How would a Chrome TC win affect breeding/bloodstock?

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

on breeding and sales in the future..the moneyball-esk breeding and non normal route .farm vs big sales ring ie keeneland or fasig route..36 years of huge money and the proper way of doing things or at least the historic way..may be put on its head on saturday..any thoughts?

[Indian Charlie]

He doesn't have the raw speed of a Seattle Slew, something I would think is paramount in a cheaply bred stallion prospect.

Someone might be willing to pay big $ for him, but I doubt he'll be a smash hit.

As for him making an impact on the breeding industry in other ways, I don't see it.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

you dont people will think twice about spending 300 k on a yearling when they can just breed in house or much cheaper and get the same results..possibly

[hockey2315]

It's not like this is the first cheap horse to ever do well. . . I don't think it'll have any effect at all.

[Rudeboyelvis]

The biggest winner in all of this, win or lose, will be Harris Farms. Lucky Pulpit has produced Rousing Sermon and Luckarack in addition to California Chrome, and was standing for just 2K in 2013 I believe.

If he wins he'll never see another racetrack, which is anything but good for horse racing. I would guess he would get decent freshman book of mares, but not sure if the pedigree is there to assume he will command an extraordinary price. If he doesn't win, i think the pressure would be off the owners to rush him away, and maybe give him the summer off and prep for a fall campaign.

[FATPIANO]

he will be retired right after the race, if he wins

[PatCummings]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

on breeding and sales in the future..the moneyball-esk breeding and non normal route .farm vs big sales ring ie keeneland or fasig route..36 years of huge money and the proper way of doing things or at least the historic way..may be put on its head on saturday..any thoughts?

I hope it puts some of the big breeding info people back in their place. Listening to them talk about a great-great-great-great-greatmother of the Derby winner, as if THAT was the cause of what we see now (or something similar), is tiring. Every horse has a story, and we've gotten to a point where there is some regal distant breeding everywhere.

If anything, this should reinforce the fact that good horses can, in fact, come from anywhere, and that you don't have to spend a big fortune to make a small fortune.

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by PatCummings

If anything, this should reinforce the fact that good horses can, in fact, come from anywhere, and that you don't have to spend a big fortune to make a small fortune.

As much as the story of Claifornia Chrome is endearing, it's pretty clear that he is a freak (and those do come along every once in a while). At a time where the industry has a large unwanted horse problem, encouraging people to breed mares that ought not to be bred (of course, that can be subjective) to relatively non-descript stallions because they might get the next California Chrome would not be good for the industry. These are the type of horses that often get "no bid" at a sale.

[Indian Charlie]

I don't think Elusive Quality was even at 50k before SJ. He was quite a bit lower if memory serves me correctly.

Just looked it up. 10k

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

I don't think Elusive Quality was even at 50k before SJ. He was quite a bit lower if memory serves me correctly.

Just looked it up. 10k

He started at $10,000, but he was a "hot" sire by June 2004.

Here is a story about Elusive Quality from January 2005 discussing the rise of his stud fee: http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...lusive-quality

[my miss storm cat]

Originally Posted by PatCummings

I hope it puts some of the big breeding info people back in their place. Listening to them talk about a great-great-great-great-greatmother of the Derby winner, as if THAT was the cause of what we see now (or something similar), is tiring. Every horse has a story, and we've gotten to a point where there is some regal distant breeding everywhere.

If anything, this should reinforce the fact that good horses can, in fact, come from anywhere, and that you don't have to spend a big fortune to make a small fortune.

That was very well stated... almost a page from the King Glorious On Pedigree handbook. Well done.

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

if chrome wins the t.c what effect will it have on breeding and sales in the future...

No idea but if you had asked what the cultural effect would be?

Easy.

It would be the record-setting spike in prescriptions and sales of anti-depressants due to the vast number of predominantly older white males on horsie boards lapsing into a deep and collective depression (stemming from the arrival of the newly-registered, self-designated Chromies who will take over).

(The boards, not the world).

[Arletta]

Originally Posted by my miss storm cat

That was very well stated... almost a page from the King Glorious On Pedigree handbook. Well done.


No idea but if you had asked what the cultural effect would be?

Easy.

It would be the record-setting spike in prescriptions and sales of anti-depressants due to the vast number of predominantly older white males on horsie boards lapsing into a deep and collective depression (stemming from the arrival of the newly-registered, self-designated Chromies who will take over).

(The boards, not the world).

We won't mention any names though

[my miss storm cat]

Originally Posted by Arletta

We won't mention any names though

No we wont and isn't it interesting that the Zenyatta girls (well in my mind they are mostly female but who knows!) pretty much stayed in their safe zones but something tells me if he wins that won't be the case.

It's all good.

[robfla]

ESPN article on this subject today:

http://tinyurl.com/lbq3b64

[Indian Charlie]

It would also cause record sales of maxi pads.

[senator L]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

on breeding and sales in the future..the moneyball-esk breeding and non normal route .farm vs big sales ring ie keeneland or fasig route..36 years of huge money and the proper way of doing things or at least the historic way..may be put on its head on saturday..any thoughts?

They'll keep racing him after a two month break. I don't
think the decision will come until the end of his 3 yr old season. If he keeps winning races they get the cash and his stock keeps rising. These guys are smart!

[Frost King]

And if he loses, after winning the Triple Crown against run of the mill older horses his value will go down. What people fail to realize, you could have the fastest donkey in the world. That is faster than any thoroughbred, you would still not breed to the donkey. Breeding is about percentages. The chance that California Chrome has these genes out of his parents is one in one million chance, that everything aligned itself right up. Just look at Empire Maker, he was a stallion prospect before he was even weaned because of his dam, and the siblings he has. California Chrome, could be the breeding version of the Green Monkey. Which big farm, in today's economy is going to risk, that kind of money on a horse that has outlier genes, to pass on? It is a nice story, not matter how you dress the pig, it is still a pig.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by Frost King

And if he loses, after winning the Triple Crown against run of the mill older horses his value will go down. What people fail to realize, you could have the fastest donkey in the world. That is faster than any thoroughbred, you would still not breed to the donkey. Breeding is about percentages. The chance that California Chrome has these genes out of his parents is one in one million chance, that everything aligned itself right up. Just look at Empire Maker, he was a stallion prospect before he was even weaned because of his dam, and the siblings he has. California Chrome, could be the breeding version of the Green Monkey. Which big farm, in today's economy is going to risk, that kind of money on a horse that has outlier genes, to pass on? It is a nice story, not matter how you dress the pig, it is still a pig.

He is the first foal out of a Not For Love mare, and by a stallion that's never seen quality breeding stock and still manages to throw decent cal-breds.

So the argument about percentages goes out the window when you peel it back, doesn't it?
I agree with IC that he is really the tallest pigmy of this crop, but I don't necessarily buy the argument that he won't be successful stallion because he doesn't possess commercial bloodlines.