3-2 fave. Didn't lift a hoof, disappeared for 8+ months and returns here with Chris DeCarlo as 2-1 ML choice. Shaky..

Most Likely: #9 Bandini's Diamond 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #3 Typhoon Teri 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Deputy Jazz 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #8 Hall of Flame 8-1 8th


6th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Race is uglier than it looks on paper with suspect after suspect and lots of murky turf breeding. The 2 short priced favorites (#3 Vintage Heirloom and #4 Bye Love You) feel unreliable, but any direction you take thereafter will be a reach. #9 Blazing Arches has the top and bottom pedigree for lawn, but as Andy pointed out on Tuesday, did not sell well and hasn't shown a spec of talent. #7 Three Bet dropped from a dam that had real success on the lawn, but like Blazing Arches, hasn't shown even modest ability. Believe in Betty and She's Starstruck would be wider ticket alternatives for the multis..

Most Likely: #4 Bye Love You 8-5 4th
Best Value: #9 Blazing Arches 12-1 6th
Next Best: #3 Late SCR
Exotics Use: #7 Three Bet 8-1 3rd


7th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

Funny assembly and good betting affair as once you get beyond the faves, there are with some horses that have races in their past that can compete here at prices..

Most Likely: #5 Quietism 3-1 4th
Best Value: #1 Awesome Merger 20-1 6th
Next Best: #9 Our Eli 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Silent Thunder 5-1 7th


8th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Mela Dramatically 8-5 4th
Next Best: #3 Junoon 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #2 Mah Jong Maddnes 6-1 WON ($18.00)
Exotics Use: #1 (POE) She's Always Hot 5-1 2nd


9th: NY-MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (Super)

Most Likely: #3 Tycoon Cat 5-2 8th
Best Value: #2 One Speedy Cat 6-1 WON ($15.60)
Next Best: #1 Camie's Magic 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Lucky Lil Liam 6-1 5th


<$50 P4 Play:

6: 2-3/SCR-4-6-7-9
7: 1-3-5-9
8: 3-5
9: 2-3

6x4x2x2 = 96 x .50 = $48



KEENELAND


POST-SCRATCHES


4th: ALW/N2X, F&M-4+, 12f-T (P5, P3, DD, Super)

While top pair appear a slight notch above, next three -- including #4 Soul of Nataka (5-1) -- are interchangeable..

#2 Starformer SCR's

Most Likely: #3 Hasay 3-1 WON ($3.20)
Best Value: #5 Rose Medallion 5-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Soul of Nataka 5-1 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Turns My Head 6-1 2nd


5th: MSW, 4+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Hard to not root for breakthrough from Stewart Madison's and Andy Leggio's Mr. Ticket, son of the late Happy Ticket, one of my favorites ever. Looks to have found the right field too..

Most Likely: #3 Mr. Ticket 5-2 5th
Next Best: #5 Karma Shield 2-1 6th
Best Value: #6 Never Cross 20-1 7th
Exotics Use: #1 Sir McIntyre 5-2 WON ($6.60)


6th: ALW/N1X, 4+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Lopresti here with Casino Dan, ouchy brother of Wise Dan and Friday return winner Successful Dan. Broke maiden at Turfway 2/20 and looks to have been immediately pointed for this..

Most Likely: #5 Casino Dan 4-1 9th
Best Value: #4 Voodoo Doctor 20-1 7th
Next Best: #1 Red Ace 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #9 Saint Will 12-1 5th


7th: ALW/C, F&M-4+, 1m-T (DD, Super)

One of the highlights on a busy Wednesday of racing is this stakes quality allowance that includes return of '11 Queens Plate winner Inglorious for Donver & Josie Carroll. Not an easy spot by any measure and given it is her first turf start, this may simply be a season-starting tightener. Along with Inglorious, 7 more of the 11 here are making their first start of the year and 2 more (Lunar Mist & Good Karma) are coming in off Jan/Feb starts. Only Ravi's Song is in the midst of a form cycle, so don't expect that 12-1 to hold up..

Most Likely: #11 Marketing Mix 3-1 WON ($5.20)
Best Value: #5 Ravi's Song 12-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Hungry Island 9-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #10 Miss Liberty 3-1 10th


8th: S/ALW, F&M-4+, 7f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #7 Networking 8-5 4th
Next Best: #5 One Last Nighmare 2-1 WON ($8.40)
Best Value: #11 Lady Durlyn 8-1 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Queen of Scioto 8-1 8th
Super/Hi-5: #1 Awesome and Wild 12-1 3rd


<$50 P5 Play:

4: 3-4-5-7
5: 3
6: 1-4-5-9-11-12
7: 5-7-10-11
8: 7

4x1x6x4x1 = 96 x .50 = $48


<$50 P4 Play:

5: 3-5
6: 1-4-5-9-11-12
7: 5-7-10-11
8: 5-7

2x6x4x2 = 96 x .50 = $48



OAKLAWN PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


7th: OC/N2X, 4+, 6f (P4)

Fave Bet the Power can adjust to whatever pace scenario develops but 2nd choice City Cool needs to improve to compete..

Most Likely: #5 Bet the Power 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #2 Chief of Affairs 6-1 7th
Next Best: #7 Picko's Pride 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Dryden 8-1 WON ($18.00)


8th: MDN CLM, 3-5yo, 1m (P3)

Best Value: #7 Alejandro B 10-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Tensaw 5-2 WON ($6.40)
Exotics Use: #5 Artillery 7-2 3rd


9th: 40th Fantasy (G2), 3yo-F, 8.5f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Mamma Kimbo 5-2 WON ($$4.80)
Next Best: #8 Amie's Dini 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #7 Illegally Blonde 15-1 7th
Exotics Use: #2 Wait Til Dawn 9-2 4th


10th:ALW/N2L, 3+, 6f (Super)

Best Value: #8 Strasbourg 9-5 5th
Next Best: #5 Speighter Man 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #11 Basalt 10-1 -
Super Add: #6 Jerry n' Elvis 3-1 2nd


<$50 P4 Play:

7: 5
8: 3-5-7
9: 1-2-7-8
10: 5-6-8-11

1x3x4x4 = $48 ($24 for .50)


Good luck!
Steve

[VOL JACK]

You are exactly right about the ML Steve.

It can make a huge difference in the way to approach a card.
NYRA needs to fire Eric Donavan and find an incapable replacement..

With that said, I will look for ways to exploit the 12:1ml on Ravi's Song.

[MaTH716]

Question: What is that condition run on 3/18? I understand the optional 15K, but can't figure out what the 7K is for.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by MaTH716

Question: What is that condition run on 3/18? I understand the optional 15K, but can't figure out what the 7K is for.

Starter ALW with $7k being the claiming amount.

[MaTH716]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Starter ALW with $7k being the claiming amount.

Thank you Steve.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Wild guess here, I have no real idea... I'm thinking they wrote the race as an Open Company OC 15k and added an additional Starter Alw 7K condition for LA breds. That's probably completely wrong

[Rudeboyelvis]

Late to class as usual - thanks Steve

[MaTH716]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

Late to class as usual - thanks Steve

Just for today, you get a pass.

[MaTH716]

Listed on the Keenland site:

RACE 5
#1--Sir McIntyre--Is a gelding

[Kasept]

AQU -- $22k C/O

[Kasept]

That was a stylish effort by Mamma Kimbo..

[cal828]

Ersa

Originally Posted by Kasept

That was a stylish effort by Mamma Kimbo..

I agree. Funny because I was reading stuff on Oaklawn's website under "fan education" in which they quoted Marion Vanburg as having said "never back a sprinter against a router and vice versa." I guess they forgot to tell the goat about that.