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#1
05-07-2013, 06:23 PM
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How Derby winners have performed in Preakness since '89
Horses who won the Derby positioned on the lead throughout to less than 5 lengths back:
* War Emblem (wire-to-wire) Won the Preakness next out and paid $7.60 * Go For Gin (head back of leader) 2nd by three-quarters of a length at 5/2 in Preakness next out. * Funny Cide (2 lengths) Won the Preakness by 10 lengths and paid $5.80 * Smarty Jones (2.5 lengths) Won the Preakness by 11 lengths and paid $3.40 * Thunder Gulch (3.25 lengths) 3rd by three-quarter of a length at 7/2 odds. Subsequent Belmont and Travers winner. * Charismatic (3.75 lengths) 1st by 1.5 lengths in Preakness. Paid $18.80 to win. * Big Brown (4 lengths) 1st by 5 lengths in Preakness. Paid $2.40 * Barbaro (4 lengths) DNF in Preakness. Broke down. * Silver Charm (4.25 lengths) 1st by a head in Preakness. Paid $8.20 to win. Total next-out record. 9 starters - 6 winners - 1 second - 1 third. Of the three beaten -- two were beaten by less than a length and Barbaro broke down. Avg win mutual is $7.70. Derby winners that closed between 5 lengths to 10 lengths of ground: * Animal Kingdom (6.25 lengths) close second at 2/1 in Preakness. * Lil E Tee (6.25 lengths) 5th at 4/1 in Preakness. * Sunday Silence (6.50 lengths) Won Preakness and paid $6.20 * I'll Have Another (8 lengths) Won Preakness and paid $8.40 * Real Quiet (8 lengths) Won Preakness and paid $7.00 * Super Saver (8 lengths) 8th in Preakness at 9/5 odds Total Next out record: 3-for-6 (50% wins) with 1 second place finish. Avg win price of $7.30 Derby winners who rallied from more than 10 lengths back: * Strike The Gold (10.25 lengths) 6th at 9/5 odds in Preakness. * Sea Hero (10.75 lengths) 5th by 8 lengths at 4/1 in Preakness * Fusaichi Pegasus (12.5 lengths) 2nd by 4 lengths at 1/5 odds. * Unbridled (13.25 lengths) 2nd by 2.5 lengths in the Preakness. * Monarchos (16 lengths) 6th by 7.5 lengths at 2/1 odds in Preakness * Giacomo (16.25 lengths) 3rd by 9.75 lengths at 6/1 odds in Preakness * Grindstone (16.75 lengths) Never raced again * Street Sense (19.5 lengths) 2nd by a head at 6/5 odds. * Mine That Bird (21 lengths) 2nd by a length at 6/1 odds. None of the nine succeeded in the Preakness. They compiled a next out record of 8-0-4-1 with four beaten favorites. Removing Barbaro and Grindstone from consideration, the stats look like this: Less than 5 lengths back: 8-6-1-1 (75% wins, 100% ITM) Avg win mutual $7.70 5 to 10 lengths back: 6-3-1-0 (50% wins, 66.66% ITM) Avg win mutual $7.30 More than 10 lengths back: 8-0-4-1 (0% wins, 62.50% ITM) 
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#2
05-07-2013, 06:31 PM
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We had three horses in the years Kentucky Derby who closed more than 10 lengths and finished in the Superfecta. They are Orb, Golden Soul, and Revolutionary.
Since 1989, here's a list of all horses who closed 10 or more lengths to make the Derby Superfecta and run again in a triple crown race. The result of their next start is in parenthesis. Dullahan (7th as 5/2 favorite in Belmont) Went The Day Well (10th at 5/1 in Preakness) Ice Box (9th in Belmont as the 9/5 favorite) Make Music For Me (10th in Belmont at 12/1 odds) Mine That Bird (2nd in Preakness at 6/1 odds) Denis Of Cork (2nd in Belmont at 7/1 odds) Street Sense (2nd in Preakness as 6/5 favorite) I'mawildandcrazyguy (6th in Belmont at 9/1) Giacomo (3rd in Preakness at 6/1) Monarchos (6th in Preakness at 2/1 co-favorite) Fusaichi Pegasus (2nd in Preakness at 1/5 favorite) Impeachment (3rd in Preakness at 19/1) Victory Gallop (2nd as 2/1 favorite) Sea Hero (5th in the Preakness at 4/1) Prairie Bayou (Won the Preakness as 2/1 favorite) Strike The Gold (6th in the Preakness as 9/5 favorite) Green Alligator (10th in the Belmont Stakes at 4/1 odds) Unbridled (2nd in Preakness as the 8/5 favorite) 18-1-6-2 (8 beaten favorites) Lone winner 2/1 favorite Prairie Bayou won Preakness over sprinter Cherokee Run and Robert Perez's El Bakan.
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#3
05-07-2013, 06:57 PM
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This makes Pleasant Colony a rare bird indeed.
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#4
05-07-2013, 07:30 PM
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Doug,
Looking at the pace figures, final times, pace dynamics, wasn't Super Saver one the few horses with a really strong Derby who just flopped in the Preakness? Here is the Paceline CD 05/01/2010 11 113 92 81 Super Saver So the race collapsed but he was pretty close to that 113 at only 8 lengths of it, other Derbys with a +25 to +35 profile seem to all really collapse into 15-20 length Giacomo style wins. Either way I wills stab against Orb.
__________________
"To learn who rules over you, simply find out who you are not allowed to criticize"...Voltaire
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#5
05-07-2013, 07:52 PM
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Quote:
He only raced twice on a sloppy track, one time he broke his maiden by 7 lengths in a race where the 3rd place horse was beaten 15 lengths and the 4th place horse was beaten 20 lengths. His other sloppy track race, he of course won the Derby with Borel after getting a clear rail trip. History says you have to stab against Orb ... I just don't know who you stab against him with. I'd love to see Dreaming of Julia step up...but Pletcher is talking about running her in the Belmont Stakes. I don't know about that though, she's out of the Rick Violette speed sprinter Dream Rush...which sure does offset a lot of the A. P. Indy on the top of the pedigree.
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#6
05-07-2013, 08:50 PM
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Quote:
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#7
05-07-2013, 07:42 PM
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Quote:
However, Alysheba did it with dramatic flair, almost falling, and coming on to win anyway. Spectacular Bid, meanwhile, did it against a historic slow pace. Spectacular Bid ducked in a bit at the start, and was settled 6.5 lengths behind a 24 1/5th opening quarter. How slow is a 24 1/5 opening quarter in the Kentucky Derby? It's the outright slowest in the Derby since 1959 (54 years ago!) And the last time an opening quarter in the Kentucky Derby went slower than 24 1/5th was 1912 (101 years ago) when a horse named Worth got away with a 24 3/5th opening quarter and went wire-to-wire in 2:09 2/5th over a track that was a bog. General Assembly, who was leading after that historically slow 1st quarter kicked it in a bit and Spectacular Bid was 10 lengths back and in 6th position after a half in 47 2/5ths. He made a powerhouse 5-wide move on the far turn and won going away despite the slow pace. Spectacular Bid's Ragozin figure was the second fastest Kentucky Derby figure in the 1900's ... trailing only Secretariat's by 1 point.
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#8
05-07-2013, 08:32 PM
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#9
05-07-2013, 07:49 PM
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Doug, I will be having a tremendous vested interest in the race and this analysis is sensational stuff. Much obliged.
__________________
Good Luck......and may a Derby Trailer lead the way to the window! Ed
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