Keeneland Breeders' Cup Saturday Oct. 31

[Kitan]

Race 1:
#3 Lord Commander: Should track #2 all the way. Only loss was in the slop.
#1 Hebbronville
#7 Recount
#4 Prime Engine

Race 2:
#5 Dan the Go to Man: Wasn't fully tuned for debut and came back a big winner over this course.
#4 Sheikh of Sheikhs
#3 Noholdingback Bear
#11 Spikes Shirl

Race 3:
#1 Land Over Sea: Improved steadily with every start and no reason to believe that trend won't continue here, especially as she now has three works for this (vs 0 and back in 3 weeks last out).
#10 Songbird: Hot fav might get away easy on the lead. Tough to knock her and much the one to beat.
#9 Rachel's Valentina
#7 Nickname

Race 4:
#4 Jimmy Bouncer: Lightly raced but very talented. Beaten at a mile and had a little hiccup in preparation for his last. All systems go this time around.
#5 Lady Shipman: 3yo filly is the fastest on paper but is yet to beat this type of quality.
#1 Pure Sensation
#13 Stacked Deck
#14 Mongolian Saturday: Ultra consistent and hard to leave out of the exotics at a price.
Would also add #2/#3 (too short) and #8 (will get caught) underneath in possibly the toughest race of the BC.

Race 5:
#3 Taris: Hard to knock anything she's done around one-turn. Stacked four wide dueling in a 5 horse race (guess who won...!) while giving weight and Stevens didn't encourage her at all in the stretch to save some for this one. Showed two back she doesn't need to lead and don't forget the demolition she put on here last year.
#6 Super Majesty: Has the ability, but this just may come too soon for this inexperienced 3yo.
#4 La Verdad: Basically a paid workout last week. On the fence about her rating ability as it was against no one but she was quite comfortable the entire way. Could go either way.
#8 Stonetastic: Aimed for this this year. Can hang on for a minor share.
Have to take a stand against Cavorting. Extremely tough post and only three works.

Race 6:
#9 Miss France: Fabre said she was short of stamina in her last two and with her stablemate in the Mile I think this was always the aim. She's bred for the trip and in her one try past a mile she was stopped at the key point of the race but battled on gamely. Has the speed to sit handy and hoping for the flying dismount at a little bit of a price.
#12 Secret Gesture: Beaten by Legatissimo when giving that one 12 lbs and it's only a 3 lbs difference today. The trip should be right.
#3 Legatissimo: Respect what she's done but never been her biggest fan. Including in multis because I don't want to get beat by her but not using on top otherwise.
#1 Hard Not to Like: Given only three works for a 10f try cross-country so it's no surprise she flopped as the fav. Huge win at the Spa for a career-best but no 6yo has ever won this race. Underneath.

Race 7:
#6 Ivan Fallunovalot: Completely new animal at 5. Runs the times and figures to make him a huge overlay at 30-1. Only losses this year came when he gave 5-7 lbs. Has the style to stalk blistering fractions and put them away at the end. Last year's winner showed you can win this race off demolishing lesser. Can't argue the winning record.
#9 Masochistic: Private Zone isn't fast enough to lead at 6f and with Runhappy tending to break slow I can see him in front on the turn. I think he's much fitter for this run and may be forgotten about.
#12 Big Macher: Have a love-hate relationship with this guy. Whenever I think he's not good enough he puts in a big performance. Really caught the eye when losing his chance at the start in Dubai and came back sensationally at DMR. Don't know if he's fast enough to hang around early, but he can grab a piece late.
#13 Private Zone: As mentioned above he's not got the sub 44 speed to lead at 6f but showed last year he can stalk and hang around.

Race 8:
#5 Impassable: Rapidly improving this year and with no rain in the forecast for the card the course might dry up just to her liking. Never ran in a G1 yet but has kept good company and is a solid price.
#3 Make Believe: Fabre wanted to use his last as a prep for this but instead he rated beautifully and absolutely blew them away in a new course record. Flopped the one time he shipped, and although the connections know how to get it right, it is a slight concern.
#7 Tepin: Hasn't regressed in any start this year and if that trend continues she is very dangerous. This is much tougher than her last but she relished the course and conditions.
#6 Tourist: Wise-guy runners never win, do they? Had no chance with the tough trip from the wide post last year but has done nothing wrong in any turf start to date.
#1 and #10 underneath.

Race 9:
#1 Conquest Big E: As an impressive of a debut loss as they come. Didn't beat much when coming back to win over this course but 700k yearling has every right to keep improving as a total bomb. Trip should be good.
#2 Riker: Looks to be the controlling speed and even with distance doubts on the bottom he managed the two-turns last out. Smart move on the WO training track.
#9 Brody's Cause: Two for two on the dirt, both wins via wide sweeping moves. Underlay compared to the prices of those wins.
#4 Unbridled Outlaw: Showed a lot of heart to battle back strongly after being taken out twice. Dangerous with a clean trip.

Race 10:
#4 Slumber: Awoken with the blinkers on. Course should suit him most.
#1 Golden Horn: Ground is a slight concern, and as much as they deny it this race is a bit of an afterthought.
#7 Big Blue Kitten
#6 Twilight Eclipse

Race 11:
#4 American Pharoah: Hate to put him on top but the SCRs leave him in complete control of this race. Respect what he's done but has been given things his own way too many times and a win here will do nothing to remove my doubts of being overrated.
#3 Frosted: Valiant effort against AP in the Travers but it wasn't enough. Only chance of AP losing is if they go after him again.
#9 Honor Code: Just won't get the pace to run at.
#1 Tonalist: At his best in NY.

Race 12:
#2 Sweet Success: Wasn't fully cranked for the return in which she was caught wide. Fitter for this and while she does need to improve, she's back with the rider who rides her best.
#9 Fusaichi Red
#1 Sweet Swingin
#6 Clothes Fall Off

$0.60 Pick Five
Race 1: 1, 3, 7
Race 2: 3, 4, 5
Race 3: 1, 10
Race 4: 1, 4, 5, 13
Race 5: 3, 6
$86.40

$0.60 Early Pick Four
Race 3: 1, 7, 9, 10
Race 4: 1, 4, 5, 13
Race 5: 3, 4, 6
Race 6: 3, 9, 12
$86.40

$0.60 BC Pick Four
Race 8: 3, 5, 6, 7
Race 9: 1, 2, 4, 7
Race 10: 1, 4, 7
Race 11: 3, 4, 9
$86.40
Extra $1 play: 3, 5, 6, 7/1, 2, 4, 7/1/3 $16
Total: $102.40

$0.60 Late Pick Four
Race 9: 1, 2, 4, 7
Race 10: 1, 4, 7
Race 11: 1, 3, 4, 9
Race 12: 2, 9
$57.60

Good luck!

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

butal beat down bro