9/16: Belmont Park ($164k C/O); Woodbine (7th-11th)

[Kasept]

BELMONT PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


5th: MSW, 2yo-F, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

$164k double carryover starts here..

Gustavia appears tough to deny in 2nd start for C. Brown exiting key race placement behind Kitten's Dumplings (4-way blanket 4th in Summer S. at WO Saturday) and ahead of Oscar Party (won KY Downs Juvenile yesterday). Motion & Team Valor's Three Hearts also a next out winner from Gustavia's debut, earning a diploma at LRL yesterday..

Most Likely: #4 Gustavia 2-1 5th
Next Best: #3 High N Far 6-1 9th
Exotics Use: #5 Corporate Culture 5-1 3rd
Super Add: #11 Caroline Thomas 12-1 2nd


6th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (G/S, P3, DD)

Hard to be thrilled embracing Yes It's Pink and Jennys Creek as your P6 survivor players, but next set of logicals & upset candidates (Flirtatious Spring, Fujiana, The Giant's Beauty & Clever Spirit) are all suspect in their own ways. Would think Al Fried's The Giant's Beauty (full to Giant Moon) can put it all together getting on lawn and with Bruce Brown off sharply downstate, but "0/40 1st Turf" a bit alarming..

Most Likely: #1 Jennys Creek 4-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Yes It's Pink 9-5 2nd
Best Value: #10 The Giant's Beauty 10-1 11th
Exotics Use: #11 Clever Spirit 7-2 WON ($6.90)


7th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 7f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Note that Kibosh, vanquisher of Yes It's Pink & Jennys Creek at Spa, shows up here joining Thescreenisred as 'last out' winners. Quiet Ending the clear filly to beat..

Most Likely: #2 Quiet Ending 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #5 Scat's Lassie 10-1 9th
Next Best: #10 Kibosh 4-1 WON ($14.60)
Exotics Use: #6 Akira 6-1 11th


8th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #10 War Hoot 5-2 WON ($4.90)
Best Value: #1 Punster 12-1 7th
Next Best: #3 Deciphering Dreams 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Red Jack 8-1 6th


9th: OC/N2X, 3+, 1m-T (DD)

Feels like there's too many pace-prompting stretchouts here for the scenario not to set someone up from off or just off. After the obvious players, Percussion (30-1) tries turf and does have a sib in Slew by Slew who was rock solid turf routing on lawn..

Most Likely: #4 Voodoo Storm 7-2 4th
Next Best: #1 Boots Ahead 3-1 WON ($9.10)
Exotics Use: #2 Dominant Jeannes 6-1 3rd
Best Value: #5 Percussion 30-1 6th


10th: MDN CLM, 3+, 8.5f-IT

Best Value: #2 Promised Destiny 8-1 6th
Next Best: #9 Zajal 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #10 Wagon Train 4-1 5th
Super Add: #3 Northern Tripp 15-1 9th


<$150 P6 Play:

5: 4
6: 1-4
7: 2-5
8: 1-3-10
9: 1-4
10: 2-9-10

1x2x2x3x2x3 = 72 x $2 = $144


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 2-5
8: 1-3-6-10
9: 1-2-4-5
10: 2-3-9-10

2x4x4x4 = 128 x .50 = $64



WOODBINE


POST-SCRATCHES


5th: 58th Canadian (G2), F&M-3+, 9f-T (P3)

Not that scared of Kapitale and certainly don't want All Star Heart at 7-2..

Most Likely: #2 Laughing 3-1 8th
Best Value: #3 Stars to Shine 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #9 Kapitale 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Moment of Majesty 12-1 7th


7th: 42nd Ontario Derby (G3), 3yo, 9f (P3)

Colleen's Sailor gets Gomez and is a player at a price with return to good races over this surface..

Best Value: #5 Colleen's Sailor 15-1 5th
Next Best: #2 River Rush 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Stealcase 2-1 WON ($6.20)
Super Add: #4 Gung Ho 8-1 4th


8th: 7th Northern Dancer Turf D. (G1), 12f-T (P4, P3)

Maybe better than the Mile with what feels like 6 of the 8 possible for laurels. Forte Dei Marmi (8-1) and Scalo (2-1) start the discussion noting they exit the Sky Classic (1st & 3rd respectively) from which runner-up Stormy Lord won the incident-marred President's Cup Saturday at Philly. Wigmore Hall (6-1) is back to defend his '11 Northern Dancer utilizing the same path out of an Arlington Million chance that was quashed by Little Mike's theivery. Irish Mission (10-1) faces male elders here having distinguished herself in the Canadian Triple Crown with a Breeders win and Queens' Plate placement. She is a true staying filly and gets a featherweighted 109 if Stein can make it. Musketier (5-2) and Al Khali (3-1) are what they are and demand respect. Terrific group..

Best Value: #5 Forte Dei Marmi 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Wigmore Hall 6-1 WON ($9.40)
Exotics Use: #6 Musketier 5-2 6th
Super Add: #8 Irish Mission 10-1 5th


9th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 7f (P3)

Most Likely: #11 Galloping d'Amour 5-1 6th
Best Value: #8 Lemon Splash 10-1 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Acting Naughty 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #4 Mo Jo Queen 3-1 WON ($6.10)


10th: 7th Woodbine Mile (G1), 3+, 1m-T (DD)

Conversations have suggested that Wise Dan freaked on the off going in the Fourstardave and that he is possibly vulnerable here. Not much question that he's best over synthetics, but anything near his 'good' turf efforts looks passable at the least. Faces challenges in a real international force in Cityscape and the vastly impoved Big Band Sound. Dance and Dance and/or Riding the River could get cozy suck-along trips and find themselves in the right place late..

Most Likely: #3 Wise Dan 6-5 WON ($3.10)
Next Best: #7 Cityscape 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Big Band Sound 6-1 5th
Super Add: #2 Dance and Dance 12-1 6th


11th: ON-ALW/N2L, F&M-3+, 7f

Most Likely: #7 Memories Last Love 3-1 WON ($6.80)
Next Best: #5 Total Bliss 4-1
Exotics Use: #9 Ashighastheheavens 8-1 4th
Super Add: #1 Miss Scarlett Road 5-2 3rd


P4 Play:

Woodbine offers .20 P4's, P3's & Supers, but note that not every ADW utilizes it..

8: 3-4-5-6-7-8
9: 4-7-8-11
10: 3-5-7
11: 5-7

6x4x3x2 = 144 x .20 = $28.80 ($57.60 for .40)

$0.20 Pick 4 (7/1,3,4,9/3/7) Paid $38.06 ($76.12 for .40)


Good luck!
Steve

[Kasept]

BEL SCR/CHG'S

[Kasept]

WO SCR/CHG'S

Now complete..

[ADJMK]

Woodbine changes

1 2 Royal Slam Scratched
1 4 Aunt Els Overweight: 2
1 5 Tordera Overweight: 2
1 6 Poster Lady Overweight: 1

1 7 Reign Suzanne Overweight: 3
4 Race Changes: PICK 4 GUARANTEED POOL: $100,000.00
5 1 Moment of Majesty Overweight: 2
6 7 Will She Crow Scratched
7 1 Patrioticandproud Scratched
7 6 Prospective Scratched
7 7 Stealcase Overweight: 1
8 Race Changes: PICK 4 GUARANTEED POOL: $200,000.00
8 8 Irish Mission Overweight: 1
9 1 Mekong Delta Scratched
9 3 Pulpation Scratched
9 9 Forester's Diva Scratched
10 8 Hollinger Overweight: 1