7/2 BEL Pick 5 Analysis

[ateamstupid]

1st: #4 Jai Alai is probably gonna go favored on the dropdown and he might be OK, he definitely got bet in his debut, but he proceeded to do zero running and will be an underlay. #5 El Genio's speed has to be respected. #6 Bustin Buttons is interesting first out with some big works for a Neal Terracciano barn that's had a really good meet. #1 Got Winged may finally be rounded back into form and needs to be used. The other two firsters aren't impossible either, and you can get clues from the board before punching in any Pick 5 tickets. A lot going on in here just to throw up your hands and take Jai Alai at a short price because Mike Hushion.

A: 1,4,5,6

2nd: #9 Thundering Gale only beat three foes last out, but she did it impressively, exploding away when clear after being bottled up and rank for much of the race. She's now 4-3-1-0 on the BEL turf and is much the horse to beat with a good draw and plenty of tactical speed. With #7 Little Often Anni and #8 First Whippoorwill scratched, it makes her that much more likely.

A: 9

3rd: #5 Danette, still a maiden despite being Grade 1 placed, is the horse to beat shipping cross-country for Keith Desormeaux. She's had her fair share of chances, but she's proven at the distance and should get a fair amount of pace to close into. #1 Regia Marina ran well last time considering how much ground she lost on the turn and could turn out to be OK for Tom Albertrani, being a half to Midshipman. A bit of a concern is her adding blinkers, as Albertrani is 0-for-26 in the past two years putting blinks on, but she's clearly a big player. #2 Right Decision has a live look in her first start on dirt with Lasix and her 11/13 race on the AQU main was actually a pretty good effort. For what it's worth, Rosario lands here instead of Regina Marina, but that could be for any number of reasons. #3 Blame Dixie has been a disappointment for Pletcher in her first two starts, but she was fried by one of the fastest paces of the meet last out when bet off the board. The problem is there's another stretch-out speed on the outside that she'll likely have to deal with along with the added quarter-mile in distance. I doubt she's gonna be her 4-1 M/L. Using her defensively.

A: 1,5
B: 2,3

4th: Pletcher entered #2 Tonasah in the Astoria on Belmont weekend for her debut, but she got loose on the track and probably ran a few miles before she was corralled. Doesn't seem like she came back any worse for wear, with three fast works showing in the interim. Have to feel like this is one the barn's better 2-year-old fillies. #1 Alys sold for $125,000, five times sire Uncle Mo's stud fee, after working a 1/4 in :22 flat at OBS April and should be expected to show speed from the rail. #3 Fabulous Devotion is bred to be a little better going longer, but is another one with fast works on the page for a stellar barn. #4 Awesome Dame went for 14 times her sire's stud free to West Point when working a furlong in :10 1/5 while getting over the ground very nicely at OBS March. Barn not known for 2YO success this early in the season but this filly is worth a look. #5 Lovely Credit lures Velazquez, but her pedigree screams turf. #7 Gauche was bet down to 1-5 in her debut at MTH and ships in for a dangerous barn, but that was a confirmed slow race and she appears to be running into some live firsters in here. #8 Big World is interesting on the outside for Maggi Moss and Tony Dutrow. I was a big fan of Custom for Carlos and expect his progeny to outperform his $3,500 stud fee. This filly sold for $98,000 last August and appears to be working well. Tonasah is going to be a pretty heavy favorite and will probably win, but this has the look of a quality field.

A: 2
B: 1,3,4,8

5th: #2 Asset Inflation is a contender, as he draws in a field without much pace and is capable of rating a bit if #8 Talk Therapy is hard sent. #4 Dowse's Beach and #6 Hear the Footsteps are the obvious other horses. Nothing clever here.

A: 2,4,6

[ateamstupid]

3 looks best of the firsters to me in the opener, so I'm throwing him in. Maybe Jai Alai will win, but 6/5 on a horse that did no running against a field with other possibilities is nutso to me.

.50 1,3,4,5,6/9/1,2,3,5/1,2,3,4,8/2,4,6 150
.50 4,5/9/1,5/2/2,4,6 6
156 total

[jms62]

Belmont 1 $1.00 P5 4 / 2,9 / 2,6 / 3,4 / 2,8 $16.00
Belmont 1 $0.50 P5 4 / 2 / 1,2,3,5,6 / 2,3,4,5,7 / 2,4,6,7,8,9 $75.00

[ateamstupid]

They knew.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

3 looks best of the firsters to me in the opener, so I'm throwing him in. Maybe Jai Alai will win, but 6/5 on a horse that did no running against a field with other possibilities is nutso to me.

.50 1,3,4,5,6/9/1,2,3,5/1,2,3,4,8/2,4,6 150
.50 4,5/9/1,5/2/2,4,6 6
156 total

$166.74

Could've been worse considering four strong favorites and a second-choice.

[ateamstupid]

Second day in a row the Pick 5 is gonna chalk out.

[DJARUM]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Second day in a row the Pick 5 is gonna chalk out.

Still, nice write up and well done!