11/2 (SA): 30th Breeders' Cup -- Day 2 ($891k P5 C/O)

[Kasept]

Super highway main track proved irksome commodity for a while Friday as feared, but most seemed to adjust accordingly and at least know what to expect Saturday. Overall afternoon was enjoyable culminating with spectacular effort by Beholder in the Distaff. Earlier, both juvenile grass races saw big performances from Euro winners Chriselliam and Outstrip. Mutuel efforts were solid with a big hit to start the day in the opener and a nice flourish through the late P4 races. Hope everyone did well..


SANTA ANITA


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: 2nd Juvenile Turf Sprint, 2yo, 6.5f-T (P5, P3, DD)

$891k P5 C/O starts here..

Most Likely: #9 Toowindytohailrox 5-1 2nd
Best Value: #7 Dothraki 15-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Love In The Desert 2-1 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Test Ride 5-1 7th


2nd: Damascus, 3yo, 7f (P3, DD)

If track is still souped up today, Anillo will be the one to catch. Flashback still likely to win, but under scenario we saw yesterday, this is the kind of spot where awareness of the possibility of a wire job by the speed of the speed means taking a chance by at least covering a horse like Anillo..

Best Value: #5 Anillo 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Flashback 2-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Zeewat 4-1 WIN ($12.00)


3rd: Sen. Ken Maddy (G3), F&M-3+, 6.5f-T (P3, DD)

Like Friday's terrific Twilight, a contentious group. Juddmonte made a very specific decision in bringing Ultrasonic SCR'D to U.S. to run down the hill. Minds Eyes and Unusual Hottie offer value and can be used on top. Both Proctor runners are eligible, but there's plenty of speed here so Procurement (6-1) earns the nod over Purim's Dancer (7-2)..

Best Value: #8 Minds Eyes 15-1 9th
Next Best: #10 Unusual Hottie 8-1 10th
Exotics Use: #13 Pontchatrain 6-1 WON ($6.60)
Super Add: #3 Winding Way 8-1 2nd


4th: 30th Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1), 2yo-F, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Sweet Reason, already a caution after iffy appearances in the morning, appears further compromised by track conditions. Rooting for, but betting against. Hushion's peaking Frizette winner Artemis Agrotera meanwhile gets benefit of track and may be 2nd New York bred to win a Cup race 24 hours after London Bridge broke the ice for Empire State in the Marathon. Midwest fillies from McPeek and Asmussen look ideal as next likelys. Though West Coast gals Secret Compass and She's a Tiger (both 6-1) have gotten the most notice, diminutive Concave has made an impression on me every morning with her plucky spins and will provide tremendous value at 15-1 or more..

Most Likely: #1 Artemis Agrotera 3-1 5th
Best Value: #2 Rosalind 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Untapable 5-1 8th
Exotics Use: #6 Concave 15-1 9th


5th: 15th Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf, F&M-3+, 10f-T (P3, DD)

Important to know if Laughing is staying in this or not. High strung miss did not ship well -- which her team knew might be an issue -- and went off her feed. If they run, then she should be 100% fine as Goldberg/Santulli top horsemen that have reputations of always doing the right thing by their horses. There isn't any authentic speed to go with Laughing, so she presents the same wire threat in this that she has all summer..

Most Likely: #1 Dank 5-2 WON ($5.00)
Best Value: #2 Romantica 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Tix Flirtacious 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Marketing Mix 7-2 5th


<$75 P5 Play:

1: 7-8-9
2: 1-5
3: 3-8-10-13
4: 1-2-7
5: 1-2

3x2x4x3x2 = 144 x .50 = $72


6th: 7th Breeders' Cup F&M Sprint (G1), F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD)

First of the day's defending Cup winners here and after season-long travails, expect -- not just hope -- Groupie Doll goes out in style. Pace runners like Ismene and Starship offer great value as types that can survive front end while Sweet Lulu (and Summer Applause as well) have that turnback punch you look for at seven-eighths..

Most Likely: #11 Groupie Doll 5-2 WON ($8.00)
Best Value: #6 Ismene 20-1 11th
Next Best: #12 Sweet Lulu 8-1 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Starship Truffles 15-1 12th


7th: 30th Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (G3), 3+, 6.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

Typically fun downhill event and key numbers are :21.2 and :42.2 as anything south of those splits will elicit a collapse. Renee, Tightend and Spring/Sky look like they will provide solid zip, but there may not be quite enough pressure to guarantee that the closers get up like Desert Code in '08 or Mizdirection last year. Interesting thing about the defending winner is that she has been on the front end this year but appears capable of adjusting to whatever she encounters. Working insanely and may very well retain hill crown..

Most Likely: #9 Capo Bastone 8-1 13th
Next Best: #12 Mizdirection 4-1 WON ($7.40)
Best Value: #2 Rock Me Baby 30-1 6th
Exotics Use: #3 Chips All In 5-1 9th
Super Add: #11 Spring to the Sky 30-1 11th


<$75 P4 Play:

4: 1-2-7
5: 1-2-3-6
6: 3-4-6-8-11-12
7: 9-12

3x4x6x2 = 144 x .50 = $72


8th: 30th Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1), 2yo, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Draw placing Strong Mandate and Havana wide opened this race up, but note that Goldencents managed to make the outpost work OK Friday by getting the lead and letting the conveyor assist him late. Will respect the obvious on the outside, but have to lean on some playable prices inside..

Most Likely: #4 New Year's Day 8-1 WON ($23.00)
Next Best: #3 Mexikoma 12-1 6th
Best Value: #1 Smarty's Echo 20-1 10th
Exotics Use: #14 Strong Mandate 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #13 Havana 5-2 2nd


9th: 30th Breeders' Cup Turf (G1), 3+, 12f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Another race where draw heavily impacts decision-making with Real Solution hurt by extreme gate. The Fugue oozes class with these and the added distance versus last year's F&M Turf choice should help her. Indy Point poised for big effort. Point of Entry win would be remarkable accomplishment for Team Shug. Twilight Eclipse has knocked on doors all year and gets Leparoux which could be a good fit..

Most Likely: #7 The Fugue 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #9 Indy Point 9-2 3rd
Best Value: #3 Twilight Eclipse 20-1 6th
Exotics Use: #8 Point of Entry 4-1 4th


10th: 30th Breeders' Cup Sprint (G1), 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

I don't want to get maudlin, but have to say the sadness and unfairness of Points Offthebench being absent from these proceedings will make this a hard event to watch. Pace will be of the leatherneck variety and though one or another of the front-enders can be track-aided and stay on, stalkers and closers should be able to get involved..

Most Likely: #9 Secret Circle 4-1 WON ($7.00)
Best Value: #12 Laugh Track 20-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Justin Phillip 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Gentleman's Bet 8-1 3rd
Super Add: #6 Bahamian Squall 10-1 6th


11th: 30th Breeders' Cup Mile (G1), 3+, 1m-T (DD)

Wise Dan wins. After that, there's no shortage of pricey inclusions with which to have fun..

Most Likely: #8 Wise Dan 1-1 WON ($3.60)
Best Value: #2 Silentio 20-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 No Jet Lag 8-1 6th
Exotics Use: #10 Za Approval 15-1 2nd


12th: 30th Breeders' Cup Classic, 3+, 10f (Super Hi-5)

As I wrote in Xpressbet BC Wagering Guide, race seems to be calling for an alternate view with so many familiar players looking interchangeable. I'll key off the Coolmore invader who is classiest entrant and while not conformed perfectly for the main track, is certainly bred for it being out of Union Rags sister. Has cruising speed and staying style and as long as dirt in the face doesn't make him recoil early, has big chance at nice number. May not be Giant's Causeway, but he's no doorknob either. Ian Wilkes, who is an easy read, exuding confidence with defending winner Fort Larned. Flat Out looks better physically than he did earlier in the summer and gets services of Rosario back. Palace Malice is the best 3yo hope though Moreno has exceeded expectations the last two starts and may be the speed that's in space in the stretch..

Most Likely: #5 Declaration of War 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Fort Larned 6-1 4th
Next Best: #12 Flat Out 12-1 8th
Exotics Use: #8 Palace Malice 10-1 6th
Super/Hi-5: #4 Moreno 15-1 10th


<$200 P6 Play:

7: 9-12
8: 1-3-4-13-14
9: 7-9
10: 9
11: 8
12: 5-7-12

2x5x2x1x1x3 = 60 x $2 = $120


<$75 P4 Play:

9: 3-7-8-9
10: 1-3-6-7-9-12
11: 8
12: 4-5-7-8-9-12

4x6x1x6 = 144 x .50 = $72


Let's get lucky!
Steve

[a_rookie]

3 12 / 3 / 7 / 9 / 8 10 / 5

Thanks Steve and

[Kasept]

SA SCR/CHG'S

[tanner12oz]

Good one steve