The Career of D. Wayne Lukas

[Sightseek]

Lukas is likely to be one of the most controversial trainers, but after Azeri retired, he looked completely finished yet bounces back with a very strong year. Racing has been both better (the tremendous career of horses like Lady's Secret) and worse (all the horses he went through to get to those wins) yet, if only trainers were still willing to take shots perhaps racing would be in a much better place?

Triple Crown Highlights:
1st Preakness S. - 2013 - Oxbow
1st Belmont S. - 2000 - Commendable
1st Preakness S. - 1999 - Charismatic
1st Kentucky Derby - 1999 - Charismatic
1st Belmont S. - 1996 - Editor's Note
1st Kentucky Derby - 1996 - Grindstone
1st Belmont S. - 1995 - Thunder Gulch
1st Preakness S. - 1995 - Timber Country
1st Kentucky Derby - 1995 - Thunder Gulch
1st Belmont S. - 1994 - Tabasco Cat
1st Preakness S. - 1994 - Tabasco Cat
1st Kentucky Derby - 1988 - Winning Colors
1st Preakness S. - 1985 - Tank's Prospect
1st Preakness S. - 1980 - Codex
2nd Kentucky Derby - 2002 - Proud Citizen
2nd Preakness S. - 1991 - Corporate Report
3rd Preakness S. - 2003 - Scrimshaw
3rd Preakness S. - 2002 - Proud Citizen
3rd Belmont S. - 1999 - Charismatic
3rd Kentucky Derby - 1999 - Cat Thief
3rd Preakness S. - 1996 - Editor's Note
3rd Kentucky Derby - 1996 - Prince of Thieves
3rd Preakness S. - 1995 - Thunder Gulch
3rd Kentucky Derby - 1995 - Timber Country
3rd Kentucky Derby - 1992 - Dance Floor
3rd Preakness S. - 1988 - Winning Colors
3rd Kentucky Derby - 1981 - Partez

[Breeders' Cup Race] Breeders’ Cup Highlights:
1st Breeders' Cup Juvenile Sprint - 2012 - Hightail
1st Alberto VO5 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies - 2005 - Folklore
1st NAPA Breeders' Cup Sprint - 2002 - Orientate
1st Breeders' Cup Distaff - 2000 - Spain
1st Breeders' Cup Classic - 1999 - Cat Thief
1st Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies - 1999 - Cash Run
1st Breeders' Cup Juvenile - 1996 - Boston Harbor
1st Breeders' Cup Juvenile - 1994 - Timber Country
1st Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies - 1994 - Flanders
1st Breeders' Cup Mile - 1989 - Steinlen (GB)
1st Breeders' Cup Juvenile - 1988 - Is It True
1st Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies - 1988 - Open Mind
1st Breeders' Cup Sprint - 1988 - Gulch
1st Breeders' Cup Distaff - 1987 - Sacahuista
1st Breeders' Cup Juvenile S. - 1987 - Success Express
1st Breeders' Cup Distaff - 1986 - Lady's Secret
1st Breeders' Cup Juvenile S. - 1986 - Capote
1st Breeders' Cup Distaff - 1985 - Life's Magic
1st Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies - 1985 - Twilight Ridge
2nd Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Sprint - 2010 - Hamazing Destiny
2nd Breeders' Cup Distaff - 2001 - Spain
2nd Breeders' Cup Distaff - 2000 - Surfside
2nd Breeders' Cup Sprint - 1998 - Grand Slam
2nd Breeders' Cup Distaff - 1997 - Sharp Cat
2nd Breeders' Cup Distaff - 1996 - Serena's Song
2nd Breeders' Cup Juvenile - 1995 - Hennessy
2nd Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies - 1995 - Cara Rafaela
2nd Breeders' Cup Classic - 1994 - Tabasco Cat
2nd Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies - 1994 - Serena's Song
2nd Breeders' Cup Classic - 1991 - Twilight Agenda
2nd Breeders' Cup Juvenile - 1989 - Grand Canyon
2nd Breeders' Cup Distaff - 1988 - Winning Colors
2nd Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies - 1988 - Darby Shuffle
2nd Breeders' Cup Mile - 1988 - Steinlen (GB)
2nd Breeders' Cup Distaff - 1987 - Clabber Girl
2nd Breeders' Cup Sprint S. - 1986 - Pine Tree Lane
2nd Breeders' Cup Distaff - 1985 - Lady's Secret
2nd Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies - 1985 - Family Style
2nd Breeders' Cup Distaff - 1984 - Life's Magic
2nd Breeders' Cup Juvenile - 1984 - Tank's Prospect
3rd Breeders' Cup Distaff Presented by NexTel - 2004 - Stellar Jayne
3rd Breeders' Cup Juvenile - 1999 - High Yield
3rd Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies - 1999 - Surfside
3rd Breeders' Cup Juvenile - 1998 - Cat Thief
3rd Breeders' Cup Sprint - 1996 - Honour and Glory
3rd Breeders' Cup Juvenile - 1995 - Editor's Note
3rd Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies - 1995 - Golden Attraction
3rd Breeders' Cup Juvenile - 1993 - Tabasco Cat
3rd Breeders' Cup Mile - 1991 - Star of Cozzene
3rd Breeders' Cup Distaff - 1989 - Open Mind
3rd Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies - 1989 - Stella Madrid
3rd Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies - 1988 - Lea Lucinda
3rd Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies S. - 1987 - Dream Team
3rd Breeders' Cup Juvenile S. - 1987 - Tejano
3rd Breeders' Cup Sprint - 1985 - Mt. Livermore

[King Glorious]

I think of Lukas in the same way I think of a coach like John Calipari at Kentucky. Cal is not going to apologize for his way of doing things and neither will Lukas. Both have questionable methods and are criticized for their sort of assembly line approach but they get results. If you are an investor and you're looking for a guy to develop a horse for you that can be successful at four or five, Lukas isn't your guy. But if you're looking at a quick return and someone that can get you some success on the biggest stage you'd be a fool not to call him. He knows what it takes to get there.

[fpsoxfan]

I didn't have the horse, but I'm glad for the guy. Look at the combined age of the trainer/jockey. That's a lot of experience.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I think of Lukas in the same way I think of a coach like John Calipari at Kentucky. Cal is not going to apologize for his way of doing things and neither will Lukas. Both have questionable methods and are criticized for their sort of assembly line approach but they get results. If you are an investor and you're looking for a guy to develop a horse for you that can be successful at four or five, Lukas isn't your guy. But if you're looking at a quick return and someone that can get you some success on the biggest stage you'd be a fool not to call him. He knows what it takes to get there.

He obviously did great back in the 1980s. There is no debate about that. We can debate as to why he did so well, but there is no debating the fact that he did incredibly well.

But when you look at the past 15 years, I think his numbers are horrible. And it's not as if he is not getting good horses. He still gets great horses. Just look at the Preakness. They paid $425,000 for Will Take Charge. They paid $250,000 for Oxbow and they paid $250,000 for Titletown Five. When you're getting tons of $250,000 and up yearlings and 2 year olds, you're going to win some stakes races.

If you give any trainer 20-30 two year olds and yearlings that went for $250,000 and up, they are going to win plenty of stakes races.

For him, Lukas has been on fire the last year or so. For him being on fire means he was at a 7% win clip in graded stakes races going into today. He was 6 for 88. Let's compare that to a a couple of other trainers. Doug O'Neil (who I am no fan of) is winning graded stakes races at a 13% clip (11 for 82 going into today). Shug McGaughey was winning graded stakes races at a 29% clip going into today (20 for 68).

When a guy is getting practically nothing but $250,000 horses and he's winning graded stakes races at a 7% clip, I don't think that's too good. And if you look at the past 7-8 years or so, I think the number is more like 5% at the most. That's not too good.

[Belinda Cubbage]

At seventy-seven years old the Coach took them to school today. He is a brilliant, brilliant man.

[OldDog]

Originally Posted by Belinda Cubbage

At seventy-seven years old the Coach took them to school today. He is a brilliant, brilliant man.

Two of my favorite brushes with greatness, back in the early '80s:

Joe B. Hall

D. Wayne Lucas.

Congrats, Wayne!

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by OldDog

D. Wayne Lucas.

Come on, man! Really?

[OldDog]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Come on, man! Really?

Really

[herkhorse]

Originally Posted by OldDog

Really

He's referring to your spelling, Lucas is the guy who made movies.

[King Glorious]

Rupert, you make some good points here. I won't sit here and pretend that I know the circumstances each time he enters a horse but I have always believe that stats like these were not the best way to judge Lukas. There are many times where he enters a horse in a race where winning is not the biggest objective for him. He's always been a guy that will use a race as a way of getting ready for the next one. Most trainers these days only send them out ready to win and don't use preps the way they used to. Even today, Wayne only went 1/3.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Even today, Wayne only went 1/3.

I assume you mean in the Preakness, not the whole day?

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Rupert, you make some good points here. I won't sit here and pretend that I know the circumstances each time he enters a horse but I have always believe that stats like these were not the best way to judge Lukas. There are many times where he enters a horse in a race where winning is not the biggest objective for him. He's always been a guy that will use a race as a way of getting ready for the next one. Most trainers these days only send them out ready to win and don't use preps the way they used to. Even today, Wayne only went 1/3.

I think he actually went to 2 for 5 today in graded stakes races. He won the grade II Dixie in addition to the Preakness. He obviously had a great day today. I agree with what you're saying in regard to just normal win percentage. He usually doesn't have his horses totally cranked up for their debuts. He will often times give them a race. That might lower his overall win percentage by a point or two.

But I don't think you can use that argument in graded stakes races. Trainers don't normally prep horses in graded stakes races.

In terms of judging the way Lukas spots his horses, it's really just a matter of what an owner's personal preference is. If an owner's personal preference is to always take chances and run 20-1 shots in big races, then Lukas might be a good trainer for that owner. There is a risk with that strategy. Horses aren't machines. They usually don't stay in form for very long and they usually don't stay sound for very long. If you run your horse over his head, at the very least you are wasting a race. In addition, your horse may not come out of the race in one piece.

On the other hand, some trainers are way too conservative. I know some trainers who only want to run their horse in a stakes race if the horse is going to be 5-1 or less. I think that is ridiculous. You need to take chances sometimes. There are extremes on both sides. I like a trainer that is somewhere in between, a trainer that is willing to take chances occasionally but not a trainer who is constantly running his horses over their heads.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I think he actually went to 2 for 5 today in graded stakes races. He won the grade II Dixie in addition to the Preakness. He obviously had a great day today. I agree with what you're saying in regard to just normal win percentage. He usually doesn't have his horses totally cranked up for their debuts. He will often times give them a race. That might lower his overall win percentage by a point or two.

But I don't think you can use that argument in graded stakes races. Trainers don't normally prep horses in graded stakes races.

In terms of judging the way Lukas spots his horses, it's really just a matter of what an owner's personal preference is. If an owner's personal preference is to always take chances and run 20-1 shots in big races, then Lukas might be a good trainer for that owner. There is a risk with that strategy. Horses aren't machines. They usually don't stay in form for very long and they usually don't stay sound for very long. If you run your horse over his head, at the very least you are wasting a race. In addition, your horse may not come out of the race in one piece.

On the other hand, some trainers are way too conservative. I know some trainers who only want to run their horse in a stakes race if the horse is going to be 5-1 or less. I think that is ridiculous. You need to take chances sometimes. There are extremes on both sides. I like a trainer that is somewhere in between, a trainer that is willing to take chances occasionally but not a trainer who is constantly running his horses over their heads.

As to your first bolded commentary, wouldn't Bill Mott be a perfect example of a trainer who has been brilliant at racing in graded stakes as preps for the big one? Isn't that the whole concept of the "Derby Preps" system? Look at the sweep Pletcher makes of Graded Stakes year round, but how does he perform on Breeder's Cup, Derby day, Travers etc.? Sure he has won a few, but he has lost a lot more at less than 5-1.

As to the second bolded commentary, are the horses of winning percentage obsessed trainers really lasting any longer? Some will argue (and very effectively) that less racing is actually making horses less sound. Can you absolutely say that Normandy Invasion's career is going to last longer because despite reports of him acting and feeling great, he stayed in his stall yesterday? Itsmyluckyday got trounced in the Derby, but ran back to a solid second yesterday. Sure, there is no harm in him staying in his stall and waiting for the Haskell, but thankfully, there are still trainers out there taking a shot and that is what makes racing more interesting and stronger as a sport.