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#1
06-14-2014, 08:46 AM
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6/14: Churchill Downs (3rd-9th)
Left $1,300 P5 on table Friday at Churchill but crazy $39.00 mutuel on 8-1 ML Trace Creek propelled the day and recouped good portion of Belmont Day losses. This weekend not as big the one previous, but Foster Night card at Downs on heels of $26k Belmont C/O and Shoemaker/Vanity SA doubleheader should make for another fun 10 day..
CHURCHILL DOWNS POST-SCRATCHES 3rd: OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD) Terrific lineup to start the serious portion of the Downs card. Carroll entry and both Arnolds (including old pal Depeche Chat) are well priced with Catalano's Marine Patrol appearing the one to beat.. Most Likely: #9 Marine Patrol 3-1 WON ($5.20) Best Value: #2 Dream Man 6-1 4th Next Best: #4 Depeche Chat 9-2 2nd Exotics Use: #3 San Antone 8-1 3rd 4th: OC/N3X, 3+, 1m (Single 6, P4, P3, DD) Strong cast of G3 or top level ALW types assemble here, a group with nearly $2,000,000 in earnings led by good ol' Sabercat. One or more here looks capable of isolated big efforts, but steady Pick of the Litter always runs his race.. Most Likely: #3 Pick of the Litter 3-1 2nd Next Best: #5 Carve 9-5 WON ($5.00) Exotics Use: #4 Guilt Trip 2-1 3rd Super Add: #1e Tafel entry 6-1 4th/6th 5th: MSW, 3+, 9f-T (P5, P3, DD) Very difficult group to separate with more than half the field capable (1e-2-5-6-8-9-11).. Most Likely: #5 Cov 7-2 5th Best Value: #11 Blarp 10-1 9th Next Best: #1a Highball 4-1 WON ($7.60) Exotics Use: #9 Penobscot 15-1 6th 6th: Matt Winn (G3), 3yo, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD) Derby trophy will be handed out to Chrome owners tonight and appropriate that stake named for the man that saved the Downs and made the race what it is be on the card. Matt Winn saw the first 75 runnings of the Derby and after leading a buyout of the troubled oval at the turn of the 20th century, crafted the 'Run for the Roses' into the preeminent stakes race in North America, effectively changing the landscape of American Thoroughbred Racing. Excellent set involved here with an interesting pace scenario that starts with need-the-lead Almost Famous who is 3/3 when in front early but 4/0-0-0 when unable to secure the point. Presence of Rise Up and The Admiral seem to assure challenges, which leads me to believe we want those that will be stalking and closing. Ulanbator at anything near the 12-1 appears the most employable.. Best Value: #7 Ulanbator 12-1 2nd Next Best: #2 Tapiture 9-5 WON ($4.00) Exotics Use: #6 The Admiral 8-1 7th Super Add: #4 Conquest Titan 10-1 6th 7th: Fleur de Lis H. (G2), F&M-3+, 9f (P3, DD) Another pace question to decipher here with how heated Baby, Ondine and Fiftyshades make the front end. Extra 16th od a mile has been undoing for On Fire Baby before and doubt she breaks through here unless left completely alone. Flashy American (7-2) relishes the 9f and could sit an ideal trip off the speeds.. Best Value: #6 Flashy American 7-2 2nd Next Best: #5 Fiftyshadesofhay 9-5 3rd Exotics Use: #4 On Fire Baby 8-5 5th <$50 P4 Play: All A Entries 1 $1.00 pick P4: 3,5 with 5,11 with 7 with 6 - $4.00 A's with One B 2 $0.50 pick P4: 1,4 with 5,11 with 7 with 6 - $2.00 3 $0.50 pick P4: 3,5 with 1 with 7 with 6 - $1.00 4 $0.50 pick P4: 3,5 with 5,11 with 2,6 with 6 - $4.00 5 $0.50 pick P4: 3,5 with 5,11 with 7 with 4,5 - $4.00 A's with Two B's 6 $0.50 pick P4: 1,4 with 1 with 7 with 6 - $1.00 7 $0.50 pick P4: 1,4 with 5,11 with 2,6 with 6 - $4.00 8 $0.50 pick P4: 1,4 with 5,11 with 7 with 4,5 - $4.00 9 $0.50 pick P4: 3,5 with 1 with 2,6 with 6 - $2.00 10 $0.50 pick P4: 3,5 with 1 with 7 with 4,5 - $2.00 11 $0.50 pick P4: 3,5 with 5,11 with 2,6 with 4,5 - $8.00 A's with One C 12 $0.50 pick P4: 2,6 with 5,11 with 7 with 6 - $2.00 13 $0.50 pick P4: 3,5 with 8,9 with 7 with 6 - $2.00 14 $0.50 pick P4: 3,5 with 5,11 with 3,4,5 with 6 - $6.00 15 $0.50 pick P4: 3,5 with 5,11 with 7 with 1,3 - $4.00 Total: $50.00 8th: Stephen Foster (G1), 3+, 9f (P3, DD) Obligated to bet against Will Take Charge until proven he's come back around and Revolutionary won't get pace meltdown he saw at PIM. Stall effective pointing for spots and Departing figures to get first run on leaders. Long River won't be anywhere close to the 15-1 ML and looks to break through here.. Best Value: #8 Long River 15-1 5th Next Best: #6 Departing 9-2 3rd Exotics Use: #3 Moonshine Mullin 10-1 WON ($22.00) Super Add: #7 Golden Ticket 8-1 6th 9th: Regret (G3), 3yo-F, 9f-T (P3, DD) Very well-matched group including some moving to lawn for first time.. Most Likely: #4 A Little Bit Sassy 7-2 4th-DQ'd from win Next Best: #1 Kiss Moon 6-1 3rd Exotics Use: #6 Aurelia's Belle 6-1 WON via DQ ($8.80) Super Add: #7 Istanford 9-2 7th <$60 P5 Play: All A Entries 1 $1.50 pick P5: 5 with 7 with 6 with 6,8 with 4 - $3.00 A's with One B 2 $1.00 pick P5: 1,11 with 7 with 6 with 6,8 with 4 - $4.00 3 $1.00 pick P5: 5 with 2,6 with 6 with 6,8 with 4 - $4.00 4 $1.00 pick P5: 5 with 7 with 5 with 6,8 with 4 - $2.00 5 $1.00 pick P5: 5 with 7 with 6 with 4 with 4 - $1.00 6 $1.00 pick P5: 5 with 7 with 6 with 6,8 with 1,6,7 - $6.00 A's with Two B's 7 $0.50 pick P5: 1,11 with 2,6 with 6 with 6,8 with 4 - $4.00 8 $0.50 pick P5: 1,11 with 7 with 5 with 6,8 with 4 - $2.00 9 $0.50 pick P5: 1,11 with 7 with 6 with 4 with 4 - $1.00 10 $0.50 pick P5: 1,11 with 7 with 6 with 6,8 with 1,6,7 - $6.00 11 $0.50 pick P5: 5 with 2,6 with 5 with 6,8 with 4 - $2.00 12 $0.50 pick P5: 5 with 2,6 with 6 with 4 with 4 - $1.00 13 $0.50 pick P5: 5 with 2,6 with 6 with 6,8 with 1,6,7 - $6.00 14 $0.50 pick P5: 5 with 7 with 5 with 4 with 4 - $0.50 15 $0.50 pick P5: 5 with 7 with 5 with 6,8 with 1,6,7 - $3.00 16 $0.50 pick P5: 5 with 7 with 6 with 4 with 1,6,7 - $1.50 A's with One C 17 $0.50 pick P5: 6,8,9 with 7 with 6 with 6,8 with 4 - $3.00 18 $0.50 pick P5: 5 with 3,4,5 with 6 with 6,8 with 4 - $3.00 19 $0.50 pick P5: 5 with 7 with 1,2,4 with 6,8 with 4 - $3.00 20 $0.50 pick P5: 5 with 7 with 6 with 1,2,3,5,7,9 with 4 - $3.00 Total: $59.00 <$60 P4 Play: All A Entries 1 $1.00 pick P4: 2,7 with 6 with 6,8 with 4 - $4.00 A's with One B 2 $0.50 pick P4: 6 with 6 with 6,8 with 4 - $1.00 3 $0.50 pick P4: 2,7 with 1,4,5 with 6,8 with 4 - $6.00 4 $0.50 pick P4: 2,7 with 6 with 4 with 4 - $1.00 5 $0.50 pick P4: 2,7 with 6 with 6,8 with 1,6,7 - $6.00 A's with Two B's 6 $0.50 pick P4: 6 with 1,4,5 with 6,8 with 4 - $3.00 7 $0.50 pick P4: 6 with 6 with 4 with 4 - $0.50 8 $0.50 pick P4: 6 with 6 with 6,8 with 1,6,7 - $3.00 9 $0.50 pick P4: 2,7 with 1,4,5 with 4 with 4 - $3.00 10 $0.50 pick P4: 2,7 with 1,4,5 with 6,8 with 1,6,7 - $18.00 11 $0.50 pick P4: 2,7 with 6 with 4 with 1,6,7 - $3.00 A's with One C 12 $0.50 pick P4: 3,4,5 with 6 with 6,8 with 4 - $3.00 13 $0.50 pick P4: 2,7 with 2 with 6,8 with 4 - $2.00 14 $0.50 pick P4: 2,7 with 6 with 1,2,3,5,7,9 with 4 - $6.00 Total: $59.50 Good luck! Steve
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 06-14-2014 at 10:32 PM. 
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#3
06-14-2014, 10:59 AM
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Quote:
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#4
06-14-2014, 01:06 PM
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CD SCR/ CHG'S: http://goo.gl/wPKLDM
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#5
06-14-2014, 03:47 PM
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wreong number
pick of little is 3
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#7
06-14-2014, 08:14 PM
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Any news in sabrecat? Looked rough
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#8
06-14-2014, 08:50 PM
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Quote:
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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