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#1
03-28-2015, 12:53 AM
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Meydan Saturday Mar. 28th
Race 2 (Godolphin Mile):
Will be interesting to see how the locals respond to the fast early American speed of Bradester... #1 Tamarkuz: Blew the start in his first start this season but has blitzed them since. Drawn inside again and will be tough to beat. Locals are very successful in this race. #15 Sloane Avenue: Wide draw isn't a concern as last year's winner came from the same gate and the dirt will be fine as this is a half to Blame. Swooped from last to beat Graphic last out. Well worth the value at 10-1, but will be hard to take this being so lightly-raced and without a prep. #11 Haatheq: Always clunks up to be there or thereabouts. Came out of the Meydan Sobha lame and closed really well in the Burj Nahaar where nothing else from the back was making any impression. The early pace will help at a big price. #2 Free Wheeling: Took a bad check two back but still ran on fairly which showed some ability for the surface. Third highest lifetime earner courtesy of his back class in Australia so the quality is there. Drawn well and should get a good trip as the biggest price on the board. Can't be too confident on #5 Bradester given his last and no race in 5 months...#7 Dark Emerald has great turf form but the surface is a major question...#9 Graphic won the 2013 London Mile but Sloane ran right on past two back...#16 Surfer puts the blinkers on but will need a perfect ride. A wide run or cooked on the front end seem most likely. $0.60 Tri 1, 15/1, 2, 11, 15/1, 2, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10, 11, 15 $25.20 $1 P3 1, 15/8, 12, 13/4, 7 $12 Race 3 (Gold Cup): #13 Rio Tigre: Came with a big swooping move to get to the heels of the leader but hung from there on. Improving 4yo can continue to progress third off the shelf. #8 Bathyrhon: A neck from being a marathon G1 winner. That form alone stands out here and a repeat gives him a big chance. #7 Marzocco: Thrown in the deep end in only his fifth start but wasn't disgraced in top competition last summer. Ignore the two back and he got in a solid prep two weeks ago. Dangerous if he can progress from that and bounce back quickly. #14 Brown Panther: Has won fresh before but all those instances have been against much weaker. Always felt he's been on the overrated side and think he's a beatable favourite. #9 Almoonqith: Looks the best of the true locals, but may be a step below given the raiders and others who are more fit. #12 Vaasa is my complete bomb in here. French form isn't too dissimilar to that of other in here prior to them contesting much tougher, and some of that competition went on to run well in Listed and Group races (for example, Baino Hope also defeated my top choice by a similar margin in a G2). Slowly starting to find his stride in the UAE and I could use much worse in a race where I'm not overly confident on anything. $0.60 Tri 7, 8, 13/7, 8, 9, 12, 13, 14/7, 8, 9, 12, 13, 14 $36.00 $0.60 Tri 12/8, 13/7, 8, 9, 13, 14 $4.80 $1 P3 8, 13/4, 7/2, 4 $8 Race 4 (UAE Derby): #7 Golden Barrows: Massive turn of foot to blow them away when last seen. He ran a final quarter in the low 23s and his final time was 0.8 off the G1 February Stakes for older horses run two races later. He is the real deal, and if he can handle the extra 3/16ths we might be looking at a Japanese KY Derby runner. #4 Sir Fever: Gives away 10lbs as he's a Southern Hemisphere 3yo but those types have won this before. Top class Uruguayan runner needed his last and with the blinkers on should run to his best. #1 Mubtaahij: Other than the win over the short Sir Fever I don't think he's done anything special to date. Better than the rest, however. #2 Alnajem Alfaiz: Saudi runner returns on short rest but seems capable of filling the lower exotics. $1 P3 4, 7/2, 4/7, 8, 12, 13 $16 Race 5 (Al Quoz Sprint): #2 Bundle of Joy: Straight 5f specialist has been right there with Peniaphobia on a number of occasions within the past 12 months. Has the magic man aboard but looks the forgotten one. #4 Via Africa: She needed a run off a long-term layoff and de Kock is happy with her progress. Already a G1 winner against the boys and South Africa historically has strong sprinters. #16 Peniaphobia: Thought he had every chance in the straight last out but still came up short. I feel he might be better at 6f but he did win a prestigious 2yo race down a straight 5f at Newbury prior to being imported to HK. Outside draw should keep him out of trouble but will he be able to handle the blitzing fractions from the speed on the stand's side? #14 Distinctiv Passion: American speedball not getting much respect and rarely do I go for these types in these spots. However, if he breaks cleanly he could be the speed of the speed and at 5f might be hard to run down. Don't forget he was nearly 3 lengths clear of Secret Circle in December so the ability is there. #3 Hototo: Locals seem a cut below but he is consistent enough to be there for a share. $0.60 Tri 2, 4/2, 3, 4, 14, 16/1, 2, 3, 4, 13, 14, 15, 16 $28.80 $1 P3 2, 4/7, 8, 12, 13/4, 8, 10 $24 Race 6 (Golden Shaheen): #13 Cool Cowboy: The former American doesn't have the form as his current country mates, but he was undefeated in some quick 3yo affairs over 6f. Made an early move wide in his UAE debut and will improve off that prep. Can take them all the way. #8 Lucky Nine: 8yo back to his best with a narrow miss in the Chairman's Sprint Prize. Ran well over dirt and AWT much earlier in his career but has really taken the eye with impressive trials over the dirt in HK. Rates a big chance. #12 Super Jockey: Only the one run on the dirt, last out, but boy was it a good one. Showed great acceleration in the straight to win in one of the fastest times ever on the dirt in HK. Big ask to repeat three weeks later, but don't discount. #7 Secret Circle: May be the best sprinter in the field but he hasn't won since the '13 BC and has had his chances since. A win would be far from a surprise, but a share may be all he gets once again. $0.60 Tri 8, 12, 13/7, 8, 12, 13/2, 6, 7, 8, 9, 11, 12, 13 $32.40 $1 P3 8, 13/4, 8, 10/2 $6 Race 7 (Turf): #4 Earnshaw: If you look around the poor performance in the Prix du Jockey Club where he isn't bred to last in a race of that quality his form isn't that bad. Second to the imposing Ectot in his third lifetime start showed his ability right off the hop. Solid return run to get him ready for this at a price in a weak renewal. #10 Solow: Won a good renewal of the Wildenstein and returned with a smashing win, albeit against nothing. Hard to knock the horse or his connections, but it's not easy to take a short price in his first G1, even if it isn't the toughest bunch. #8 Cladocera: We'll see how the Sloane Avenue and Graphic form line holds up earlier in the card. Nothing wrong with her two wins against her own sex and is a big threat against the boys. #6 The Great Gatsby: Really excelled once he stretched out and I think the 9f will just be too short for his liking. $0.60 Tri 4/6, 8, 10/ALL $14.40 $1 P3 4, 8, 10/2, 4, 7/5 $9 Race 8 (Sheema Classic): #2 Dolniya: Bobbed out Flintshire last out but that was no fluke; she wasn't disgraced facing older in G1s last season. Royally bred filly as the dam is a half to Daylami and Dalakhani. Ready to step up for the big one. #4 Flintshire: Won a weak running of the HK Vase but was right there in the Arc and ran great backing up in the BC. #7 Designs On Rome: Sublime turn of foot but unproven at the distance, and 12f was a stretch for his classy siblings. Has the best form but the distance is a major question. #9 Harp Star: Caught the eye with a late run in the Arc but was disappointing in two subsequent starts. Fav needs a career-best, which is not an enticing combo. $1 Tri 2/4, 7, 9/ALL $21 Race 9 (World Cup): #5 Lea: Missed some work heading into the Donn yet he still ran great. Has the pedigree, especially on the bottom, for the extra furlong. World Cup heads back to the USA, but not with Chrome. #9 California Chrome: Done all that's been asked of him, realistically, since the PA Derby flop. This would be the toughest field he's beaten. #3 Hokko Tarumae: Flopped on Tapeta last year but is better than ever heading into this one. This is his best distance. Good luck! 
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#6
03-28-2015, 08:16 PM
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What is your opinion about Mubtaahij after his dominating victory?
I still don't believe he has beaten anything yet, but that turn of foot was great.
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#7
03-29-2015, 02:09 AM
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Quote:
Some thoughts...we'll be hearing from Sloane Avenue in the dirt division later in the year...never been a big fan of Big Macher but thought he ran great today, especially given the start...Dolniya looks the new female star...no excuses for the Americans in the WC... And as for Mubtaahij...impressive to the eye but again not sure what he beat. I was high on the Japanese runner but it does appear that he couldn't stay the trip. Sir Fever got into quite the trouble early and as a result didn't show his true ability. There was nothing else of substance in the field and he sat the perfect trip behind the wide and dueling leaders. It's hard to talk about time, regardless of it being an overseas race, because he wasn't fully extended, but even if he ran a few ticks faster it was still comparatively the slowest run dirt race of the day, although it doesn't mean too much as the other races were all older G1 races. I still stand by what I've been saying in that I don't think he's done anything to date to convince me he can run on the dirt at a level good enough to win a race such as the KY Derby. Question marks make a contender's prognosis murky, and he's got a plethora of them. And, on top of all that, the last horse to win the Derby with a similar dosage profile was Count Fleet...He's been dropped to the third favourite overseas in the futures market. I can't be willing to take that.
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