1/12: Gulfstream (6th-11th); Santa Anita ($48k C/O)

[Kasept]

GULFSTREAM PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


6th: MSW, 3yo, 8.5f-T/12' (P6, P3, DD)

In typical GP morning line fashion, Middleburg will end up around 4-1. Everyone seems to have landed on the Firestone/Clements half to Winchester. Note that the fence is at 12' for this, a positioning that aides inside horses tremendously..

Most Likely: #2 Middleburg 10-1 7th
Best Value: #1 Comancheria 20-1 10th
Next Best: #11 Sweet Mike 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #13 All Alex 3-1 4th


7th: CLM, 3yo, 5.5f (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Move Over 9-5 5th
Next Best: #6 Starship Titan 4-1 WON ($7.20)
Best Value: #8 Trip N Run 8-1 4th
Exotics Use: #9 My Daddy's Dollars 6-1 6th


8th: OC/N1X, 4+, 1m-T/84' (P4, P3, DD)

Which Market is favored from the 12 hole and though I suppose he can win, a short number is wholly unappealling with a glut of other options available. Exothermic another 10-1 line that won't hold up..

Most Likely: #3 Exclusive Strike 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Exothermic 10-1 9th
Best Value: #9 Minnie Punt 15-1 7th
Exotics Use: #2 Forward March 6-1 WON ($18.20)

.50 TRI: 3-5 with 2-3-5-9 with 2-3-5-9-12 (2x3x4 = 24 x .50 = $12)


9th: MSW, 3yo-F, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Bliss 2-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Biorhythm 3-1 7th
Best Value: #2 Dixie Hot Shot 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Calistoga 4-1 WON ($11.00)


10th: 58th Fort Lauderdale (G2), 4+, 8.5f-T/12' (DD)

Terrific assembly. Yes Nikki's Sandcastle (5-1) is facing best cast yet, but he's as good as he'll ever be and already has shown a liking for this strip. Can adjust to any pace and saves all the ground doing so. Sticking with the hot hand. And look, Sky Blazer is the magic 10-1 ML that will be half that price by post time!

Most Likely: #2 Nikki's Sandcastle 5-1 4th
Best Value: #7 Sky Blazer 10-1 8th
Next Best: #8 Big Blue Kitten 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Vertiformer 12-1 7th


11th: MDN CLM, 3yo, 8.5f-T/84' (Super Hi-5)

Non-descript bunch but can't help noting that Livingston Swagger hails from Alydar (!) mare Aly Sweet who was 19yo when she dropped this chestnut for the Palmers. While it's rare to see too many Alydar mares in the PP's, what's worth relating is that Aly Sweet herself was the first product out of Mel Stute's remarkable 1987 BC Sprint heroine Very Subtle!

Most Likely: #1 Backseat Memories 4-1 WON ($9.80)
Next Best: #8 Demographic Trend 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 Ride l'Ultimo 15-1 12th
Exotics Use: #3 Fluent 6-1 6th


<$50 P5 Play:

7: 2-6
8: 3-5
9: 8
10: 1-2-5-6-7-8
11: 1-3-4-8

2x2x1x6x4 = 96 x .50 = $48


<$75 P4 Play:

8: 2-3-5-9-10-12
9: 8
10: 1-2-5-6-7-8
11: 1-3-4-8

6x1x6x4 = 144 x .50 = $72



SANTA ANITA PARK


PRE-SCRATCHES


1st: MSW, 3yo-F, 7f (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Tizmetizyou 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #7 Iconic Spirit 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #5 Now Hope 10-1 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Mezzanote 9-2 6th


2nd: MDN CLM, 3yo-F, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 SCR
Next Best: #5 Run Captive Run 5-2 WON ($4.60)
Best Value: #6 My Devilish Diva 20-1 6th
Exotics Use: #1 Firendesire 4-1 3rd


3rd: OC/N2X, 4+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

No shortage of front-end intended parties here..

Most Likely: #4 Cyclometer 7-2 6th
Best Value: #2 Chapman's Peak 6-1 7th
Next Best: #7 Midnight Transfer 2-1 WON ($4.60)
Exotics Use: #5 Castletown 5-2 3rd


4th: CLM, 4+, 6.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

$48k P6 C/O starts here..

Very tricky start to the P6 with a downhill event that sees some of the top choices coming in with shaky form. Anxious to see if #12 (AE) Cayambe (7-2) gets into the field because the 9yo veteran is on that fills the bill as a lean..

Most Likely: #12 (AE) SCR
Best Value: #1 Batti Man 8-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Cherokee Heaven 9-2 10th
Exotics Use: #5 Red Defense 6-1 8th


5th: MDN CLM, 3yo-F, 5.5f (P3, DD)

2nd half of split event with R2 and the tougher looking of the pair with some good working firsters lining up..

Best Value: #5 Alissa G 8-1 5th
Next Best: #9 Miss Judged 9-2 7th
Exotics Use: #10 Avery's Arabesque 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #8 Mind Your Biznes 5-1 8th


<$75 P4/P5 Plays:

1: 2-5-6-7
2: 5-8/SCR
3: 2-4-7
4: 1-6-12/SCR (1-5-6 if 12 not in)
5: 5-9 (8-10)

P5: 4x2x3x3x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
P4: 2x3x3x4 = $72 ($36 for .50)


6th: MSW, 3yo, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Fun group of boys with plenty of attractive pedigrees going the flat lawn mile. How about the Lure mare mentioned to Doug O'Neill that dropped his Persuasive Paul? I noted the Alydar mare at Gulfstream, well there's an Affirmed mare involved here with Checkerspot as the dam of 30-1 Affirmed Arch who looks like a down the road the type. Lord of Ballandrae finally draws in to a race and as a half to ill-fated Sailor's Cap, has a license to be A-OK in this setting..

Best Value: #2 Dry Gulcher 8-1 9th
Next Best: #10 Wine List 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Persuasive Paul 4-1 WON ($10.40)
Super Add: #12 Lord of Ballandrae 6-1 11th


7th: 61st San Fernando (G2), 4yo, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Wow.. What a nicely matched group: Baffert's 4 against Shirreffs, Drysdale, Harty, O'Neill, Hollendorfer & Asmussen. Tribal Jewel got meet off to a bang for me and I'm hard-pressed to argue with him at what figures to be higher than the 6-1 ML. Will by-pass the 3 ML faves and swing for the fences here..

Best Value: #9 Tribal Jewel 6-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Guilt Trip 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Mile High Magic 8-1 9th
Super Add: #10 Tritap 10-1 2nd


8th: OC/N2X, 4+, 6.5f-T (DD)

Yikes! This set couldn't be tighter..

Best Value: #11 Cat Talk 8-1 WON ($14.60)
Next Best: #4 No Silent 4-1 6th
Exotics Use: #3 Gab Power 10-1 5th
Super Add: #7 Royal F J 7th


9th: CLM/N2L, 4+, 6.5f (Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #2 Nonrefundable 7-2 11th
Best Value: #7 Generations 8-1 7th
Next Best: #13 Key Reversal 9-2 9th
Exotics Use: #4 Et Tu Walker 5-1 4th


<$150 P6 Play:

4: 12 (1 if 12 not in)
5: 5-9
6: 2-8-10
7: 5-9
8: 3-4-11
9: 2-7

1x2x3x2x3x2 = 72 x $2 = $144


<$50 P4 Play:

6: 2-8-10
7: 5-9
8: 3-4-11
9: 2-4-6-7-13

3x2x3x5 = 90 x .50 = $45



Good luck!
Steve

[Kasept]

GP SCR/CHG'S