Saratoga 7/30 Pick 5 Play

[ateamstupid]

2nd: #1 HARLANS BELLE will be a heavy favorite in here dropping down against a subpar field for Brad Cox with a sharp five-furlong breeze in tow, but you can find better odds-on favorites than this one. She may win and the rail draw is advantageous at this distance, but it's not like she has a bunch of huge races on the page that tower over this field. She ran OK at Oaklawn in the winter and spring, but her last two races were not good and now she has to ship and win without any local races or works. #2 KITTEN'S TOP CAT is also dropping significantly and her one good effort did come in an off-the-turf race that was also the only other time she strung two races together. She does that again today and perhaps she's just better suited for dirt. Had no chance in her last turf race behind a slow pace. Maybe she gets bet down because of Ramsey, but if she's 5-2 or higher, she represents good value in relation to the favorite. #6 PUSHME PULLYOU is interesting at anything close to her 12-1 M/L price. She ran OK in breaking her maiden for $30k back in April, then was put on the grass against much tougher fields, ran pretty well two-back and lost all chance at the break last out. She drops and gets a positive barn switch to Marcus Vitali, has been given a break since her last and draws well to pull a stalking trip. Barn has done well since the start of 2014 with turf-to-dirt (18-for-71, $2.81 ROI) and sprint-to-route (15-for-71, $2.45 ROI) moves. There's a legit question as to whether she wants to go this far, as her lone route try was atrocious, but at a big price, I'm willing to take a chance to find out.

1,2,6

3rd: #3 FISH TRAPPE ROAD is the horse to beat shipping for William Bret Calhoun, as he comes in off a solid 4th in a very live-looking maiden 2YO race at Churchill. The winner, Mayor Mac, was tremendous and is likely pointing towards the Hopeful later this meet. The 3rd finisher, Unbridled Outlaw, returned to win next out despite hitting the rail at the start and having to close into a very slow pace at Ellis. Fish Trappe Shot had to be held up in between horses for most of the turn, a very uncomfortable spot for a 2YO firster, then kicked on nicely once clear, but the top two had flown by that point. Drops in to face statebreds for his 2nd start, has already run faster than par for the level and has been given an easy local breeze to tighten the screws. There'll have to be a good firster to beat him. #6 STORMIN STEPHEN will take a lot of money and Christophe Clement has to be respected, but I wasn't a big fan of his debut, as he appeared to have dead aim on the top pair in the stretch and never really threatened to pass them. Those two came back to be well-beaten by a Broman firster in a NY-bred stake next out. He can move forward, but I prefer Fish Trappe Shot of the two who have run so far. Pletcher and Repole have a firster with a 2nd-of-102 gate work on display and he's 6-1 on the morning line? Doubtful. This is the first starter by Repole's own stallion Giant Surprise, so you'd have to think he wants this one especially tight first out. #8 INSIDE STRAIGHT is dangerous as well for Pletcher and WinStar out of a pretty good broodmare.

3,7,8

4th: #4 PALACE is pretty obviously the horse to beat on paper, dropping into a NY-bred stake off five consecutive Grade 1 tries (two wins), but you have to wonder why his connections are opting for this spot instead of defending his title in the G1 Alfred G. Vanderbilt on Saturday. Add to that his relatively dull effort in the Carter being his only race since the 2014 Breeders' Cup Sprint and this isn't very auspicious spotting for a multiple G1 winner. Perhaps they're just trying to get him a confidence builder and prepare him for a fall campaign after some setbacks, but today seems like a good day to play against this likable former claimer. #7 MOONLIGHT SONG is the obvious other place to go, as the fragile but talented gelding has gotten the best of Palace in the past and draws well outside the other speed. The October layoff is a concern, but it's not like long breaks are new to this 8-year-old and Charlton Baker has had him ready to roll off the bench many times before. #6 SMOOTH BERT surprised a ton of people last out when he blew apart a field of statebred 25k claimers, popping a 102 Beyer and sneaking through the claim box off a 317-day layoff. Judging by the figures the horses behind him had been running, you could even argue that number is a bit low. Obviously the waters are way deeper today, but if he can run back to that race, he'd be a handful, even for the good Palace. #8 NOBLE CORNERSTONE needs to be used as well. He broke out at this track and distance last summer, running a 100 Beyer in a statebred N2X win before finishing a respectable 6th in the King's Bishop next out. After a winter break, he came back with a nice building block for his 4-year-old season, scoring 6/26 at BEL at a distance likely a little short for him. Should at least get an honest pace to rally into today and if Tom Morley continues to manage this gelding as well as he has, expect a step forward today 2nd off the bench.

4,6,7,8

$93,000 for 2-year-old maiden turf fillies! #1 CREATIVE THOUGHT is out of GSW turf dam Communique, but is by poor turf influence Bernardini and likely will need a race. #2 TIN TYPE GAL is by terrific multi-surface star Miss Shop and hasn't missed a beat since starting training at Fair Hill for Graham Motion, culminating with a bullet five furlongs last Thursday. Looks live. #3 SHE'S WORTH IT goes out for Joe Sharp and that alone likely makes her dangerous. Was purchased for a quarter-million off a :10 1/5 workout at OBS March, but I thought she had a weird sideways gait going on there and this is really more of a dirt pedigree than turf. #5 KENTUCKY ROAD went for $75,000 at OBS April after a 1/4-mile in :21 4/5, but she was pretty hard urged to get that and this pedigree is pretty modest. Still, it's Paul Pompa, Todd Pletcher and Javier Castellano so she has to be respected somewhat. #6 CONQUEST SARAHSTAR went for a whopping $650,000 at OBS April after running a furlong in :9 4/5 and with the Lemon Drop Kid/Yonaguska sire/damsire combination, she's bred to sprint on the grass for sure. Really got over the ground beautifully in her sales work, barely appeared to touch the surface. #7 LA NINA has the experience, having already raced three times, including an OK 2nd behind Wesley Ward colt Finnegan at Pimlico in the Preakness day opener. But she had to be scratched out of a similar spot towards the end of Belmont and she may run into much better 2YO's in here than she would've then. Tricky race.

2,6

6th: Tough to make a real strong case against Chad and Todd, the country club duo, with #5 WEALTH CREATION and #8 ROCK ME AGAIN, respectively. But if you're looking for other ideas, #6 CORSA VELOCE is bred on the damside to appreciate turf and her figures, at least on Thoro-Graph, make her competitive with the favorites. #3 ARCTIC OCEAN showed some promise at 2 and showed up with a good effort to win an OBS Championship stake January 27. If she ran back to that, she'd be dangerous, but Gary Contessa's horses have been straight up awful for months now and it's tough to trust her to show up with her good race.

5,6,8

1,2,6/3,7,8/4,6,7,8/2,6/5,6,8 = $108 for every $.50

GL!

[ateamstupid]

Revised play after the rains came:

1,2,6/3,8/4,6,7,8/2,13,14,16/4,6 = $96 for every $.50

[ateamstupid]

Awesome. Identified the horrendous favorite and had the best horse at 8-1 but get beaten by freaking Contessa because Javier saves all the ground. Getting pretty sick of this meet quickly.

[casp0555]

This sold me on this FTS in third...thanks for posting Joey!

"Pletcher and Repole have a firster with a 2nd-of-102 gate work on display and he's 6-1 on the morning line? Doubtful. This is the first starter by Repole's own stallion Giant Surprise, so you'd have to think he wants this one especially tight first out."