Saratoga Monday July 27th Analysis

[Kitan]

Tough multis day yesterday finishing 2nd in the last leg of the P5 and not going deeper in the first leg of the late P4 (see playalong thread). Lots of seemingly vulnerable lower priced horses on this card.

Race 1:
#4 Okay Momma: For a filly that has shown some speed in the morning it sure hasn't translated to race day. I know that Cancel was up for the debut but that was on the turf. Wondering if they'll just send her today, waking her up on the drop, and I'd rather take a shot on a potential morning glory in a race where it's hard to like anything.
#5 Selective Memory: Ward far from good with these types of drop-downs (off >30 days, shipping) but she has been slow to start in both her races. A better start in a weak race gives her a chance.
#7 Zoetic
#3 Star Dynasty

Race 2:
#7 Seek to Destroy: 47.3 bullet should result in a better performance second off the claim.
#3 Johannesburg Smile: Quintessential Jacobson plunger, but he's had a slow start over the weekend and generally doesn't hit with these at the same clip as he does in the colder months.
#5 Jeter is SCR...
#1 Saturday Appeal

Race 3:
#6 Court Dancer: Can't make an excuse for her last but she's never run two poor ones in a row. Bullet work primes her for a return to her best in a race where speed will enhance her chances.
#4 Jubilant Vision: Jacobson/blinkers gamed her up and got the best out of her.
#3 Sweet Success: Not every horse handles PRM and some of her races prior to that give her a chance in here. Inconsistent sort can run big if she decides to show up.
#1 Sweet Whiskey: Is she the class of the race? Of course. But, there's two reasons why I think she's a total play against at odds-on. Firstly, she ran May 1st, worked twice at the end of the month, and proceeded to miss all of June after Vet SCRing in a similar spot the first week of June. Secondly, Pletcher is 1 for 15 (6 ITM) 1st off the shelf going route to sprint at Saratoga. Do you want that at 3-5 ML?

Race 4:
#3 Right Decision: 9f turf race was her best and her dam won at 9.5f over this very turf course for the same connections. Which Rosario shows up?
#9 Tizette: I like the switch to a more senior rider going this long on the turf. Dam was a 9f winner on the grass and this one showed in her debut behind a winner that came back to win this weekend that an extended affair is not out of her reach.
#5 Honey Chile Ryder: Dam was a class act over these types of distances. Don't think we've seen her best but have to wonder why JV or JJC aren't up.
#8 Magical Empire: Looks the most likely candidate to steal it on the front.
#10 is another fav I'm totally against. Motion had great stats with foreign shippers at SAR prior to the meet. He's had two this meet that haven't done much. His prior ones all had Lasix, while this year's crop (this one included) all haven't. Although the mare is antique, there is class up and down and I can't ignore the fact that Coolmore would let that pedigree go.

Race 5:
#5 Star Grazing: Jerkens had a mediocre meet at Belmont but he has them ready for the Spa. She won twice over this 9f trip last year and a return to this scenery could reward at a price.
#4 Samantha Nicole: Impressed with an ultra game victory off of a wide sweeping move. May just now be realizing her pedigree potential.
#1 Tiz So Sweet: Mott 3/3 with Junior up on 4 & up horses with Lasix coming off a layoff of 180 days or more at Saratoga. All were short prices, as this one will be. Don't like the work gap from May 24 to June 27 and she'll have to gun from the rail. Not convinced but can't toss.
#6 Another Incident: Needs to step it up but has handled this track previously and can finish in the money.

Race 6:
#6 Vischer Ferry: Don't think her first two career starts, her only on the dirt, were that bad given the way she started in both those races. Her dam and her lone sib to race both won on the dirt (routing) and he's got speed in a race devoid of much pace and ability.
#4 Spartan Emperor: Falcone not known for winning early, but this one had a couple of quick works last year and his final move wasn't anything to knock. Frail race and I wouldn't be surprised to see them take this down as the owners.
#5 Devilish Grin: Positive: change to JV. Negative: Toscano 1/89 in the last 5 at the Spa. Downgraded as a result.
#7 Bustin the Bank: I don't think highly of the June 10th race, but he did finish half decently with a wide trip for an average debut barn. This race doesn't appear much stronger.
#8 was bet to run better than he did on debut in a race that didn't turn out so bad. #9 is the class on paper but after not having missed a work prior to any starts shows up here without anything in 18 days. Similar pattern with Mareina's runner in the opener so see how that one does. Including both in the P4.

Race 7:
#4 Spring to the Sky: Think last year's winner will be forgotten about. Stalking trip in his first race this year was good, then he blew the start, and last out he was a bit short. He can sit right outside the 3, and potentially 2, and get first run on the fav. JJC lands elsewhere but Bruce and Rosario haven't done poorly together at SAR in the past.
#1 Shore Runner: Can't knock his turf sprint form at all. Sharp just doesn't quite hit a high clip second off the claim.
#6 Amelia's Wild Ride: Lost his chance when steadying in the stretch last out. Lezcano has won his last two times aboard.
#2 Brewing

Race 8:
#6 Cosmic Serenity: Had this one marked down in my stable after getting bottled up and having to take the rail run two back. Don't know if she would have beaten the 8-5 Pletcher that won by 10 but she was loaded with nowhere to go which almost resulted in disaster. Appears to come out of that okay as she's worked since. Doesn't find an easy spot but I can't say no to the 15-1 ML.
#10 Corner Three: No surprise that Chad has a great record repeating with last out maiden winners at the Spa. 9-1 on debut and will be much shorter this time around. Has a big chance but will be quite an underlay.
#4 Willow U: Ran in some competitive fields for this class last year and held her own. Weaver just gave her a start off the shelf and last out didn't have much chance after stumbling into an absolute crawl behind a wire to wire winner. Looks live.
#11 Loon River: Turf routes for this barn have been her best races in her career. They have been a cut below what would be necessary to win this but hard to ignore the barn's recent success and gets a positive weight swing.
I don't see what's so great about the 3 horse and #8 isn't one I'm high on either. For starters, Casse/Bridgmohan at SAR, and her lone win came with a perfect trip. No rabbit in that race, rather a tortoise. Casse 1/18 (6 ITM) with horses trying the lawn for the first time in a route off of a maiden win. Not much pedigree for the grass either. Yes, she's a NY-bred, but I'm skeptical.

Race 9:
#16 Back Scatter is SCR...
#14 Starago is SCR...
#7 Holy Week: Two turf races have by far been his best. Although he was last in his turf debut, that was at 10f in an open MSW. Solid third next out in a NY MSW and finds himself in against easier after a demolition derby start on the dirt three weeks ago. Bridgmohan gets the call as Cornelio stays with the Rice runner, as per usual.
#4 Greg's Fourwheeler: No excuses against two absolutely dreadful fields but somehow managed to run second last out. Maybe it all of a sudden clicked.
#2 Ant and Bee: At first I wanted no part of this runner, but gets a huge upgrade to Irad.
Mott is on fire but it is very strange for him to have an 18 day break between the final two works. Will play a cover P4 with #6 in case but won't use on top otherwise.
#13 was a 250k yearling who was entered for 40k right off the bat. Has had three suitable pace setups and failed to capitalize, and was barely in front of #2, who will be a much bigger price, in her last. Linda is 5% second off the bench at SAR. Not for me.

$0.60 Pick Five
Race 1: 3, 4, 5, 7
Race 2: 3, 7
Race 3: 4, 6
Race 4: 3, 5, 9
Race 5: 1, 4, 5
$86.40

$0.60 Early Pick Four
Race 2: 3, 7
Race 3: 1, 3, 4, 6
Race 4: 3, 5, 8, 9
Race 5: 1, 4, 5
$57.60

$0.60 Late Pick Four
Race 6: 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9
Race 7: 1, 4, 6
Race 8: 4, 6, 10
Race 9: 2, 4, 7
$97.20
Cover: 4, 5, 6, 7/1, 4/4, 6, 10/6 $14.40
$111.60 total

Good luck!

[senator L]

Nice analysis, thanks for sharing. I have bet cosmic Serenity in the 8 th

a couple of times too, but I don't think she'll have the class for this bunch imo

good luck

[Kitan]

Thanks, you as well.

Definitely think she's got to step it up a bit, but I'd be kicking myself if she won and I didn't use her on top.

Made a late P5 change to use the 7 instead of the 1.

[mm1019]

Great write up I hope we get all of that 15-1 on Star Grazing in the 5th Good Luck today...

[senator L]

Originally Posted by Kitan

Thanks, you as well.

Definitely think she's got to step it up a bit, but I'd be kicking myself if she won and I didn't use her on top.

Made a late P5 change to use the 7 instead of the 1.

I wasn't trying to talk you off your choice, just like to
question and get people's thinking

[Kitan]

I didn't mean it like that! Had written that it wasn't an easy spot so I agreed...

[senator L]

Originally Posted by arizonadave

nice hit with your back up ticket

this

Nice way to end your day - a winner

[Kitan]

Originally Posted by Kitan

$0.60 Late Pick Four
Race 6: 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9
Race 7: 1, 4, 6
Race 8: 4, 6, 10
Race 9: 2, 4, 7
$97.20
Cover: 4, 5, 6, 7/1, 4/4, 6, 10/6 $14.40
$111.60 total

Good luck!

$1 Pick 4 5 / 1,7,11 / 4 / 6,12,14,15,16 (4 of 4) $956.75
=$574.05 for $0.60


Thanks Dave!

[ADJMK]

Thanks Kitan. Just bet your backup ticket as I liked the #6 in the last. Nice pay for the sequence that included two 6/5 shots.

[Benny]

Originally Posted by Kitan

$1 Pick 4 5 / 1,7,11 / 4 / 6,12,14,15,16 (4 of 4) $956.75
=$574.05 for $0.60


Thanks Dave!

nice play kitan

[casp0555]

Originally Posted by Kitan

$1 Pick 4 5 / 1,7,11 / 4 / 6,12,14,15,16 (4 of 4) $956.75
=$574.05 for $0.60


Thanks Dave!

good job K!

[knickslions2]

Nice kitan!!!

[Kitan]

Thanks all! Always nice to end the day on a good note.