Belmont S. could offer short-lived return to glory for Derby plodders

[Calzone Lord]

The Kentucky Derby usually features a large field of horses, the big field forces riders to be aggressive leaving the gate in search of position. That is one of the main reasons why the Derby pace is virtually always too fast.

Of the last 25 horses to win the Kentucky Derby: here is how they performed in the Preakness next-time out. (Grindstone and Barbaro are removed. The former was injured and never started after the KY Derby. The latter broke down very early on in the Preakness)

Those positioned Less than 5 lengths back in their Derby win: 8-6-1-1 (75% wins, 100% ITM) Avg win mutual $7.70

Those positioned 5 to 10 lengths back in Derby win: 6-3-1-0 (50% wins, 66.66% ITM) Avg win mutual $7.30

Those positioned More than 10 lengths back in Derby win: 9-0-4-1 (0% wins, 55.56% ITM) Orb became the 5th beaten favorite in this category.


Interestingly, a large field appears to be assembling for this years Belmont Stakes.

Besides field size and a necessity to get early position, another major factor in the way paces develop is the human element.

And the human factor swings the opposite way after a Preakness where Oxbow got a free ride on a pace that was actually honest, but perceived slow by a lot of media and horsemen. There will be other quick horses in this race, and Oxbow is certain to be hooked early.

This all bodes very well for the Orb redemption tour...and his fellow plodders who ran well in the Derby (Golden Soul and Revolutionary) as well.

The Belmont Stakes pace should be 48.00 seconds or faster for a half ... and that will be glorious for the Derby trio. However, history shows that Belmont Stakes closers who benefit from a setup are extremely overrated in subsequent starts.

The Equibase charts only go back to 1991. Here are the best performers of the horses who raced 5 lengths or more back, after a half mile was complete, in the years where the pace was 48.00 or faster. Note their subsequent performances.

* 2009: 47.13 half (Mine That Bird had the best result of any horse 5 lengths or more back of it, he finished 3rd. He was winless in all 7 subsequent starts, his best result a 3rd in the West Virginia Derby at Mountaineer. Luv Gov, who finished 5th of 10, had the second best result of any horse 5 or more lengths back. With no layoff lines, he was no better than 3rd in each of next eight starts, before finally winning a claiming race at Oaklawn Park as a 4-year-old. It was his third try at the claiming level)

* 2006: 47.36 half (winner Jazil was dead last, and 10+ back after a half. He never won another race. He was 2nd at 2/5 and 2nd at 4/5 in two allowance races and finished 12th in the Elkhorn. Oh So Awesome, 5th of 12 in the Belmont had the second best result of the closers. He was no better than 3rd in each of his next 8 starts, before finally winning a claiming race at Fair Grounds.)

* 2001: 48.00 half (Monarchos was 5.25 lengths back after a half and finished 3rd. He was 3rd at odds of 1/2 in a GP allowance and was retired never winning again. Dollar Bill, 7.25 lengths back, finished 4th with the second best result. He was 1-for-11 the rest of his career, the lone win coming by a neck in ALW race at Fair Grounds at odds of 4/5)

* 1999: 47.60 half (Best of Luck had the best result of anyone 5 lengths or more back. He closed from 12+ lengths back to finish 4th in the field. He was off the board in the Jim Dandy at 3/1 next out and was 1-for-11 with 3 alw defeats afterwards. Pineaff, the second best result of anyone more than 5 lengths back, finished 3rd at 3/1 in the Pennsylvania Derby next out. He was also 3rd in the Super Derby, and never won another race)

* 1996: 46.80 half (winner Editor's Note was 11.5 lengths after a half and ran down Skip Away in the stretch to win. He was off the board in both the Jim Dandy and Travers -- and was 2-for-14 the rest of his career with one win coming at the ALW level. My Flag closed from 13.5 lengths back for 3rd, splitting pace pressers Skip Away (2nd) and Louis Quatorze (4th) -- she was 2-for-9 against fillies the rest of her career. Both wins were Grade 1 wins, but they came at odds of 1/5 and odds of 3/5. Meanwhile, Skip Away and Louis split Cigar going 10 furlongs in the Jockey Club Gold Cup later that year)

* 1994: 47.40 half mile (Only a six horse field, and amazingly no one was 5 lengths or more back after a half mile. Signal Tap almost was, he closed from dead last to finish 4th beaten six lengths. He was beaten in all of his next six starts. Five of them at the ALW level -- and the lone stakes try a 7th place finish in the Pennsylvania Derby as the second choice in the betting)

* 1992: 47.00 half mile (My Memories had the best result of any horse 5 lengths of more back. He closed strongly to finish 2nd beaten less than a length by winner A. P. Indy. He was a badly beaten favorite when off the board in the Jim Dandy next out and never better than 6th in all five starts afterwards. Cristofori had the second best result of any closer, he finished 4th to A. P. Indy in the field of 11. He was never better than 3rd each time for the rest of his career. In fact, he was defeated six times at the allowance level and retired with a 2-for-15 record, both wins coming before the Belmont Stakes)

* 1991: 46.60 half mile (Strike The Gold had the best result. He was 13.75 lengths back after a half and surged late to finish 2nd by a head. He was defeated in each of his next 10 starts, six of those defeats coming as the post time favorite. Nine times he was 4/1 or less over the 10 race losing streak. Quintana finished 6th of 11, and had the second best result of any horse in the race who was 5 or more back after a half. He lost every single one of his next 16 starts after the Belmont Stakes! He finally won a claiming race at Santa Anita to snap the losing streak.

[Danzig]

how much 'redemption' does orb need? wasnt the derby his fifth win in a row? and followed winning the graded foy, fla derby?

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Danzig

how much 'redemption' does orb need? wasnt the derby his fifth win in a row? and followed winning the graded foy, fla derby?

I suppose he's already won the 3-year-old title in some peoples eyes, just as he had already won the triple crown in those same eyes.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

I suppose he's already won the 3-year-old title in some peoples eyes, just as he had already won the triple crown in those same eyes.

true.

[10 pnt move up]

So a closer can win this race, been done many many times, I wonder how horses who closed in the crazy pace Derbys, skipped the Preakness, faired when they ran in the Belmont.

Horses like Ice Box.

I am against Revolutionary in the Belmont and figure he fits that Ice Box pattern.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

So a closer can win this race, been done many many times, I wonder how horses who closed in the crazy pace Derbys, skipped the Preakness, faired when they ran in the Belmont.

Horses like Ice Box.

I am against Revolutionary in the Belmont and figure he fits that Ice Box pattern.

They haven't done well.

However, Ice Box was an example of a horse who caught a wet track blazing fast pace in the Derby and a moderate pace in the Belmont.

I don't think the pace will be moderate this year, so Ice Box might not be the best example.

[Sightseek]

Poor Giacomo!

Having been ridden better, he would have hit the board in all 3 Triple Crown races.

[GenuineRisk]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Poor Giacomo!

Having been ridden better, he would have hit the board in all 3 Triple Crown races.

I thought he flipped his palate in the Belmont.