Kentucky Derby 137

[thunderdan09]

#1 - Daddy Long Legs : Although shippers from across seas have traditionally not faired well in this race, this horse intrigues me for a couple of reasons... If O'Brien thought the same thing would happen here that happened in November at CD, I don't think he would have shipped... His last start leaves room for improvement and if you forgive the lone dirt start, he could jump up for a piece.... Has won going longer than anyone in this race (1 3/16 mile)

Current Odds (26-1)

#2 - Optimizer : Lukas gets one in this because of some others deciding not to run.... The horse has won once in 9 careers starts. It will be his 5th start as a three year old and his only game effort was a second place finish to Secret Circle in the Rebel. John Court gets his shot in the Derby, but I think he's realistic odds are more in 99-1 range.

Current Odds (31-1)

#3 - Take Charge Indy : If you take Calvin Borel off this horse what are his odds right now, probably not 8-1... He was a highly thought of two year old and ran game at 25-1 in the BC Juvenile. He has come back at three years-old and improved even more.... With Brisnet speed figures of 109 in an AOC75k from Gulfstream in which he was beat by El Padrino by two lengths. He came back and took advantage of the pace bias in the Florida Derby to beat Reveron and Union Rags. Who says there won't be a pace bias tomorrow? Tough call with all the speed in the race. I see him sitting pretty just behind the leaders, but he doesn't have enough to bring it home.

Current Odds (8-1)

#4 - Union Rags : Most people thought we would have another undefeated one on our hands last year, but Hansen dispelled that chance to head out the tough as nails Union Rags in the BC Juvenile on this same track. Very consistent Beyers, but he will need to improve 5 - 10 points or more to get this one. I think Matz knows what he's doing, this colt by Dixie Union is primed third off the layoff, and I think he must be used on every ticket. He also has the ability to adapt his running style if there is weather issues as most are assuming. Love his chances, I would like to see 7-1+, we'll see

Current Odds (5-1)

#5 - Dullahan : I am not sure the exact connections to Minnesota with this horse, but people have been chirping about it for a while now. He will be running 3rd off the layoff after taking the Bluegrass from Hansen. He ran in the BC Juvenile as well and rallied late after a tough start. 0 for 3 on the surface is a big negative. Honestly looks like a better turf runner and I am not feeling it, but he has trended upward in everyone of his starts since the 2nd start of his career on the Brisnet figs (75-77-80-94-96-98-102) Where does that put him? I don't have a strong opinion

Current Odds (9-1)

#6 - Bodemeister : Triple Crown threat, eh? Not in my Minnesota mind ya know... I have a big anti-west coast bias when I bet the Derby and it has worked out for me most of the time. The only exception was Lookin' At Lucky. Loved the horse but lost a pretty penny and made up for it two weeks later. That burst of speed that Bodemeister showed in the Arkansas Derby was as impressive as I have ever seen in any Derby prep.... My problem is who did he beat. Secret Circle, okay I guess. Sabercat, he wasn't at full-strength in that start. I think he will be regressing at the top of the lane, not surging in Kentucky. If he's on the ticket, I am not cashing

Current Odds (8-1)

#7 Rousing Sermon : Mike Smith guiding him wide like Smith usually tends to do, may have cost the horse a win in the Louisiana Derby. Impressive closer likes to pick up the pieces when a race is falling apart, and the added distance could benefit this one. I just haven't seen any improvement over the Spring and that's a cause for concern. In addition, Smith is gone to Bodemesiter and Talamo didn't stay in town to ride him Saturday. Talamo was at CD Friday but flew home to Cali. Rousing Sermon is on none of my tickets

Current Odds (31-1)

#8 - Creative Cause : I think it's interesting how much respect California racing gets when it comes to the Kentucky Derby. So many times, the horses just haven't run well. I think a lot of that had to do with the poly courses in Southern California. With dirt at Santa Anita, some horses should be given more respect. Creative Cause has gotten two turns, has been consistent, and has run with Union Rags and Hansen within a length.... He has a win over Bodemeister, He has been game at Churchill, and he is never finished more than a length beaten 3rd. He has the fastest dirt speed according to Brisnet and he could be super intriguing if he goes off at a price.

Current Odds (12-1)

#9 - Trinniberg : Gate to wire in the Bayshore and Swale and 2nd place finishes in the Hopeful and Nashua in New York propelled Trinniberg into the Derby. Willie Martinez will get a surprise Derby mount, and this front runner will more than likely be the one on the lead over the first 6-8 furlongs, problem is he will be last by the quarter pole. Lone start at CD in the BC Juvenile Sprint, didn't go well at all... Never gone more than 7 furlongs. Should be 99-1+

Current Odds (40-1)

#10 - Daddy Nose Best : This colt by Scatdaddy took the Sunland Derby by 3/4 of a length and he is trending in the right direction. Steve Asmussen has this one primed to move forward third off the layoff. A lot of people think he could run a big one, just like the Bird did a few years back. I am just not seeing it tomorrow like some of the other wonks.

Current Odds (13-1)

#11 - Alpha : Throughout early Spring, Alpha was my choice to win the Derby as he came back as a three year-old with a vengeance at Aqeduct.... There are a couple big problems. The lone start at CD in the Juvenile. He was super on the inner-dirt, but the lightily raced colt by Bernardini will need to improve off getting beat a neck by the undefeated Gemologist... He could be in the mix if he decides run just like the bullet on the 28th, but it's unlikely... I like him if the track is a large speed bias

Current Odds (21-1)

#12 - Prospective : The Canadian Connections would have to bring in a "calcutta clipper" to take a little bit of Denny Green's steam from the late 90s.... He likes to engage the leaders earlier than most do in races. I don't know if that's just a Woodbine tactic or if that's his running style. I wouldn't be surprised if he's passing horses at the end. but I would be surprised if they are in first, second, and third.

Current Odds (60-1)

#13 - Went the Day Well : He is the one horse in the race I know absolutely nothing about. I have never seen him race and I have heard he has nowhere near the goods of Animal Kingdom; The connections are identical to that of last year's winning horse. He can get the distance but it's going to extremely, extremely tough to come close. Honestly, it would be an accomplishment for this horse if it finishes in the top 8.

Current Odds (27-1)

#14 - Hansen : It isn't everyday you find a grey colt as talented as this one has proven to be. At two years old, I think Hansen shocked himself by beating Union Rags in the Juvenile. He has never finished worse than second. He got caught in the Bluegrass but let's remember that poly-losses can be forgiven to certain extent, so it's how you evaluate his effort. I think he looked game and ready to handle the Derby pressure. His only other 2nd came on an off track off a layoff. Dangerous whether or not there is a bias.

Current Odds (9-1)

#15 - Gemologist : Undefeated horses accomplished the feat of winning the Derby three times last decade... Pletcher shook the Derby jinx a when Super Saver made his day and it looks like Gemologist is another game colt who could fare well tomorrow. The lightly raced horse won the Wood by a neck, when pressured by Alpha he re-broke and won a full neck. It was interesting to see how easily he handled a challenger. My issue with him is other than Alpha who has he beat. His jockey also took a tough spill on the turf course Friday and looked dazed. Castellano finished his mounts but failed to win. I am passing on Gemologist because I don't think he is the best speed horse and I think there might be too much speed in here.

Current Odds (8-1)

#16 - El Padrino : Now, El Padrino put up the highest Brisnet speed figure of 111 in his three year-old debut on an off-track. If he gets the same conditions he could be dangerous on Saturday. I am definitely using him for a couple reasons. First, I think he is the better of Pletcher's horses. I think his running style was ideal comparing it to what happened at the track Friday when it was sealed after weather delay's. He can get the distance if he is on the top of his game. I think he is even with the lackluster work pattern.

Current Odds (30-1)

[b]#17 - Done Talking : I think when it comes to this horse there is nothing to be said just like with his name. He would need an insane pace and a career effort. Passing with conviction.

Current Odds (32-1)

#18 - Sabercat : Most people would think that the #18 post would hurt a horse like Sabercat, I don't. I think he will benefit from being outside because of his running style. He is going to lay back and more than likely sit well off the grueling pace up front. Despite his poor efforts in his past two starts, his THOROGRAPH NUMBERS were trending the right way 9 1/4 - 4 - ?? I personally feel Nakatani has found his game and is riding better than just about anyone. Who knows maybe he is on HGH? That's all horse racing needs. Reason I bring it up is a story I read online about his aggresive attitude and sudden rise to the top again. I don't care for tomorrow. I am betting Sabercat because I know how Bluegrass Cat and Storm Cat need someone to make up for their failures in this race. I think the 3rd start off the layoff is going to be a whopper and he could throw up a negative number, maybe a negative "sheets" number too.

Current Odds (36-1)

#19 - I'll Have Another : He is a horse that I just can't get on with the connections and this jockey. He does will with Early Pace type horses and he has proven he can't beat some quality in California, but really how good is the crop out there. I don't know for sure, but I am not using this horse partly because of post and running style. but also because of the inexperienced jock.

Current Odds (15-1)

#20 - Liaison : Bob Baffert sneaks in another one on the far outide. Can he pull a Big Brown? The trainer and the clockers at the track say this horse has found his grove over the CD surface. He was the one to beat in the barn heading into the Road to Kentucky, but he was overtaken by the amazing runs Bodemeister has been putting together. I wouldn't be surprised at all if this one finishes the better of the two Baffert entries. He is very close to being used in my exotics. His three year old season has been filled with setbacks, problems during races, and just not being able to add it all up

Current Odds (58-1)



THE PICKS

Tier 1 -
#18 - Sabercat
#16 - El Padrino
#8 - Creative Cause
#4 - Union Rags

Tier 2 -
#14 - Hansen
#11 - Alpha
#1 - Daddy Long Legs
#20 - Liaison