Del Mar 5 of 6 pays $145,187.40

[Calzone Lord]

A $129.40 winner absolutely dominated the last race at Del Mar and won by 4+ lengths for D Vergera and Ruben Gomez.

If you got just 5 out of 6 in the P6 you got more than 145K.

Back-to-back carryover after a $96 winner and an $84 winner won in yesterdays P6 sequence at Del Mar. 5 out of 6 only paid 10K yesterday despite the two massive longshots winning.

[South Beach Luv]

Big Man In Town was tough to come up with even in the P4 that paid:

$0.50 Pick 4 (2/8/3/5) Paid $58,466.75 (4OF4)

Which is for me the highest I've seen a $0.50 P4 pay.

Would have had to gone ALL in that last leg which was a 10 horse field to come up with him. Beaten 100.5 lengths in his 7 starts, or 14.35 lengths a race on average. Last 5 races at the very same level of MC20k

Trainer is now 1/61 on the year, and Daniel Vergara got his first win of the meet. Rough.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by South Beach Luv

Would have had to gone ALL in that last leg which was a 10 horse field to come up with him. Beaten 100.5 lengths in his 7 starts, or 14.35 lengths a race on average. Last 5 races at the very same level of MC20k

Trainer is now 1/61 on the year, and Daniel Vergara got his first win of the meet. Rough.

Yep. Here's the form of the horse who dominated the last race of the day at Del Mar and won it by 4+ lengths and paid $130 to win.





Looks like a complete bum on paper -- he was 7th and 10th at this same class level in his last two starts. His jockey is 0-for-28 at the meet and his trainer is 0-for-60 on the year.

He had one angle going for him -- and it wasn't as clearly appearant on paper as it was on CJ's figures.

He had been repeatedly used up in sprint races battling for the lead and stopping to a walk. Never in his life had he made an early lead before.



In yesterdays race -- he had the fields best early pace figure -- and no one was going to pressure him because any smart jockey just simply lets horses with forms like that go early on.

Finding himself on the lead for the first time ever, and with no early pressure to boot, he simply buried them.

Obviously, I wouldn't bet a horse like that ever. However, as someone who is a long-time veteran of betting exchanges ... I know that you NEVER ever mess around with betting against horses like that.

It's tempting for people to see how hopeless they look on paper and say 'why don't I make an easy $30 here and just give the 85/1 odds against that lousy 60/1 shot'

When a horse has never made a lead before -- is almost a lock to make a loose lead, I'm not interested in laying any price against them. That's a lesson I learned a long, long time ago in the days when the EhorseX exchange had a good deal of liquidity.

[Stickhorse]

Great anatomy of a long shot.

The only other positive was Benchmark. He is a very good DMR polytrack sire. His offspring have won 29 of 201 starts.

"He had one angle going for him -- and it wasn't as clearly appearant on paper as it was on CJ's figures. "

CJ ?

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Stickhorse

Great anatomy of a long shot.

The only other positive was Benchmark. He is a very good DMR polytrack sire. His offspring have won 29 of 201 starts.

"He had one angle going for him -- and it wasn't as clearly appearant on paper as it was on CJ's figures. "

CJ ?

CJ posts here as CMorioles. His website is www.Pacefigures.com

[Alabama Stakes]

Originally Posted by Stickhorse

Great anatomy of a long shot.

The only other positive was Benchmark. He is a very good DMR polytrack sire. His offspring have won 29 of 201 starts.

"He had one angle going for him -- and it wasn't as clearly appearant on paper as it was on CJ's figures. "

CJ ?

what about that he improved 20 lengths from his previous start off the lay. closer at other calls too.

[South Beach Luv]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

In yesterdays race -- he had the fields best early pace figure -- and no one was going to pressure him because any smart jockey just simply lets horses with forms like that go early on.

Good stuff as always.

I don't know how to read those figures though. I use Brisnet PPs and thought the 6 would make the lead and hopefully run the race the winner ran.

Victor Espinoza (rider of the 6) also rode the 1 in the race before that, and I thought he should have made the lead there too but didn't.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by South Beach Luv

Good stuff as always.

I don't know how to read those figures though. I use Brisnet PPs and thought the 6 would make the lead and hopefully run the race the winner ran.

Victor Espinoza (rider of the 6) also rode the 1 in the race before that, and I thought he should have made the lead there too but didn't.

Victor Espinoza's horse (#6) had the second fastest early pace fig in the race. He's too smart of a jockey to press that longshot eventual winner. The thing most good riders will do -- and he did -- was to just ignore the 60/1 shot who is a little quicker and let it have an easy lead all to itself. The assumption being that the horse will stop no matter how easy a lead it gets.

[Indian Charlie]

Actually, his last start, his only one at DMR, was not nearly as atrocious as his previous few starts.

[Travis Stone]

I didn't look at this race at all, but I once did a longshot study over the course of two months one summer. By far the biggest "angle" when it came to big prices winning was third-off the layoff with an improved figure in the second race back, just like this horse.

[geeker2]

Originally Posted by South Beach Luv

Good stuff as always.

I don't know how to read those figures though. I use Brisnet PPs and thought the 6 would make the lead and hopefully run the race the winner ran.

Victor Espinoza (rider of the 6) also rode the 1 in the race before that, and I thought he should have made the lead there too but didn't.

Yea and then got him buried on the rail.

[The Bart]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Yep. Here's the form of the horse who dominated the last race of the day at Del Mar and won it by 4+ lengths and paid $130 to win.





Looks like a complete bum on paper -- he was 7th and 10th at this same class level in his last two starts. His jockey is 0-for-28 at the meet and his trainer is 0-for-60 on the year.

He had one angle going for him -- and it wasn't as clearly appearant on paper as it was on CJ's figures.

He had been repeatedly used up in sprint races battling for the lead and stopping to a walk. Never in his life had he made an early lead before.



In yesterdays race -- he had the fields best early pace figure -- and no one was going to pressure him because any smart jockey just simply lets horses with forms like that go early on.

Finding himself on the lead for the first time ever, and with no early pressure to boot, he simply buried them.

Obviously, I wouldn't bet a horse like that ever. However, as someone who is a long-time veteran of betting exchanges ... I know that you NEVER ever mess around with betting against horses like that.

It's tempting for people to see how hopeless they look on paper and say 'why don't I make an easy $30 here and just give the 85/1 odds against that lousy 60/1 shot'

When a horse has never made a lead before -- is almost a lock to make a loose lead, I'm not interested in laying any price against them. That's a lesson I learned a long, long time ago in the days when the EhorseX exchange had a good deal of liquidity.

This is not a REDBOARD since I didn't play the race, but if I had seen the PP, I would have had a small wps bet on this horse.

One of my favorite angles is the "speed and fade" angle, which is a horse running 6 furlongs or less, shows speed, and fades 5 lengths or less from the first call to the finish, and then gets stretched out to a mile or longer the next race.

This horse showed speed and faded 5 lengths from the first call to the finish,
then they stretched him out to a mile and he wins! This angle doesn't always play out every time, but, if you do a study on this angle, I think you'll see that you can hit some juicy overlays like this one here!

[richard]

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