7/15 BEL Notes & Analysis

[ateamstupid]

1st: Very tough to have anything clever. 6 is the horse to beat, followed closely by the 1 and 4.

2nd: Like the jock switch on 6 Starship Pleasant and with the scratch of Magsamelia she's a big wire-to-wire threat. Also like the turnback for 8 Bargaining Table. Spread race with the short-priced horses questionable, win bet on 6 at anything near 12-1.

3rd: Like 5 darnley bay. Was really good in three straight wins, then got caught behind a crawling pace two-back and had the wrong style on the class hike at mth. Drops back down against a bunch of off-form horses and this one-turn mile should hit her between the eyes.

4th: 3 Elementsofharmony is an interesting firster for Rudy Rodriguez. She's by Exchange Rate out of a stakes-winning Dynaformer turf dam and draws into a race where it's hard to really latch on to anyone.

5th: Hard to make a strong case for anyone other than the 2, 5 and 8. Prefer 2 Hidden Vow of the three on the drop and switch to Javier after being way too far out of it in his last two.

6th: 8 Roundupthelute is a must bet-against after a pretty unconvincing win at 1-5 when plunged in for $16k last time, was not claimed, now drops a notch further. No thanks. 1, 5, 6 and 9 are the others. 1 and 9 are obvious. 5 Blue Chips Only ran a pretty good 3rd at 22-1 at this level three-back, then was in against much tougher last out and ran respectably. People will see the 15 1/4 beaten lengths and scoff, but that was the race Smooth Bert just ran a hole in the wind and was in his own world. Blue Chips Only was narrowly beaten by the likes of Jeter, American Creed and Joe Mooch, all three of whom would likely go favored in this spot. 6 Mad Props is a flier, but does have that one competitive race where he was able to stay within range and has shown speed in his last two before backing up. Blinkers on and Arroyo is 5-for-9 ITM when he rides for Billy Turner. Worth including at a big price.

7th: #7 Chamois is tough to get past in this $102k (!) allowance where he holds an unmistakable pace advantage. 8 Mr Speaker is the other horse, as his last two races are better than they look on paper and he doesn't have to be far off the pace.

8th: 2 Quaver was the horse to beat for me off a good closing 2nd behind Lady Shipman, who only repeated this past sunday with a 104 beyer in a turf sprint stake against elders, but she scratched. 12 Lady of Victory is logical for Mott off a good 2nd behind thieves guild last out. 11 Katama showed a lot of ability first out when running her last 1/8 in :10.97 to close down a loose leader in the stretch on debut. 5 Miss Always Ready is interesting getting back to turf for Graham Motion. Full-sister to BC winner More Than Real was bet down to favoritism on debut for Pletcher, then ran pretty well in breaking her maiden in an off-the-turfer and was subsequently entered in the Tempted, where she chased a fast pace 3-wide and folded. There doesn't appear to be a lot of speed in here and with Lezcano up this is a dangerous horse.

9th: 12-horse field with a lot of horses it's tough to get behind. I guess 2 El Genio is the horse to beat off turf form, but he's got a lot of quit in him. 5 Spark to Ignite would blow this field away if he ever ran back to that 8/15 race at Saratoga and maybe with the jog around the track last out under his belt, he's prepared to get back to a good race. He'll be the best price of the logicals. 6 My Tommy Boy was in that off-the-turfer as well and ran a respectable 2nd on debut. His dam was a nice horse on grass and though her offspring haven't done much on it, they've only been given 6 opportunities as opposed to 63 dirt starts. 12 Canarsie Kid is obviously a big player if he's ready off the 419-day layoff for John Terranova.

[ateamstupid]

Lezcano baby! Victory from the jaws of defeat. Now let's get Darnley Bay home.

[ateamstupid]

Oof. Great ride to Arroyo to get up. Darnley Bay was best.

[ateamstupid]

Bang bang!! Elementsofharmony ROLLS at 22-1!

[jms62]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Bang bang!! Elementsofharmony ROLLS at 22-1!

Nice... You alive in a Pick 5?

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by jms62

Nice... You alive in a Pick 5?

No, unfortunately Lotsa Noodles knocked me out. But had the early double and win/place money on the 3 just now.

[letswastemoney]

Lotsa Noodles is very good on muddy/sloppy tracks...I think this was the 9th time out of 12 tries she hit the board in these conditions.

I was worried about her recent form though.

[ADJMK]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

No, unfortunately Lotsa Noodles knocked me out. But had the early double and win/place money on the 3 just now.

Good start. Shows you don't need to wait for the Spa to find prices.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

No, unfortunately Lotsa Noodles knocked me out. But had the early double and win/place money on the 3 just now.

That gives Saez 8 $30+ winners on the meet 7 on Turf and 6 in Turf routes... Someone to watch for prices at Saratoga

[ADJMK]

You deserve a conso with 4/5 of your top picks winning. Worth it if you can hit but becomes very frustrating when u are so close to the big payoff.

[Kitan]

Great stuff ateam!!

Originally Posted by jms62

That gives Saez 8 $30+ winners on the meet 7 on Turf and 6 in Turf routes... Someone to watch for prices at Saratoga

He was only average on the turf last year, and I do recall a prominent figure (not sure who) who made the point of how poor he was at that stage, but then again he was only 5% on the turf (7% routes, 20 0-0-1 sprints) during the Spring meet at Belmont preceding 'Toga...

In the last two Spa meets he's been 45 0-2-2 in turf routes with males that would pay at least $18 (2 for 3 with favoured males). 3yo fillies, and even more so 4 and up mares, seem to have been his price play. I'll have to take note of that...

[ADJMK]

Nice pick ATeam. Hope you had some win money and not just multis rolling.