8/20: Saratoga (Day 24; Union Avenue); Del Mar ($58k C/O)

[Kasept]

SARATOGA


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 9f (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Pushme Pullyou 9-5 WON ($3.40)
Best Value: #7 Single Malt Female 10-1 6th
Next Best: #4 Backwater 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Sambrook 5-2 2nd


2nd: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 11f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Thurgood 7-2 4th
Best Value: #7 He Has Charm 6-1 5th
Next Best: #4 East Bay Lodge 5-1 WON ($8.30)
Exotics Use: #2 All Over Me 4-1 3rd


3rd: CLM/N2L, 3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Money Changer 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #2 I'mbetterthangood 5-1 3rd


4th: MCLM/$40k, 3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 I Believe I Can 3-1 6th
Next Best: #1 Je Ne Sais Pas 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #5 Book the Bet 8-1 7th
Exotics Use: #4 Tax Deduction 5-1 5th


5th: MSW, F&M-3+, 11f-IT (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Tiztalented 4-1 WON ($7.90)
Next Best: #10 Right Decision 5-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 Delightful 12-1 6th
Exotics Use: #2 Elated 5-2 2nd


P5 Grid:

1: 3 (A), 4-7 (B), 1-2-6 (C)
2: 3 (A), 4-7 (B), 2 (C)
3: 1-2 (A), - (B), 6 (C)
4: 1-3 (A), 2-4-5 (B), 6-7-8 (C)
5: 8 (A), 10 (B), 2-4-5 (C)


P4 Grid:

2: 3-7 (A), 2-4 (B), 1 (C)
3: 1-2 (A), 6 (B), - (C)
4: 1-3 (A), 2-4-5 (B), 6-7-8 (C)
5: 8 (A), 10 (B), 2-4-5 (C)


6th: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 9f (G/S, P3, DD)

Best Value: #6 Changewilldoyagood 8-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Royal Posse 5-2 WON ($5.30)
Exotics Use: #7 Beyond Empire 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #4 All About Ashley 6-1 7th


7th: NY-MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 STARTWITHSILVER 3-1: Exchanged blows with Big Thrill prepping for debut.. 2nd
Next Best: #7 Preying Mantis 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Freudsalm 7-2 6th
Best Value: #8 Chinchilla Dust 15-1 WON ($44.00)
Super Add: #4 Silver Vixen 10-1 3rd

$1 Exacta (8-9) Paid $216.75
$1 Trifecta (8-9-4) Paid $2,202.50
$1 Superfecta (8-9-4-7) Paid $12,467.00


8th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 9f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Unbridled Juan 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #2 Sea Raven 8-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Indian Brut 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Rare Eagle 15-1 7th


9th: Union Avenue-NY, F&M-3+, 6.5f (DD)

Most Likely: #7 Willet 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #9 Sister Margaret 8-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Miss Da Point 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Make the Moment 5-1 7th


10th: MSW, F&M-3+, 6.5f

Most Likely: #4 Strong Incentive 5-1 4th
Best Value: #6 Flick of an Eye 8-1 6th
Next Best: #7 Fair Point 5-2 WON ($8.90)
Exotics Use: #2 Tasunke 4-1 5th


P4 Grid:

7: 9 (A), 6-7 (B), 1-2-4-8 (C)
8: 1 (A), - (B), 2-4 (C)
9: 7-9 (A), 2-4 (B), 1-6-8-10 (C)
10: 4-6 (A), 2-7 (B), 1-3-9 (C)



DEL MAR


POST-SCRATCHES


3rd: CLM, 3yo, 5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

$56k P6 C/O starts here..

This feels trickier than it looks. Jazzy Josh back on turf and can pounce on the frontrunners..

Best Value: #2 Jazzy Josh 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Smack Talk 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Rocket Heat 3-1 WON ($7.40)
Super Add: #7 City of Vengeance 5-2 4th


4th: MCLM/$30k, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P3, DD)

First of 3 MCLM's and all equally murky..

Best Value: #6 Tequila Mary 6-1 10th
Next Best: #3 Some Caan Job 5-2 WON ($4.00)
Exotics Use: #8 Among the Angels 5-1 5th
Super Add: #2 Swiss Rosalee 5-1 2nd


5th: CLM, F&M-3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Dublin Dancer 3-1 WON ($7.60)
Next Best: #8 Midnight Lady 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #4 Miss Nicki J 5-1 6th
Exotics Use: #1 Sheza Eyeopener 6-1 4th


6th: MCLM/$30k, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 Fast Escape 5-2 3rd
Next Best: #4 Golden Bayers 4-1 WON ($9.60)
Best Value: #2 Pirate Flag 12-1 4th
Exotics Use: #7 One Bye Two 3-1 2nd


7th: S/ALW, 3+, 8.5f-T (DD)

Most Likely: #1 Saint of Saints 7-2 5th
Best Value: #5 Small Town Cop 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Olympic Blue 5-2 7th
Exotics Use: #4 Macho Sox 8-1 8th


8th: MCLM/$20k, 3+, 7f (Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #4 Herbies Thunder 7-2 WON ($7.60)
Next Best: #6 Show and Tell 3-1 4th
Best Value: #7 Ladies Man 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #11 Better Luck 5-1 6th
Hi-5 Play: #12 Black Tie 6-1 2nd


P6 Grid:

3: 2-5 (A), 1 (B), 3-7 (C)
4: 3-6 (A), 8 (B), 2-5-10 (C)
5: 5-8 (A), 1-4 (B), - (C)
6: 9 (A), - (B), 4 (C)
7: 1 (A), 5 (B), - (C)
8: 4 (A), 6 (B), 7-11 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x3x4x1x2x2 = 144 x $2 = $288
Full (A/B/C): $200 ($296 with 4&6 as A's in 8th)


P4 Grid:

5: 5-8 (A), 1-4 (B), - (C)
6: 9 (A), 4 (B), 2-6-7 (C)
7: 1-5 (A), 4-8 (B), 9-10 (C)
8: 4-6 (A), 7-11 (B), 8-12 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x4x4 = 128 x .50 = $64
Full (A/B/C): $68 (With $1 All A's Play)


Good luck!
Steve

[Kasept]

SAR SCR/CHG'S

[atolunch]

BOOM goes the DYNAMITE!!!

Great job in the 7th

Congrats and thanks as always!!

[asiarush]

👍👍🍻🍻🍻👏👏👏👏🐴🐴🐴🐴Great job Steve, thanks!!

[kingsize14u]

Great job as always. I was wondering how you structured the tri and super ticket in the 7th.

[declansharbor]

Great job today Steve! Awesome as usual.

I had a profitable day but I come away feeling 'ho hum' about what could have been. Had Trensita gotten 2nd, I would've absolutely crushed the ex & tri. Looked poised entering the turn by getting in nice position and even in mid-stretch it briefly looked that place monies were attainable. Wasn't meant to be. That's what tomorrow is for, day 21!

[Kasept]

1-5-6-7-11 pay off in P6..

Anything else produces $404k C/O into Friday..

[Alabama Stakes]

Originally Posted by kingsize14u

Great job as always. I was wondering how you structured the tri and super ticket in the 7th.

Well you have a "best bet" which is semi rare. You take him first and second in the tri and super . Cost $24 for dollar tri . $48 for dollar supers. Pretty standard faire

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by atolunch

Great job in the 7th Congrats and thanks as always!!

Originally Posted by asiarush

👍👍🍻🍻🍻👏👏👏👏🐴🐴🐴🐴Great job Steve, thanks!!

Larry, Rush.. Thanks guys. That was wild. Hope everyone got something out of it.