11/29: Churchill (9th-12th); Aqueduct (7th-10th); Hawthorne (Gold Cup)

[Kasept]

CHURCHILL DOWNS


POST-SCRATCHES


9th: 71st Golden Rod (G2), 2yo-F, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 West Coast Belle 4-1 WON ($5.20)
Best Value: #3 I'm a Chatterbox 20-1 4th
Next Best: #2 No Fault of Mine 9-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Heart's Song 12-1 3rd

$1 Exacta (8-2) Paid $13.20
$1 Trifecta (8-2-6) Paid $104.90
$1 Superfecta (8-2-6-3) Paid $838.90


10th: OC/N1X, 1m, 2yo (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #12 Dortmund 5-2 WON ($2.80)
Next Best: #2 Silver Ride 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #6 Jack Tripp 5-1 8th
Exotics Use: #11 Bottom Line 12-1 6th


11th: 88th KY Jockey Club (G2), 2yo, 8.5f (DD)

Most Likely: #9 Lord Nelson 5-2 5th
Next Best: #5 El Kabeir 7-2 WON ($16.60)
Best Value: #1 Sky Hero 6-1 8th
Exotics Use: #2 Eagle 12-1 3rd
Super Add: #11 Flashaway 15-1 6th


12th: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f (Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #7 Tale of Verve 6-1 3rd
Best Value: #5 Bravo Charlie 20-1 2nd
Next Best: #9 Curlino 2-1 WON ($4.60)
Exotics Use: #6 Pro Daddy 8-1 8th
Super/Hi-5: #8 Mr Moneypants 12-1 7th

$1 Exacta (9-5) Paid $80.50
$1 Trifecta (9-5-7) Paid $544.50


P4 Grid:

9: 2-3-8 (A), - (B), 4-5-6 (C)
10: 12 (A), 2-6 (B), 4-11 (C)
11: 5-9 (A), 1-2 (B), 6-8-11 (C)
12: 5-7 (A), 6-9 (B), 1-2-3-10 (C)

$0.50 Pick-4 (8/12/5/9,13,14,15,16) Paid $60.40


AQUEDUCT


POST-SCRATCHES


7th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD)

As good a Pick 4 sequence as you'll see with 3 terrific stakes and this wildly well-matched ALW field to start it. Likely need to spend more than typical quad budget, but should be well worth it. Pace looks assured with fave Pulling G's having to go from inside with Celebrated Talent setting upon him immediately and Waco pressing up close. After the obvious players, stalking-closing prices 12-1 Soldier Inthe Rain (1st off move to B. Brown, adds Lasix), 15-1 Bernardo (Runs well fresh, 5/1-1-1 on AQU main) and 12-1 All My Memories (Dangerous Servis/Mr Amore barn, turns back from mile try) all have chance. Charlie Baker's Joking (8-1) gets class tested in return to ALW company, but has won his last two (S/ALW & $35k/N2L) and probably sits a nice trip while 4th early. Only 30-1 Howl looks without chance..

Most Likely: #1 Pulling G's 6-5 2nd
Next Best: #7 Waco 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #2 Soldier Inthe Rain 12-1 WON ($20.40)
Exotics Use: #6 Bernardo 15-1 5th


8th: 93rd Demoiselle (G2), 2yo-F, 9f (P3, DD)

Todd Pletcher (Angela Renee) looks for an eye-crossing 4th straight Demoiselle, but dreadful BCup follow up to crystalline Chandelier leaves lingering impression. Expect she'll be right and ready for good effort at 9f trip she should enjoy, noting her full brother To Honor and Serve won '10 Remsen. Unusual to begin with that Bobby Ribaudo produces 'win early' type, but modestly procured Quezon ($90k, F-T SAR-NY '13 yearling) looks like authentic talent and adds Lasix for 3rd career start. Should sit ideal trip behind the speed and can earn Manny Franco his first graded stakes win..

Best Value: #3 Quezon 5-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Angela Renee 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Condo Commando 5-1 WON ($5.10)
Super Add: #5 Gap Year 4-1 6th


9th: 101st Remsen (G2), 2yo, 9f (DD)

Over the last decade, this event has been regularly dominated by odds-on types with $16.80 O' Prado Again the lone exception in 2011. The majority of those runnings had smallish fields, so this edition looks open to price considerations with a full gate and the 3 favorites all posted wide. That said, both KMc runners (#12 Frosted/3-1; #10 Classy Class/7-2) command respect with Frosted (Tapit o/o personal favorite Fast Cookie) preferred adding Lasix off MDN breakthrough when stretched to 1m. Needs to work out a trip obviously but is the horse to beat. Two first start MSW winners (Royal Burgh/12-1; Eh Cumpari/15-1) look poised to impact this with the former debuting at 8.5f at KEE and the latter on this strip 3 weeks ago. 50-1 Bodhisattva is an ideal exotics booster having broken his MDN in his lone two turn try in 5 outings. Use as many as possible to assure passage to the nightcap..

Most Likely: #12 Frosted 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Royal Burgh 12-1 11th
Best Value: #7 Eh Cumpari 15-1 9th
Exotics Use: #8 Keen Ice 20-1 3rd
Super Add: #4 Bodhisattva 50-1 5th


10th: 26th Cigar Mile H. (G1), 3+, 1m

Superb lineup for this final G1 of the NY year. Looking back at 2013 version, easy to see how Private Zone was able to perform so admirably with the softer opening quarters versus the BC Sprint. Is in arguably better form this time around and can wire given what looks like a moderate pace. Itsmyluckyday is headed to the breeding shed and you wouldn't think Spendthrift would send him off on a sour note. Has worked steadily since dull Kelso effort and should sit his up close trip at a decent price. Big Business never runs a bad race, has a distinct predilection for this surface (5/4-1-0)and is the right price upset candidate for me given ability to attend pace and finish. Great way to end a big day..

Most Likely: #2 Itsmyluckyday 5-1 9th
Best Value: #7 Big Business 20-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Private Zone 3-1 WON ($11.60)
Exotics Use: #8 Regally Ready 15-1 7th
Super Add: #6 Secret Circle 2-1 2nd


P4 Grid:

7: 1-7 (A), 2-6 (B), 3-8 (C)
8: 3-7 (A), 6 (B), 2-4-5 (C)
9: 12 (A), 6-7 (B), 2-8-9-10-11 (C)
10: 2-7 (A), 1-6-8-9 (B), 3-4-5 (C)



HAWTHORNE RACE COURSE


PRE-SCRATCHES


8th (6:20pm ET): Hawthorne Gold Cup (G2), 3+, 10f (DD)

As much great racing as there is today, this may be the most engaging heat of the day. Do not settle for short numbers..

Best Value: #6 Effinex 15-1 4th
Next Best: #8 Call Me George 10-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #9 Fordubai 12-1 7th
Super Add: #10 Mister Mardi Gras 6-1 2nd


Good luck!
Steve

[Kasept]

CD SCR/CHG'S

AQU SCR/CHG'S

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by arizonadave

Steve you might check your numbers in the Remsen I think frosted his number 12

THX Dave.. Good luck today!