Most Likely BC winner

pweizer · #1 10-23-2013, 07:50 PM

Now that pre-entries are out, I am curious who people think is the single most likely Breeder's Cup race winner on the card?

Last year seemed much easier. Groupie Doll and Royal Delta seemed like locks. Wise Dan seemed very likely. All won as useful singles.

This year is much harder. All three of the above come in off a loss and see much less invincible.

What is your early single?

Paul

my miss storm cat · #2 10-23-2013, 07:57 PM

Princess of Sylmar.

asudevil · #3 10-23-2013, 09:00 PM

Dank by the length of the tote board in the F&M Turf.

Scav · #4 10-23-2013, 09:39 PM

Wise Dan is easily the best single. His race last time was far more impressive then people giving him credit for, being wide the entire race, against a loose lead short stretch cluster**** of a race.

At the very least, the loss will hopefully make people spread a little more in that race, when nothing is needed besides him.

declansharbor · #5 10-23-2013, 09:44 PM

My 'Lahudood' selection of 2013 is My Conquistadory in the Juvy Filly Turf.

Kasept · #6 10-23-2013, 09:50 PM

Babies dicey as 'most likely', but Chad Brown's J-Turf/JF-Turf runners sure look imposing: Bobby's Kitten & Testa Rossi..

ateamstupid · #7 10-23-2013, 11:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

Wise Dan is easily the best single. His race last time was far more impressive then people giving him credit for, being wide the entire race, against a loose lead short stretch cluster**** of a race.

At the very least, the loss will hopefully make people spread a little more in that race, when nothing is needed besides him.

I agree with this.

VOL JACK · #8 10-24-2013, 12:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

Wise Dan is easily the best single. His race last time was far more impressive then people giving him credit for, being wide the entire race, against a loose lead short stretch cluster**** of a race.

At the very least, the loss will hopefully make people spread a little more in that race, when nothing is needed besides him.

philcski · #9 10-24-2013, 08:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

Wise Dan is easily the best single. His race last time was far more impressive then people giving him credit for, being wide the entire race, against a loose lead short stretch cluster**** of a race.

At the very least, the loss will hopefully make people spread a little more in that race, when nothing is needed besides him.

I agree. Thorograph loves the race too. Got a -2.25, which is about his career average.

Not to mention the "weatherproof" Polytrack was an absolute mess that day.

randallscott35 · #10 10-24-2013, 08:14 PM

I find it hard to believe he will be overlooked. Maybe 4-5 instead of 3-5.

VOL JACK · #11 10-24-2013, 12:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by asudevil

Dank by the length of the tote board in the F&M Turf.

It's possible but, Romantica Euro form looks at least as good as Dank's Euro form.

PatCummings · #12 10-24-2013, 12:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

It's possible but, Romantica Euro form looks at least as good as Dank's Euro form.

I agree. I did not think much of Dank's Euro form when she came to Arlington, and in hindsight, did she explode - yes - exploded away from Gifted Girl and Ausus...

Romantica's win in the Prix Jean Romanet is the best form line between the two horses.

casp0555 · #13 10-24-2013, 12:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I agree with this.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

Wise Dan is easily the best single. His race last time was far more impressive then people giving him credit for, being wide the entire race, against a loose lead short stretch cluster**** of a race.

At the very least, the loss will hopefully make people spread a little more in that race, when nothing is needed besides him.

VOL JACK · #14 10-24-2013, 07:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PatCummings

I agree. I did not think much of Dank's Euro form when she came to Arlington, and in hindsight, did she explode - yes - exploded away from Gifted Girl and Ausus...

Romantica's win in the Prix Jean Romanet is the best form line between the two horses.

Especially with the way she was herded out at the top of the stretch.

Travis Stone · #15 10-24-2013, 09:35 AM

I've been saying this for the past couple of weeks... there are very few "standouts" (I use that term loosely) this year.

10 pnt move up · #16 10-24-2013, 10:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

I've been saying this for the past couple of weeks... there are very few "standouts" (I use that term loosely) this year.

I think your wrong, to a degree. I think the favorites in many of the races are strong, though it might be more than one horse, I dont think you have to go too deep this year.

Distaff - Royal Delta or Princess of Sylmar are going to win
Classic - If Game on Dude breaks on top he is going to win
FM Turf - Dank looks serious to me
Juvenile - Havana looks like a standout on paper, Tap it Rich has talent
Sprint - I dont think you have to look further than Pointsoffthebench or Private Zone

I dont count the other pretend races as real BC races, but in the main event races I dont think it looks that competitive (though I will still bet some overylays)

I suppose in the classic one could take the view it could totally melt down, but on paper, there is a true standout.

jms62 · #17 10-24-2013, 11:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

I think your wrong, to a degree. I think the favorites in many of the races are strong, though it might be more than one horse, I dont think you have to go too deep this year.

Distaff - Royal Delta or Princess of Sylmar are going to win
Classic - If Game on Dude breaks on top he is going to win
FM Turf - Dank looks serious to me
Juvenile - Havana looks like a standout on paper, Tap it Rich has talent
Sprint - I dont think you have to look further than Pointsoffthebench or Private Zone

I dont count the other pretend races as real BC races, but in the main event races I dont think it looks that competitive (though I will still bet some overylays)

I suppose in the classic one could take the view it could totally melt down, but on paper, there is a true standout.

Yeah this time it will be different all the first or second choices that look great on paper will win.

parsixfarms · #18 10-24-2013, 11:39 AM

With big fields over a one-mile main track and a 7F turf course, isn't it almost impossible to make any pronouncement of a "most likely winner" until post positions are drawn?

Payson Dave · #19 10-24-2013, 12:01 PM

on a related note...Flat Out for Bill Mott is scheduled to put in a final BC work on the Saratoga Training Track (Oklahoma) tomorrow or Saturday.
Sky Painter, Alpha, Dancing House, Dance Card for Kiaran McLaughlin are scheduled to put in their final BC works on Oklahoma tomorrow.
Reports to follow

Travis Stone · #20 10-25-2013, 12:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

I think your wrong, to a degree. I think the favorites in many of the races are strong, though it might be more than one horse, I dont think you have to go too deep this year.

Distaff - Royal Delta or Princess of Sylmar are going to win
Classic - If Game on Dude breaks on top he is going to win
FM Turf - Dank looks serious to me
Juvenile - Havana looks like a standout on paper, Tap it Rich has talent
Sprint - I dont think you have to look further than Pointsoffthebench or Private Zone

I dont count the other pretend races as real BC races, but in the main event races I dont think it looks that competitive (though I will still bet some overylays)

I suppose in the classic one could take the view it could totally melt down, but on paper, there is a true standout.

I could easily be wrong, but I think some of these are excellent bet againsts. I would never want to take something-to-five on Game on Dude when Fort Larned has one way to go (and he goes fast) and Moreno as well. Top contender? Absolutely... could easily win by 10. But that doesn't make him a sound wagering proposition.