Del Park Sat

[jnunan4759]

Going down there and a friend asked me to pick some races for him and his clients. Probably a big stupe, but might as well share it.

Dave

Delaware Park Sat 7/11/2015

Pick 3's are always a decent bet. You can "roll" them
through the entire card. (Races 2,3,4 and 3,4,5 and 4,5,6 and so on)
Winner of three straight races.
You might be able to bet that for 50 cents. You can
bet like 4 horses in the 2nd Race with 3 horses in the 3rd Race and 3 horses in the 4th Race for .not much. I think for 50 cents that would be $18.
and maybe get some payoff if they are not the favorite.
You can bet as many as you want in any leg. It's just
how much you want to spend.

Dave, I'm not giving you favorites. The guy in the paper
can do that. I'm giving you some horses I'm going to play
myself. If they lose, we'll crash and burn together. If they win,
they will always remember us. Hope you have a fun day.

Race 1

4- Tappintovictory 6-1
3- Seal Team Four 3-1
5- Pledian 4-1

Exactas in there or straight WP bets. Short field here and
I'm not in love with betting the #5 or #6. They could run 1-2,
but I'm not in love with the odds and would rather spend, and
maybe lose, a few bucks betting elsewhere. I hate big chalk in
short fields.
Daily Double OK, but don't play short odds. Throw the fish back.
Pick 3's and Pick 4's are always OK, but hard to hit, play them
anyway today

Race 2

1- Ebony Two Star 9-2
4- I'myoursugardaddy 8-1
7- Do Ya Wanna 3-1

Can do WP Exacta or Tri (Always Pick 3)
Reason I like this #1 is the track owner owns it. Don't be
surprised if it runs well. Don't be surprised if it wins. Fishy.



Race 3

11- Cool Roger 8-1
6- Retire Fifty Five 4-1
9- Unbridled Fire 7-2

Don't want to do something stupid here as the
favorites will most likely be way overbet. Bad horses running badly.
I'm not saying my picks will win, but I think it's a good
shot to "bet against" some low-odds stuff. You can get "Jiggy"
with some combos here. Good payouts could happen.

Race 4

50K Stakes Race

7- Aireofdistinction 6-1
3- Keep Crossing 8-1
6- Galiana 5-2
5- Who's In Town 4-1

Mix 'em up with 2 prices involved. If you get an Exacta
or Trifecta here, you could make out OK if the favorite
runs out.

These horses are halfway decent and you can make a case
for a few of them.

This is a rather nice field for a stakes race of such low purse.
However, many of these are older mares who they are “dying”
to get them a stakes placing for their breeding value. This may
be the last chance for many of these as they just don't run cheap
stakes like this anymore. I might go against the older and with the
younger here.

****Note- Races 4 through 9 are the better betting races on the
card and the last two (R10 and R11) both have small fields and
R10 has a heavy chalk (1-1 ML). Race 11 is a short field of
Arabians and they can be very chalky. So try to make any money
in races 4 to 9. ******

Race 5

3- Satirical 5-1
4- Dance With Ron 6-1
6- Justoneofakind 5-2
5- Divine Excitement 6-1

***Note-They have only one Pick 4, which is Races 5,6,7,8. This
is ridiculous in that it doesn't involve any of the 3 stakes races.
It's bush-league. However they do have rolling Pick 3's all the way
up to the 9th Race and have a Daily Doulble on 10th and 11th.
You should be able to get in the Pick 4 for 50 cents (not sure)*****

I think you can have some fun and play around with this race.
They are not bad horses and you can make a case for many of
them. Money may be spread out and combinations may pay squarely. I think you
can make a case for a few and possibly like some. I'm not sure how many wide
you have to go for the Pick 4.

Race 6

4- Arangol 2-1
6- Crazy Cousin John 9-2
2- Just Irish 4-1
1- El Chaparro 6-1

Not a great race, by any means. These are turds. Look at this as
maybe a hurdle in a Pick 3 or Pick 4 and I wouldn't be surprised if
any of these won this. However, this race won't make your day. You
can use it as a piece in your puzzle, though. You can play a TRI or
SUPER box on this and maybe do OK. But this is a big box of crap.

Race 7

4- Al Khali 8-1
7- Montclair 9-2
3- Indycott 15-1
1-1A Set to Music, Margano (prefer Margano)

Nice race and the #4 has back-class coming 2nd race off a 2 year layoff.
He was a very good horse at one time and would have walked-over this
field at 2-5 odds several years ago. He may not be the same, but I think
the trainer puts him in a good spot instead of battling the big-boys just
yet at Saratoga. You can play some exactas, tris and supers here. It's a
very good competitive race. If the #4 is not what he was, it's all wide open.

Race 8

2- Street Moxie 9-2
5- GG's Secondchance 5-2
8- Etruscan 4-1
4- Stron Stipulation 5-2

Don't have any great feelings here other than to use the #5 in all UNDER
positions. Don't like it to win, but it's the kind of horse that always
runs 2nd, 3rd. You can take some shots here, it's pretty open and some
of these haven't proved themselves as really bad yet. YET is the key-word.

Race 9
Robt. Dick Memorial-Grade 3

6- Ceisteach 10-1
1- Kitten's Point 4-1
9- Rosalind 5-2
10- Courtesan 6-1

Wild ride here. Virtually every horse has a shot here and it's just
going to come down to who gets a good trip, a good break and a good
ride. Maybe it's just me, but I don't see a lot of difference between
the longshots and the favorites. If that's the case, I'm betting the
horses that can pay more. I'd rather lose on a 20-1 horse than a 5-2
horse.

Race 10
Delaware Oaks G3

5- Lovely Maria 1-1
6- White Clover 6-1
4- Danzatrice 8-1
8- Peace and War 6-1

No great shakes here. Best 3YO filly in country and even though Larry
Jones said he didn't have her "tweaked" for this race, she should be
plenty good enough to win at short odds. She's a Daily Double play
only with some good odd's horses (ALL). Too slim on the vine for me, rather
throw the fish back at low odds. Hope she wins because we'll see maybe
the 3YO champion dirt filly. Betting-wise it's no good.

Here's a great lesson I'll teach you that was taught to me . Favorites, no matter what their odds, win no more than 35% of races. This horse (Lovely Maria) may pay $2.60 to win. That is 30 cents on the dollar vs. a good chance of losing. I'm out of that crap. I'm watching and going for beer and a sandwich. My risk is way out of shape with my reward on that. I'm trying to win 30 cents or less on a dollar and I've only got a 35% chance of doing that. No thanks.

I've got $16 and have a 100% chance of getting a Roast Beef sandwich and a cold beer.

Risk-Reward. The key to the races.

Look at the odds of the horse I gave you. Play some prices and it only takes a hit or two to make a good day. “Chalk” isn't going to do it. In case you didn't know it “chalk” is the favorite.

Race 11

6- Taylors Touch of Class A 6-1
3- Charich A 4-1
4- All N All A 5

These are Arabians and not bettable from Philly Park accounts, but bettable
at Del Park. Short field here and this may not have the stuff to bring
you home a winner if your behind at this point. Don't throw too much good money after bad
here and if you're ahead here play a win ticket. If you're behind, you're not going to really make it up here probably. At this point you should probably go to the casino, where things will get better or worse.

Good Luck. Hope I gave you some winners !!!`

Bonus Races

Parx 8th, Parx Dash (4:04 PM ET)

2- Ben's Cat 5-2
10- Amelia's Wild Ride 5-1
9- Power Alert 9-2

Not a great betting race but a good watching race, Don't waste a bunch of money
here. High risk, low reward. By all means take a shot if you have one. If you can bet the Cat and get $9, that may be a steal. Actually $7 may be a steal.

Belmont Race 9 (Forbidden Apple Stks) (5:28 PM ET)

6- Wicked Strong 5-1
1- Reload 5-2
3- Aztec Brave 10-1
5- Grand Arch 3-1

Super group who could just bash each other's brains out. Could run this race 7 times and get 6 different winners. Good race to maybe mix up some tris and ex. Also to use in horizontals.

Belmont 10th Race (5:59 PM ET)

12- William'sluckygray 10-1

Will run on the board. Use in Tris and Exactas. Could win, is running nicely lately. Not out of the question because he has some speed and if the pace goes right, he could go all the way. Throw some other crap in there with him and maybe we hit the nightcap tri !!!!

[jnunan4759]

I also do want to wish Steve and Gary and all DT good luck tomorrow with William. He's a nice horse and tries every time and hope he get's all the marbles tomorrow.

[jnunan4759]

Congrats to Steve, Gary and all DT'ers for a nice win Saturday with William. I made a little bit on him and it just looked like the place he's been looking for. He's very honest. He shows up every time.

As far as the crowd, they were a no-show. That was OK since I think I only had one winner on-top for them. People do that to you and you want to be nice. They figure you know racing, you know everywhere and everything. I rarely bet Delaware. A guy I know wants to take his girlfriend to Finger Lakes and wants me to pick his card. I never play Finger.

You give them losers and they think you're an A-hole. You don't give them any picks and they think you're an A-hole. They don't show up and you waste all that time and then the next time you end up as an A-hole. It's like the KY Derby. People ask you to bet for them. I always say no. You're an A-hole. The OTB is ten minutes away and I'm an A-hole. I'm going to the Breeder's Cup last year. "Here's $10, bet that for me. " On who ? You pick. No, I don't want the hassle of doing that. You're an A-hole.

Awful. No way to avoid being an A-hole.