Derby Trail Forums

Go Back   Derby Trail Forums > Stakes Archive
Register FAQ Members List Calendar Today's Posts

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 05-25-2012, 01:44 PM
Kasept's Avatar
Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Greenwich, NY
Posts: 43,295
Default 5/28 (BEL): Metropolitan, Phipps, Acorn (G1's), Sands Point (G2)

7th (4:06) Sands Point S. (G2)

1 1/16 Miles (Inner turf) | Fillies | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $200,000

1 Better Lucky Castro E 117 L
2 Modulate Alvarado J 117 Blk-On L
3 Somali Lemonade Velazquez J R 121 L
4 Dreaming of Cara Garcia Alan 117 L
5 Regalo Mia Castellano J J 117 L
6 Preach Tome Daddy Leparoux J R 117 L
7 Zultanite Dominguez R A 117 L
8 Firehouse Red Napravnik R 117 L



8th (4:40) Ogden Phipps H. (G1)

1 1/16 Miles | Fillies and Mares | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $400,000

1 Cash for Clunkers Garcia Alan 114 L
2 Awesome Maria Velazquez J R 124 L
3 She's All In Quinonez L S 115 L
4 It's Tricky Castro E 122 L
5 Juanita Dominguez R A 119 L



9th (5:14) TVG Acorn S. (G1)

1 Mile | Fillies | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $300,000

1 Contested Castellano J J 121 L
2 Hard Mystery Castro E 121 L
3 On Fire Baby Johnson J M 121 L
4 Zo Impressive Maragh R 121 L
5 Sacristy Napravnik R 121 L
6 Aubby K Prado E S 121 L



10th (5:47) Metropolitan H. (G1)

1 Mile | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $750,000

1 To Honor and Serve Lezcano J 120 L
2 Shackleford Velazquez J R 119 L
3 Caleb's Posse Maragh R 121 L
4 Saginaw Cohen D 115 L
5 Caixa Eletronica Castellano J J 117 L
6 Jackson Bend Nakatani C S 121 L
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 05-25-2012, 01:55 PM
Calzone Lord's Avatar
Calzone Lord Calzone Lord is offline
Super Moderator
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 4,552
Default

Grade 1 handicaps for older males and females...and they're only getting fields of five and six.

There once was a time when horses ran more frequently with less rest -- and handicaps were actual handicaps with big weight discrepancies.

However, despite the small fields, they at least still get the biggest names and good match-ups.

Just not as attractive as betting races if you could get five more runners and have the highweight at 127lbs instead of 121lbs for a race like the Met.
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 05-25-2012, 02:33 PM
cmorioles's Avatar
cmorioles cmorioles is offline
Santa Anita
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 3,169
Default

Just another case where marginal contenders won't run because they can run for plenty of slots swelled purses elsewhere. Slots have killed competition. It is now avoided at all costs with the exception of the Triple Crown and the Breeder's Cup.
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 05-25-2012, 02:43 PM
Calzone Lord's Avatar
Calzone Lord Calzone Lord is offline
Super Moderator
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 4,552
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by cmorioles View Post
Just another case where marginal contenders won't run because they can run for plenty of slots swelled purses elsewhere. Slots have killed competition. It is now avoided at all costs with the exception of the Triple Crown and the Breeder's Cup.
That too.

I guess that's also a contributing factor why they can no longer pack on 128lbs to the highweight and a lot of times in the past the marginal contender wins.
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 05-25-2012, 02:44 PM
parsixfarms parsixfarms is offline
Churchill Downs
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Saratoga Springs
Posts: 1,779
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Calzone Lord View Post
Just not as attractive as betting races if you could get five more runners and have the highweight at 127lbs instead of 121lbs for a race like the Met.
This is particularly problematic, as the spread in the weights has become squeezed on both ends. Trainers don't want their good horses carrying weight, and with the bottom pushed up due to concerns about jockey weight issues, even the least accomplished horses are carrying about 114.

I've have thought for a couple of years that, if we want real handicap racing, then handicap the race with the theoretical highweight at 126 (or more). If that horse runs, no adjustment would be needed. If, however, that horse passed the race, then the weights would be adjusted upward so that the actual starting highweight would carry 126.
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 05-25-2012, 03:00 PM
Calzone Lord's Avatar
Calzone Lord Calzone Lord is offline
Super Moderator
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 4,552
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by parsixfarms View Post
This is particularly problematic, as the spread in the weights has become squeezed on both ends. Trainers don't want their good horses carrying weight, and with the bottom pushed up due to concerns about jockey weight issues, even the least accomplished horses are carrying about 114.

I've have thought for a couple of years that, if we want real handicap racing, then handicap the race with the theoretical highweight at 126 (or more). If that horse runs, no adjustment would be needed. If, however, that horse passed the race, then the weights would be adjusted upward so that the actual starting highweight would carry 126.
Yeah. Look at how they handled weights in the mid 1930's compared to today.

The 1937 Santa Anita Handicap had a field of 18 -- and Seabiscuit (130lbs) got beat by a 3-year-old in March who carried just 100lbs.

In Seabiscuit's race before he met War Admiral in the match race -- he carried 126lbs and some 3yo filly carrying 102lbs broke a track record and beat him handily.

Discovery was forced to give 20 and 30 lbs to top older horses when he was tearing it up at age 4.

Even in the 70's, 80's, and sometimes the 90's the scale looks very wide compared to today. Zenyatta was routinely giving just a few pounds away to unaccomplished females in a lot of her races. The scale has become more and more squeezed at both ends for sure.
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 05-25-2012, 03:25 PM
ateamstupid's Avatar
ateamstupid ateamstupid is offline
Super Mod.. and Super Fly
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Brooklyn, NY
Posts: 13,036
Default

I like the addition of the Phipps/Acorn to Met Mile day, short fields notwithstanding.
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 05-25-2012, 04:07 PM
pba1817 pba1817 is offline
Hawthorne
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 540
Default

Too many tracks, too many places allowing marginal horses to cherry pick purses... No reason for a marginal horse to ever take a shot at big names when they can crush inferior competition.
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 05-26-2012, 07:00 PM
clambeau's Avatar
clambeau clambeau is offline
Turf Paradise
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 226
Default Small Fields in Met Mile & Other Stakes

Is the Belmont undercard the culprit for the ridiculously small fields on the undercard stakes card on Met Mile Day ? Do they all want to run on the Belmont undercard, just to say....what?

5-6 horse fields for 3 GI's ? Someone help me out here
__________________
Everything happens at the right time or it doesn't happen at all...
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 05-26-2012, 10:52 PM
Linny's Avatar
Linny Linny is offline
Oaklawn
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: NY
Posts: 2,104
Default

There are really no stakes on the Belmont card that are competing with this weekend's races. The Met Mile, Acorn, Phipps and Sands Point are for divisions that won't be represented in stakes on June 9 at Belmont.
__________________
RIP Monroe.
Reply With Quote
  #11  
Old 05-28-2012, 12:22 AM
RockHardTen1985 RockHardTen1985 is offline
Flemington
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 11,208
Default

Better Lucky in the Sands Point. Don't feel great about it though.
Its Tricky, Cash for Clunkers in the Phipps.
Zo Impressive and Contested in the Acorn.
THAS and a little Shack in the Met.
Likely going to play a 2/2/2 with the horses mentioned above. Play that for 10$. Cool 80$. Then press Zo Impressive a bit more, I have not liked a horse as much as I like her tomorrow in a while.
Reply With Quote
  #12  
Old 05-28-2012, 01:24 AM
goodcopy's Avatar
goodcopy goodcopy is offline
Ellis Park
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: San Diego
Posts: 464
Unhappy Is This Hollywood Park?

These fields look a lot like the west coast!
Just another "problem"we face in this "Sport Of Kings"
Reply With Quote
  #13  
Old 05-28-2012, 03:42 AM
RockHardTen1985 RockHardTen1985 is offline
Flemington
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 11,208
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by goodcopy View Post
These fields look a lot like the west coast!
Just another "problem"we face in this "Sport Of Kings"
Its a great card and its silly to complain. Ill take quality all day. I see money to be made, even with the small fields. Zo Impressive at 5-1, Cash for Clunkers at 12-1 and THAS and Shack being in the 5-2 up to 5-1 range because of the overbet Calebs Posse.
Reply With Quote
  #14  
Old 05-28-2012, 09:25 AM
miraja2's Avatar
miraja2 miraja2 is offline
Arlington Park
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Chicago
Posts: 4,157
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by goodcopy View Post
These fields look a lot like the west coast!
Just another "problem"we face in this "Sport Of Kings"
Saginaw has won five races in a row. His last two races were stakes victories at Belmont Park. His last race was a particularly impressive performance. He is trained by a high % trainer. The 8f distance of the Met is probably the gelding's best distance.

I mention all of this about Saginaw because he is likely to be no better than the FIFTH choice in the wagering of the Met Mile. That's because the top four horses are so talented and accomplished. I think that's a fairly clear sign that its a pretty damn good race. Not to mention the fact that the horse likely to be the longest shot in the field is a Pletcher/Castellano coming off a 3-length win in a G2.

This sport has quite a few "problems." The field for this year's Met Mile certainly isn't one of them.
Reply With Quote
  #15  
Old 05-28-2012, 04:49 PM
RockHardTen1985 RockHardTen1985 is offline
Flemington
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 11,208
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985 View Post
Better Lucky in the Sands Point. Don't feel great about it though.
Its Tricky, Cash for Clunkers in the Phipps.
Zo Impressive and Contested in the Acorn.
THAS and a little Shack in the Met.
Likely going to play a 2/2/2 with the horses mentioned above. Play that for 10$. Cool 80$. Then press Zo Impressive a bit more, I have not liked a horse as much as I like her tomorrow in a while.
At this point I wish I covered a few of the 4 super logical horses I have left off the upcoming 2 Grade 1's. Pretty solid start either way though.
Reply With Quote
  #16  
Old 05-28-2012, 05:55 PM
King Glorious's Avatar
King Glorious King Glorious is offline
Atlantic City Race Course
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Beaumont, CA
Posts: 4,611
Default

You have to love a horse like Shackleford. All heart. Game win in holding off Caleb's Posse by a short nose. Caleb's Posse is the leader for hard luck horse of the year so far but a good effort still. Jackson Bend disappointed me. I thought To Honor and Serve had no excuse and just couldn't run with the top two. Nice race.
__________________
The real horses of the year (1986-2020)
Manila, Java Gold, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Go for Wand, In Excess, Paseana, Kotashaan, Holy Bull, Cigar, Alphabet Soup, Formal Gold, Skip Away, Artax, Tiznow, Point Given, Azeri, Candy Ride, Smarty Jones, Ghostzapper, Invasor, Curlin, Zenyatta, Zenyatta, Goldikova, Havre de Grace, Wise Dan, Wise Dan, California Chrome, American Pharoah, Arrogate, Gun Runner, Accelerate, Maximum Security, Gamine
Reply With Quote
  #17  
Old 05-28-2012, 05:58 PM
Calzone Lord's Avatar
Calzone Lord Calzone Lord is offline
Super Moderator
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 4,552
Default

It was basically a reverse of the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile from last year.

Caleb's Posse got a big setup in the BC Dirt Mile and won big with Shackleford 2nd.

This time, Shackleford got away with a softer pace and not a lot of pressure in a smaller field over a truer more inside friendly racing surface -- and it was just enough to reverse the outcome from the Dirt Mile.
Reply With Quote
  #18  
Old 05-28-2012, 09:31 AM
miraja2's Avatar
miraja2 miraja2 is offline
Arlington Park
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Chicago
Posts: 4,157
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by clambeau View Post
5-6 horse fields for 3 GI's ? Someone help me out here
Again, in the case of the Met Mile, are there a lot of other horses out there who you think should be challenging Shackleford, Jackson Bend, To Honor and Serve, and Caleb's Posse at 8f?
I can't think of many.

This is a fantastic race.
Reply With Quote
  #19  
Old 05-28-2012, 10:13 AM
declansharbor's Avatar
declansharbor declansharbor is offline
Hialeah Park
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Exit 30
Posts: 6,357
Default

I like Self Imposed Ban in the Ogden Phipps and MyWordDontMeanShit in the Met Mile for $1,000 straight.
Reply With Quote
  #20  
Old 05-28-2012, 10:35 AM
3kings's Avatar
3kings 3kings is offline
Oriental Park
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 3,495
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by declansharbor View Post
I like Self Imposed Ban in the Ogden Phipps and MyWordDontMeanShit in the Met Mile for $1,000 straight.
I laughed.

But it acually helped. It gave me the confidence to single Caleb's Posse at least on a back-up ticket.
Reply With Quote
Reply



Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 02:06 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.