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#1
10-19-2014, 01:41 AM
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WO/KEE/BEL Sunday Oct. 19th
WOODBINE
Race 1: #7 Joshie: Well bred and had some good works when first showing up on the track. Sire does well with 2yo debutants. Trainer doesn't excel with FTS but his one recent win with one was at a big price. Race 4: #1 Hillaby: A no show last time but was caught wide and at her works immediately prior and after that try were extremely slow which leads me to believe that maybe something was up. Easily the one to beat based on her two prior runs. #6 Aragorn Ami: May have needed her return run in the Algoma and clearly didn't handle the turf last time out. Prior to that she was 2 for 2 to start her career and if this SW can return to that form she can challenge the favourite. Race 6: The two Euros tower over the rest of the field. While #4 Brown Panther is 5 for 7 at 12f, those wins have been against easier and I just feel that he has more quality over even further marathon distances. #7 Hillstar is a Royal Ascot winner over 12f and while he was soundly beaten by BP, that was on a soft track as the favourite. Even though he did win a G2 at SA on BC weekend in 2012, Stoute and Moore have much more experience overseas than BP's connections and so, odds aside, I'm leaning towards Hillstar. #8 Pyrite Mountain: Much improved switching to the Pletcher barn and could potentially be coming into this off three straight wins rather than three narrow loses. Spencer picks up the ride and although he was entered and scratched from an ALW on Thursday I'm keeping an eye on this one. #9 Big Blue Kitten: Best form of the locals but his last was just so dull, Beyer aside. Rosario hops aboard looking for a spark. #2 will bounce back but unsure if he is G1 quality. #10 is another for the exotics. Race 7: #2 Denim Bay: Regressed second off the year layoff but that was also on turf. His worst prior race was his only other try on the grass and he then followed that up with a win switching to the poly. His return run wasn't that bad and he took money that day. Moran sticks as a tote explosion looms. #4 Brew On the Beach: Tough beat in his only sprint try where he should never have lost. However, that was off a brief layoff and a repeat of that run gives him a shot here. #1 Spanish River: Two runs with the blinkers on have been by far his best to date. 3yo can continue to improve and while bouncing off two bigs runs is a concern he's worth tossing in at a price. #3 could go all the way...#8 comes off a long layoff, is the one to beat on form but iffy on the return. Race 8: Nearctic has been downgraded to a G2 this year and after looking at the field it's easy to see why. #5 Excaper: Hasn't been able to consistently do it in the big ones but all his runs this year are easily good enough to win this. There is other speed in here but I don't expect any sort of cavalry charge and so he should get a great trip. Seems to be working superbly as well. #8 Black Hornet: Question marks surrounding his potential ability on the turf but regardless this guy is a bullet. Not disgraced when beaten as the fav giving weight last out and continues to post bullets in the mornings. Extremely dangerous at a price if he takes to the surface. #7 Caspar Netscher: Originally wanted no part of this one, but this field is quite weak, and even more so when considering the quality of sprinters in the UK. Hasn't progressed since winning back to back G2s as a 2yo but he might not need to against these. Race 9: Trying to figure out why #10 Cat Lore is 20-1 ML. Handles the surfaces as she's worked quickly in the mornings here. Caught extremely wide in barn debut off a short layoff last time. Beyers and BRIS ratings aren't that far off. Overlay. #7 Disco Barbie: Shipped up north early two get two works in over the surface. I think the G2 placing is a bit flattering as she only had 112 lbs..., but this isn't much tougher. I was with #1 last time but there is speed to her outside and it's likely the duel might get her on empty early. Race 10: #7 Wall of Sound: Shipping mate of Brown Panther but she comes in with a good shot. Hasn't been keeping the company of her rival Europeans but her only two poor runs came in wet conditions. Only 2.5f lengths behind Tasaday and that is no mean feat. A big step up in class but there is a little bit of quality on the dam's side so this isn't necessarily out of reach. This is a front runner in a race devoid of early speed and I would be wary about leaving this longshot out. #3 Just The Judge: I know she was a solid 3rd in the Beverly D which has turned out to be a key race, but I just am not convinced she's as effective going longer around turns as she is on a flat mile. Deserved fav but no sure thing. #6 Deceptive Vision: This royally bred filly is the best of the locals. Extra furlong will be relished. Has tactical speed. Would be my top pick but I'm concerned about the lack of work since Oct. 5. #4 Odeliz: Consistency reigns with this filly but she's struggled to find the win line recently. Maybe Moore can get the job done. $0.20 Early Pick Four Race 4: 1, 6 Race 5: ALL (9) Race 6: 4, 7, 8, 9 Race 7: 1, 2, 3, 4, 8 $72.00 $1 Play: 1, 6/ALL (9)/7/2, 4 = $36 $0.20 Late Pick Four Race 8: 5, 7, 8 Race 9: 7, 10 Race 10: 3, 4, 6, 7 Race 11: ALL (11) $52.80 $1 Play: 5/7, 10/3, 7/ALL (11) = $44 KEENELAND Race 3: #1 Country Drive: Unraced dam is a half to a pair of G1 winners routing, albeit on dirt, and he gets turf route influence from his sire. Not far off the winner on debut and that one has twice run second in G1s this season. Presumably bled off the layoff. Seven solid works since coming Stateside and this one is live. Race 5: #3 Eton Blue: Focus on the fast main track races and his form becomes much better. One turn winner at GP and I like the fact that he cuts back after hanging off a layoff. Bravo comes in to ride and he's gotten the best out of him. #1 Texas Two Step: Hasn't been seen in a while but has had some quick breezes in Delaware. Jones should have him ready with the shades on. #7 Cha Mono: Couldn't handle Kentucky Downs but his prior form is consistent. Just wonder if he's good enough. Race 6: #7 Vapor Cloud: Well-bred and closed well off a slow pace in her debut. Will improve and Block has a good clip with 2nd time starters, but I'm a little put off by the fact Geroux, who has been riding for the barn, isn't on this one, especially since he doesn't have a mount in the race. Price boost? #12 Silverville: Only a neck behind Jennifer J. who came back to beat a few of these and her run next out was pretty decent. Should continue to improve. #10 Shift Colors: Her first two turf starts were solid, and last time she was in an impossible position with Lasix for the first time. Working well for this and can turn it around. #1 La Majestique: Completely blocked in her try against some of today's rivals. Other starts, although against weaker, have been good enough. Also consider... #8 English Kiss: Debut wasn't bad considering the slow start and distance. Don't know how much work was put in on the farm before her return and may see her true colours this time around. #9 Engaginglee: Money-burner does have the best form but has had her chances. Romans and Lanerie are icy at Keeneland since 2013. #13 Oaks is SCR... Substituting in #4 in my P4. This is a wide, wide open race and going deep seems a must. Race 7: #6 Riyadh: Debut win was as impressive on the eye as they come. A little slow at the start, gradually improved position, had to steady his momentum, tried to slip through the rail and then got ping-ponged between the foe trying to pocket him and the rail, re-rallied to an easy win under a hand ride while coming home in fractions of 12- and 24.1. Walsh has done very well with limited runners at the meet and this one sure has talent. #7 Proven Warrior: Ran big numbers out West without finishing on top but got the breakthrough when switching to dirt at FG. Off for 10 months but he is working well to say the least. #4 Major Dude: His two best runs have been his two tries sprinting on a fast dirt track. He rates a chance based on those two efforts. Race 8: #15 Gathering is SCR... #2 Cat's Claw: Impressive winner of the Waya and her last two haven't been run to suit. This one might not be either and that is the concern. #13 Caroline Thomas: Seems that she's always coming late and the wire comes too soon. However, she's proven she can stay the trip and is working well at Belmont for this. Not far off #12 when she was in form and she beat my top pick, albeit getting 7 lbs. #8 Left a Message: With the SCR of my top pick I've gone looking for another to use and on second glance I'll give this one another try. She was not at all ready for her return off a long layoff and her previous long distance tries have been pretty good---she was second in this last year. Will be much higher odds than she has been in recent times. #5 Frivolous: She's been holding her own against second-tier Distaff foes (a length behind Fiftyshadesofhay, ahead of On Fire Baby, etc.) and her turf runs have been decent as well. Hasn't raced past 9.5f and while on paper it seems like she had distance problems that day her effort was actually pretty good. Moved wide and early and lost a lot of ground so the fact she had nothing left in the stretch is not as bothersome. Missing a work but is worth another chance at a price. Race 9: #4 Oceanwave: Had quite a bit of late interest on debut. Strong work since then and Catalano is due to get it going. #2 Shopaholic is SCR... Will add #3 in my P4. $0.60 Pick Five Race 5: 1, 3 Race 6: 7, 8, 10, 12 Race 7: 4, 6, 7 Race 8: 2, 5, 8, 13 Race 9: 4 $57.60 $0.60 Late Pick Four Race 6: 1, 4, 7, 8, 10, 12 Race 7: 4, 6, 7 Race 8: 2, 5, 8, 13 Race 9: 3, 4 $86.40 I don't like playing numerous tracks at once, but I glanced over BELMONT and noticed I had a playback in #2 Willow U in the nightcap. Up close to a fast pace and held on well. Steadied off heels when beaten, although still battling, which might have cost him 3rd. This looks a good spot for him. Quickly put together this P4: 1, 7, 8, 9, 11/3, 9, 10/1, 7, 8/2 = $27.00 for $0.60 Good luck! Last edited by Kitan : 10-19-2014 at 01:20 PM. 
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#2
10-19-2014, 09:34 AM
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thanks for the write up Kitan....looking forward to some play at Woodbine today.
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