5/4: Churchill Downs (139th Kentucky Derby)

[Kasept]

Oaks Day came off a bit strangely Friday with little continuity or momentum sustained. Some horses that were underlaid on the ML ended up going off at good prices (Magic Union, Speedinthruthecity) while others that looked like values disappointed at overbet numbers (Strike Charmer, Joelito). When it looked like there was an inkling of a score -- a potentially healthy P3 after Authenticity & Kitten's Dumplings came through -- Fusaichiswonderful was collared in the final strides by So Many Ways.

The riding antics of Albarado and Borel in the Alysheba and the Oaks greatly impacted the outcomes later in the day, so all in all it was an entertaining but sideways afternoon. Given that the Friday card looked like the more furtive of the 2 day extravaganza, it will likely take some creativity to make money Saturday.

Hope everyone enjoyed ATR's 2 week run at Churchill. As always, it went by in a flash. Happy Derby.. Safe trips and best of luck to all!


CHURCHILL DOWNS


POST-SCRATCHES


CD SCR/CHG'S -- NOTE THAT RAIN WILL COME & TRACK CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE


1st: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Apropos 8-5 2nd
Best Value: #6 Honey Hues 6-1 6th
Next Best: #3 Glamour Puss 2-1 WON ($7.40)


2nd: OC/N1X, 3yo, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Gombey Dancer 7-2 4th
Next Best: #1 River Rocks 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Slan Abhile 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #6 Our Double Play 8-1 WON ($29.60)


3rd: OC/N3X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 The Pizza Man 3-1 6th
Best Value: #4 Under Control 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Old Time Hockey 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Screenplay 3-1 3rd


4th: MSW, 3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #12 Troubadour Tango 5-1 2nd
Best Value: #5 Bama Bound 6-1 9th
Next Best: #3 Saint X. 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #6 Esplendido 8-1 12th


5th: OC/N1X, 3yo, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Code West 7-5 2nd
Best Value: #5 Brazilian Court 10-1 6th
Next Best: #3 Perfect Title 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Bellarmine 6-1 WON ($25.20)


<$75 P4 Play:

2: 1-2-8
3: 1-4-5-6
4: 3-5-6-12
5: 8

3x4x4x1 = 48 ($24 for .50)


6th: 19th Twin Spires Turf Sprint (G3), 4+, 5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

$1,000,000 Guaranteed P6 starts here..

Not a great deal of speed. Southern Dude can wire..

Most Likely: #4 Ghost Is Clear 9-2 8th
Best Value: #1 Southern Dude 10-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Ikon Ike 3-1 7th
Super Add: #6 Chamberlain Bridge 4-1 2nd


7th: 27th Humana Distaff (G1), F&M-4+, 7f (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Aubby K 7-2 WON ($9.80)
Best Value: #3 Same Cross 8-1 9th
Next Best: #2 Rumor 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #4 Emma's Encore 8-1 7th


<$50 P4 Play:

4: 3-5-6-12
5: 8
6: 1-2-3-4-6-8
7: 2-3-4-6

4x1x6x4 = 96 x .50 = $48


8th: 28th Churchill Distaff Turf Mile (G2), F&M-4+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Lots of pace here..

Most Likely: #5 Hungary Island 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #7 Karlovy Vary 12-1 5th
Next Best: #8 LATE SCR (Marketing Mix)
Exotics Use: #3 Daisy Devine 3-1 3rd


9th: 79th Churchill Downs (G2), 4+, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 Delauney 2-1 WON ($5.80)
Next Best: #5 Unbridled's Note 5-1 8th
Best Value: #7 Politicallycorrect 15-1 6th
Exotics Use: #2 Hierro 10-1 5th


10th: 27th Woodford Reserve Turf Classic (G1), 4+, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Sure hope the questionable weather doesn't dash this superb matchup. Feeling like McGaughey planning for this and LoPresti calling an audible provides tiniest edge to Point of Entry..

Most Likely: #9 LATE SCR (Point of Entry)
Next Best: #8 Wise Dan 6-5 WON ($3.20)
Best Value: #3 Optimizer 20-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Jeranimo 8-1 7th


11th: 139th Kentucky Derby (G1), 3yo, 10f (P3, DD, Super Hi-5)

After two weeks talking about this Derby, there's not much else to be said. Top pair from Florida Derby and SA Derby winner are the three most accomplished horses here. Mylute and Java's War are the types that invade the exotics in this race..

Most Likely: #16 Orb 7-2 WON ($12.80)
Best Value: #12 Itsmyluckyday 15-1 15th
Next Best: #8 Goldencents 5-1 17th
Exotics Use: #6 Mylute 15-1 5th
Super/Hi-5: #19 Java's War 15-1 13th


<$50 P5 Play:

7: 2-3-6
8: 3-5-7-8/SCR
9: 9
10: 8-9/SCR
11: 6-8-12-16

3x3x1x2x4 = 72 x .50 = $36


<$75 P4 Play:

8: 3-5-7-8/SCR
9: 5-7-9
10: 8-9/SCR
11: 6-8-12-16

3x3x2x4 = 72 x .50 = $36


12th: OC/N2X, 3+, 7f (DD)

Most Likely: #8 Bull Dozer 4-1 WON ($6.20)
Next Best: #2 Rightfully So 3-1 4th
Best Value: #4 Seven Lively Sins 12-1 7th
Exotics Use: #7 Wild Target 4-1 8th


13th: MSW, 3+, 8.5f

Very deep set of maidens with many having run races that that look good enough. I make 7 possible and another 3 close by..

Best Value: #7 Sylvester 15-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Column 5-1 WON ($19.20)
Exotics Use: #6 Best Request 10-1 3rd
Super Add: #12 To the Stars 6-1 9th


<$100 P4 Play:

10: 8-9/SCR
11: 6-8-12-16
12: 2-4-8
13: 1-2-5-6-7-8-9-12

1x4x3x8 = 96 x .50 = $48

$0.50 Pick 4 (5,8,9/1,16,21/6,8/5) Paid $215.65


Good luck!
Steve

[pointman]

Is there any way we are going to get 10-1 on Southern Dude? Working through that race it seemed obvious to me on paper that tactically this race sets up very well for him.

[asudevil]

SB,

Great job as usual. Appreciate the time and effort that you put forth during the two week run- up.

[Rootdog1]

Originally Posted by pointman

Is there any way we are going to get 10-1 on Southern Dude? Working through that race it seemed obvious to me on paper that tactically this race sets up very well for him.

Really? Berlino Di Tiger will get the lead, and Regally Ready is quicker than Southern Dude. I am not sold on a horse running in restricted races at FG and races at Haw. That said, I dont have a great alternative in the race.

[pointman]

Originally Posted by Rootdog1

Really? Berlino Di Tiger will get the lead, and Regally Ready is quicker than Southern Dude. I am not sold on a horse running in restricted races at FG and races at Haw. That said, I dont have a great alternative in the race.

Frankly, I had a hard time making a case for a winner in this race. Assuming Berlino Di Tiger gets the lead, his form suggests to me that he will not be there at the end and Southern Dude will be sitting a great trip close to the pace. The 1 hole gives Leparoux a lot of options considering that there is not much early pace here, and I say that realizing that Leparoux is not the ideal rider in this situation.

I don't think that Regally Ready can get the lead over Southern Dude considering the post positions. At the end of the day, I get the feeling that Southern Dude will go off lower than 10-1.

[tomm5647]

Steve: Thank you for your insight and selections as always. Best of luck today.
Tom

[Uncle Daddy]

Another Triple Crown effort Steve. Can't thank you enough! Best of luck

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by Rootdog1

Really? Berlino Di Tiger will get the lead, and Regally Ready is quicker than Southern Dude. I am not sold on a horse running in restricted races at FG and races at Haw. That said, I dont have a great alternative in the race.

Agree 100% and surprised more people don't feel the same. . . When you watch his two U.S. starts, he was trying desperately to get to the front, but just had too much other speed trying to do the same. I can't imagine Julien guns that hard to deny him, and it might not matter because his horse just doesn't seem as fast. I know Berlino Di Tiger's two U.S. starts look pretty terrible on paper, but I think he's going to run a lot differently with an easier trip. Also--look at his Brazilian races--all came at 5f and on soft or heavy ground.

[casp0555]

Great job Steve the last couple of weeks. Thanks again for your unending efforts to provide as much information as possible, good luck and Happy Derby Day

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by asudevil

SB, Great job as usual. Appreciate the time and effort that you put forth during the two week run- up.

Originally Posted by tomm5647

Steve: Thank you for your insight and selections as always. Best of luck today. Tom

Originally Posted by Uncle Daddy

Another Triple Crown effort Steve. Can't thank you enough! Best of luck

Originally Posted by tiggerv

Great job Steve!

Originally Posted by casp0555

Great job Steve the last couple of weeks. Thanks again for your unending efforts to provide as much information as possible, good luck and Happy Derby Day

HB, Tomm, U/D, Tig, Billy...

Thanks very much guys.. Always a privilege to be here trying to provide all the info and atmosphere possible. Best of luck today! Weather is turning in the wrong direction, so it may get a little wonky. Still should be a great afternoon..

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by pointman

Is there any way we are going to get 10-1 on Southern Dude? Working through that race it seemed obvious to me on paper that tactically this race sets up very well for him.

Originally Posted by Rootdog1

Really? Berlino Di Tiger will get the lead, and Regally Ready is quicker than Southern Dude. I am not sold on a horse running in restricted races at FG and races at Haw. That said, I dont have a great alternative in the race.

Originally Posted by tiggerv

Don't you almost have to send from the rail? I like him too but I assume he will get bet down.

Originally Posted by knickslions2

I hope I dont jinx you but I love this horse in this race. Best of luck today Nick. Off to pocono downs in about an hour

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Agree 100% and surprised more people don't feel the same. . . When you watch his two U.S. starts, he was trying desperately to get to the front, but just had too much other speed trying to do the same. I can't imagine Julien guns that hard to deny him, and it might not matter because his horse just doesn't seem as fast. I know Berlino Di Tiger's two U.S. starts look pretty terrible on paper, but I think he's going to run a lot differently with an easier trip. Also--look at his Brazilian races--all came at 5f and on soft or heavy ground.

Since there seems to be a lot of confusion about this group, Maker/Rosario is probably the right direction. The more I look at it, the more likely it seems you get one of the late runners up, especially since we're all grappling with who the speed of the speed will be.. G/L.. Just be glad this isn't in the P5.

[Kasept]

CD SCR/CHG'S

[pointman]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Since there seems to be a lot of confusion about this group, Maker/Rosario is probably the right direction. The more I look at it, the more likely it seems you get one of the late runners up, especially since we're all grappling with who the speed of the speed will be.. G/L.. Just be glad this isn't in the P5.

I think you are right about this. This is the type of race where it looks like there is not much speed on paper so everyone guns and the pace collapses. Think I am going to play it that way now.

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by pointman

Is there any way we are going to get 10-1 on Southern Dude? Working through that race it seemed obvious to me on paper that tactically this race sets up very well for him.

I hope I dont jinx you but I love this horse in this race. Best of luck today Nick. Off to pocono downs in about an hour

[tiggerv]

Great job Steve!

Originally Posted by pointman

Is there any way we are going to get 10-1 on Southern Dude? Working through that race it seemed obvious to me on paper that tactically this race sets up very well for him.

Don't you almost have to send from the rail? I like him too but I assume he will get bet down.