Who is most likely to knock off Bernardini?

SniperSB23 · #1 10-11-2006, 10:42 AM

This thread is NOT to rank the horses in the Classic but is intended to speculate on who has the best chance of knocking off Bernardini and winning the race. My opinion:

1. David Junior - We know this is a world class horse at ten furlongs and the pedigree suggests he should handle the dirt. Hate the layoff but if he really does benefit from it then he has the talent to take down 'Dini. Probably the only horse that could do it on talent.

2. Sun King - If you can't beat Bernardini on talent then a speed duel seems the next most logical way it could happen. Sun King has run a couple very big races this year in the Met Mile and Whitney and if the speed collapses he seems the most likely to fire from the back of the pack and win the race.

3. Invasor - Fired off the layoff in the Suburban and is undefeated outside of Dubai. Could sit off the pace and pounce at the end especially if Bernardini gets a rocky trip.

4. Lava Man - Assuming he doesn't have a problem with Churchill he still has a lot to overcome. Hard to imagine in a 14 horse field that he could get very comfortable on the front end and it is tough to imagine he'd get a dream stalking trip. If all goes well and he can improve on his California form (a big if) then he has an outside shot.

5. Giacomo - If it isn't Bernardini or any of the four I listed above then the only thing I can imagine would be a repeat of the '05 Derby where even the closers went too fast early and had nothing left in the tank at the end and a plodder like Giacomo was able to pass them all in the stretch. We all know he likes Churchill so why just settle for the most unlikely horse to win the Derby and instead be the most unlikely horse to win the Derby and the Classic. Internet forums would most likely explode.

#2 10-11-2006, 10:43 AM

One of three horses, Lava Man, Invasor, or Sun King. Have to see which Euros are going as well.

Revolution · #3 10-11-2006, 10:46 AM

Giacomo? Unless he is running 9f and Bernardini 10f he has no chance.

The only competition for Bernardini is going to be Secretariat's track record. I think it will be close.

randallscott35 · #4 10-11-2006, 10:47 AM

Easily Invasor. None of the others make me think its possible.

ArlJim78 · #5 10-11-2006, 10:57 AM

Invasor is the one with the best shot IMO.

Gander · #6 10-11-2006, 11:15 AM

I'd say Lava Man and Sun King, if the trip scenarios work out right.
I hope Europe sends a better challenger than Dylan Thomas. He would have been better served running in one of the allowance or claiming races earlier in the day.

Lava Man- If he is fed his Wheaties and gets a moderate pace and he breaks on top or sits right behind a possible rabbbit.

Sun King- If Bernardini moves too early into a wicked pace and Sun King is trained properly from now until Nov 4th, which we have every reason to believe he will be.