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#1
10-07-2006, 07:32 AM
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Jcgc
Ok, after getting myself over the fact that the JCGC had only 4 horses and was unbettable I looked at it firmly last night because it ends the pick-6 with the carryover.
I'm not so sure that Dylan Thomas doesn't have some degree of a chance here. Granted its not a big chance, but i will say hes the only one who can beat Bern. Wanderin Boy is a nice horse, and he will make the lead no doubt, but at some point Bernadini will engage him and they will hook up or Bern will go by. Andromeda simply comes from too far out if it and I can't see him winning. But Dylan is interesting. I was aware of who he was and what he was doing but the more I hear from teh usually reserved O'Brien the less I think he was sent here only to try and beat the archrival Sheikh's horse and moreso because they honestly think he can succeed on dirt. I know its a semantical difference but I still think its relevant. He adds lasix, and being a grand son of Danzig gives him some hope of accepting the dirt. He also adds Johnny V. Hes won the Irish Derby and The Irish Champion Stakes and was beaten only a head in the Epsom Derby. Hes not just some bum that someone invented to try and come over. I think hes worth covering on a saver ticket in the pik-3 and pik-4 and pik-6 if you can afford it. I'd still like to see Bernadini get looked in the eye, just once. 
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#2
10-07-2006, 07:46 AM
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Good luck today Oracle. There are lots of other races at Bel, Keeneland and SA, so I am not all that bummed out over the JCGC having only 4 horses. No need to play every race anyways. Its still a nice card.
You worried the tiniest bit about the Yankees?
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#3
10-07-2006, 08:39 AM
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Stick to something you know about. Dylan Thomas is not bred to run well on the dirt. Bernardini wins by 8-10 once again. Of course, you are doing your usual going out on a limb to make yourself look smart if Dylan Thomas wins, but if he loses you will tell us you knew Bernardini would win. Your act has gotten pretty transparent. Go ahead and waste your money adding Dylan Thomas to your ticket. Dylan is using this as a prep. He isn't even totally tightened for this one.
Bernardini isn't a paper tiger like the NY Yankees. He is the real deal. Last edited by Nostradamus : 10-07-2006 at 08:41 AM.
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#4
10-07-2006, 08:45 AM
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Transparent? Now that is hysterical coming from a shill like you. What happened to the Showing Up is the best grass horse threads that you and your coward buddies treated us to for months. One loss and you blow town. Nothing transparent here at all. I said I'm adding Dylan as a COVER bet on pik's. I still expect that bern will win, lets say I've got it 90-10 % chance. But the amount of money that will be bet keying Bern as a single will be astronomical. Its prudent to take one cover bet stab with another horse in there because in the case of a Bern loss the payouts will just be incredible. I don't think I'm speaking anything but logic and common sense, which is why you don't grasp it.
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#5
10-07-2006, 08:48 AM
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It is not prudent to bet DT. There is nothing to indicate he will even beat Wanderin Boy. NYRA screwed this up by keeping the JCGC as the final leg. They should have started earlier and thrown out the JCGC. The pick 6 will pay under $1000.
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#6
10-07-2006, 08:42 AM
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#7
10-07-2006, 08:46 AM
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Good luck betting $1000 into the pick 6 to win $500. Adding Dylan Thomas is like throwing money away. Bet with reason, not with dislike of a trainer.
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#8
10-07-2006, 09:06 AM
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I don't dislike him, and I think he actually desreves more credit for his job with Bern than he gets from people. He doesn't get in his way, and many trainers would. He realizes he has a superior animal and trains him that way. You don't see him speed drilling the horse in bullet times, or working him in company. He keeps him on a 5 furlong maintenance drill program that keeps him sharp and fit enough to keep an edge, yet doesn't send him over the top. That may not sound like the high praise I'm giving him, but it is high praise. Lots of trainers have had very talented animals and ruined them with speed drills and overwork that melts them or causes an injury. Quite frankly despite this horses talent, had he not had a Albertrani training him who knows if he would ever been this good, or kept as sharp as he has. I really admire what hes done with this horse and he desrves a lot of credit, more than he gets from the press as if he is just a footnote in the story. But its my theory that perhaps the pressure and daily obsession with a once in a lifetime horse has hurt the performance of his other horses. He won 3 races at the spa, two with Bern and had a miserable ROI and win rate. In July at Belmont he was icy as well. Now at this meet hes floating at about 10% with two wins and one of them a 1-2 shot. If you've bet this guy and keyed him the last three months you have about 6 wins total and 3 of em are 1-2 shots. I think its prudent to keep tossing out his non Bern horses and I have the proof, perecentages, and ROI on him the last three months as FACTS that you cannot disprove, not opinions. Unless you like 9-10% trainers over a three month span who constantly get bet down with short priced horses and who have three of 6 wins with 1-2 shots. So whose the dummy, me or you? 
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#9
10-07-2006, 09:10 AM
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#10
10-07-2006, 11:25 AM
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Hybrid Mode
