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#1
06-09-2006, 01:53 AM
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Grey on Belmont Day
Not only are the meteorologists' predicting Grey skies for Saturday at Belmont Park, but there are plenty of top contenders in Stake races that are Grey. Let's take a closer look at the top Grey performers. I thought Halloween was in October?
Race 7 - #1 Ozone Bere (Fr) - Impressive U.S. debut showing plenty of guts on the rail. Could turn out to be a the top of the Division. Race 8 - #1 Too Much Bling - Received a well deserved vacation, but is thrown right into the fire again. He's 3 for 3 for the year and has done it with style (Bling). A very nice sprinter to say the least. Race 9 - # 7 Teammate - Talented filly makes her return after a foot bruise sent her to the sidelines. She beat some quality fillies at Gulfstream Park and looks ready to fire for the Giant Killer. Race 10 - #5 Grey Swallow (Ire) - Outstanding U.S. debut for the son of '99 Turf Champion Daylami. The class of the field should be close to the front end in a race that lacks pace. The 5yr old is primed for a huge '06 campaign. This might be the best price you'll get on him all year. Keep punching tickets with him on top until your arms get tired. BEST BET OF THE DAY Race 11 - #11 Steppenwolfer - Mr. Consistent, never off the board on dirt. The grey is training better than ever and should relish the extra distance. Serious contender. #12 Sacred Light - Stumbled badly at the start of the SA Derby and lost all chances. It cost him the son of Holy Bull a start in the Derby, but he still starter on Derby day vs. older horses and ran a respectable 2nd. Please note his effort in ALW race on Derby day was from a dead rail. Major Player at a Price $$$. Grey Racing Luck 
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#2
06-09-2006, 07:40 AM
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Ozone Bere enjoyed an absolutely perfect trip, and masterful ride, against an extremely weak bunch on Preakness Day, and is way out of her league here. Even if Wend doesn't handle the going, and I think she will, Ozone Bere couldn't beat Gorella without an incident. Frankly, I'm skeptical that she is even better than Pommes Frites.
As for Grey Swallow, I'm not sure what was " outstanding " about his US debut where he was allowed to walk around the track ( half in 51 and change ) against a terrible and badly overmatched five horse field ( four opponents ). To me he appears to be yet another once top Euro who is well past his prime and was sent to the US to chase the mediocre pickings around the States. While other than English Channel, and his tactical advantage, there are no killers here, I am dubious about Grey Swallow's chances. This is certainly a completely different game than the one he played in California six weeks ago. And, oh yeah, the rail wasn't dead on Derby Day.
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#3
06-09-2006, 07:44 AM
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#4
06-09-2006, 07:42 AM
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Bogey, This I will tell you. I had keyed Grey Swallow in a pik-4 last out and watched him run, he beat absolute garbage horses, and had to work hard to get by one of the goats on the turn. Hes a nothing, and I mean a NOTHING. There is no way he beats this field on saturday. Apparaently Im the only one who actually watched his last race, because I just can't fathom why so many people like this horse in a race that he has absolutely no chance at all of winning. YOU may wanna go back and watch his last race, and actually peruse the pp's of the absolute rodents he beat last out. No way, no how.
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#5
06-09-2006, 07:49 AM
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I agree with pretty much everything blackthroatedwind said. I totally concur about him being overrated and most likely over the hill, but at the same time, I wouldn't be able to forgive myself if a ticket blew up because he finally lived up to the hype. The horse did beat Bago once upon a time after all.
And the sun will be out Saturday, Bogey! No grey skies.
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#6
06-09-2006, 07:52 AM
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Ateam he beat absolute nothings last time, I mean please. Beacon Breacon? You've got to be kidding me. English Channel and Cacique are both making their 3rd starts in the form cycle and have had proper 5 weeks rest of their last race. Both are well trained, etc. I'm not saying to go out and mortgage the house and bet an exacta box on the two faves, but including horses like Grey Swallow in pik-3's and pik-4's is insanity, it will repreesent a complete waste of money.
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#7
06-09-2006, 08:14 AM
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There is ZERO evidence that the rail was " not the place to be " on Derby Day....and I mean ZERO. Because a trainer made the mistake of using it as an excuse for a horse, Sweetnorthernsaint, who had actual excuses does not make it so. The simple fact is that plenty of horses ran just fine, no worse than could have been expected and in some cases possibly better, while running on the rail. With that being the case, and I have gone back and watched the replays of all the dirt races more than once, there is NO chance there was anything wrong with the rail that day. The simple fact is that because a horse, even a few horses, don't perform up to expectations while being on the rail ( and I'm not convinced there are examples of this on Derby Day ), the rail is NOT necessarily dead. As, if even a couple of horses perform up to expectations while racing on the rail then there is no chance it is ( or was ) dead. If the rail is dead, or even " not the place to be ", NOBODY will run up to expectations. It will not hamper some but not all....it will affect every single horse that races on it.
The simple fact is that racetracks can often give the illusion of having an off rail because most races are run in an outside flow manner. The funny thing about Derby Day was the number of horses that actually made effective moves inside of horses and towards the inside. The track, at Churchill Downs on May 6th, was even.
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#8
06-09-2006, 08:16 AM
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No offense dude, you're sharp and have hit more Pick 6 tickets than I've even played in my life, but I've also seen your tickets go down the drain after you get beaten by a chalk, which I think most would say is INSANE. If I'm gonna invest a significant amount of money into a Pick 4 or Pick 6, I don't care if I absolutely hate the favorite, I'm including him or her if I'm not singling someone else, because it just makes zero sense to have a big ticket explode thanks to your exclusion of a chalk that won.
Large Pick 4 and 6 tickets are not the places to try and beat favorites all day long. Last edited by ateamstupid : 06-09-2006 at 08:18 AM.
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#9
06-09-2006, 08:23 AM
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You are correct, while I don't particularly like Grey Swallow, a responsible Pick-6 for reasonable money must use him somewhere on at least one of your tickets. If you're playing for a few hundred bucks it is probably fine to spend you money elsewhere ( like using as many horses as possible against Too Much Bling ) but no responsible ticket, for real money, would completely leave Grey Swallow out.
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#10
06-09-2006, 09:53 AM
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And if there is a single today that leaps out at anybody, well, I sure don't see it. Anxiously awaiting the track conditions and late scratches. The Hill Prince is a VERY hard race imo.
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#11
06-09-2006, 11:59 AM
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Lots of scratches in the 9th leaving a 4 house field... Wild Gams and Kahlila are left. I think To Sender bounces back in the Hill Prince. I'm saving my money for tomorrow tough. Good Luck!
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