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#1
10-19-2006, 09:00 PM
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11/4 - My Budget - Your Suggestions
Plain and simple, when I roll into Churchill on 11/4 I will have $200 for gambling. I am undecided; however, on my betting strategy for this day as it is unlike any others. I am now strictly for the most part a Pick 3, Pick 4 and Win wager kinda guy. No way am I attempting a Pick 4. Should I roll with Win bets on each race or Pick 3's or a small combo of both? My concern is that this day is so wide open at times that I wil go too deep in the Pick 3's that it will be over before it starts, see what I am saying?
Most important is I wanna have fun and drink a few,meet some of you all, etc but I wanna cash a darn ticket as well. What is your experience, plan for this wide open day? 
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#2
10-19-2006, 09:08 PM
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pic the races you feel confident in and go for it. BC day I usually find a couple of partners and play wide pic 3 and 4 tickets in the 200-300 range.
It's a day by beating favorites payoffs can be HUGE. Remember a lead off pic 3 that paid 300K plus. (Was the day Tinow beat Giants Causeway for the Classic) and we missed it by one horse. Another favorite bet we make as a group is find 4 people, throw in 6 bucks a piece, each choose a horse and box the 4 in a dollar tri. Most importantly is never bet what you're not willing or can't afford to lose. This game is much more fun that way.
__________________
“To compel a man to furnish funds for the propagation of ideas he disbelieves and abhors is sinful and tyrannical.” Thomas Jefferson
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#4
10-19-2006, 09:57 PM
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$200 is a good amount. If you are only going to bet the BC races that gives you $33 bucks per race. But there is a strategy you could employ with the Pick 3. If you hit the first leg you do not need to make a new bet for the 2nd leg because you are already "alive." That allows you to skip a race and then you can roll that $33 set aside for the 2nd leg and start a pick 3 in the 3rd leg. So then you have $66. Does this make sense?
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#5
10-19-2006, 10:14 PM
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I plan on picking one horse in each race and wheeling it. . . hoping for bombs underneath. . .
__________________
@BDiDonatoTDN
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#6
10-19-2006, 10:19 PM
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I would put $100 of it on Happy Ticket's nose and pray you get 5-1 on her....
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#7
10-20-2006, 12:10 AM
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stay with what you do best. pik 3's can really pay nice on bc day.
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#8
10-20-2006, 12:36 AM
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p3s and exacta savers
Your p3 bets dont have to be large spreads. See what races you feel strongly about and try a couple of singles to cut the bet size down. Then you can spread some exacta keys to keep it rolling. if you hit a nice exacta, you will be fat to spread some p3's.
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#9
10-20-2006, 01:29 AM
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$200 on beer and have fun.
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#10
10-20-2006, 01:37 AM
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Look me up. I will be in the clubhouse section 300's. When you find me, tell me who you are and hand me $100. I will then proceed to kick you square in the nuts and tell you to leave the track immediately. This way you will be leaving CD feeling the same way as you would after dumping your whole bankroll, except you will still have $100 left over!!
Good luck!! 
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#11
10-20-2006, 07:17 PM
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Quote:
go with what you do best. if you like wins and pick 3's....play them, and try to cap it like you always would. it can be a good day for beating favorites....but don't get too caught up in this either. sometimes bc races have so many good horses in them that the favorite you are trying to beat is a genuine superstar sitting on the board at 7/2. would you ignore that on any other day of the year? of course not....so it isn't wise to do it on this day either. also, while it is important to bet this day like any other day, you should remember not to watch it like any other day. for example, if you decide to bet against bernardini in the classic and he draws off to win by 10....don't be so pissed about your bet that you forget to appreciate what you just saw. last piece of advice. like any other day your goal should be to make money. sounds obvious right? but a lot of people....especially on these big days.....are so intent on turning their $200 into $10,000 that they end up turning it into $0. If you turn your $200 into $250.....you had a great day in my book.
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#12
10-20-2006, 07:25 PM
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Quote:
also keep in mind that show bets somehow become profitable on this day. you can easily double your money on show bets, even when the favorite runs in -- it's like the derby where all those prices go up. stacked wps bets have been good to me in the past, something like $5 win, $10 place, $20 show. even if your horse shows, you're going to show a profit.
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#13
10-20-2006, 08:51 PM
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Hell, if you start with 200 and end with 200 thats a win. A days worth enjoyment for free.
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#14
10-20-2006, 12:41 PM
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Quote:
 and i don't think that 5-1 will be such a problem. that's the low end of what i'm expecting on her given her unwillingness to win races lately.
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#15
10-20-2006, 05:51 PM
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I like Pick 3's myself, but Breeders Cup day is a day for the same race exotics. You'll have a better chance of catching real bombs on the bottom of those because there are so many quality runners that get overlooked that hit the board.
__________________
Do I think Charity can win? Well, I am walking around in yesterday's suit.
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#16
10-20-2006, 08:21 AM
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I think exactas are the way to go. Boxing 5 horses for a buck only costs $20 a race. Also if you really like a horse to win, box five behind that horse in the tri...again a $1 bet costs $20.
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#17
10-20-2006, 10:09 AM
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I wouldn't be afraid to start out with a pick 3 in your situation. You can still cover two legs deep if you can a find a leg that you can single or keep it 3 horses or less.
Good thing about a multi-race bet is that it can hold your interest for longer than going deep in the tri or super and obliterating your bankroll in just one race. Assuming you hit the first leg, the pick 3 becomes even more exciting in the second and third legs. Exactas could pay huge and maybe part wheels 3 horses over 4 are just $9 a pop on the buck. Too bad they don't have dimes or 50 cent P4s. I don't know if you can bet on other tracks while at Churchill. Most of the tellers may only be handling CD bets like they do on Derby weekend. $200 isn't a bad bankroll. It's more than a lot of people will have!
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#18
10-21-2006, 01:02 PM
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If it hasn't rained during Breeders Cup week(and isn't raining B.C. DAY,)then I would play a pick 6 with the money.There are too many good low priced horses to go fishing for a price in every race.You'll just go broke,and be bitter at Pletcher etc.So,in 4 of the 6 races,use the 2 horses in each race that you really think will get you the winner.DON'T CONSIDER ODDS(for once.)In one of the races,I would try to come up with a horse you like at a price(this is your favorite price horse of the day.........like last year when Shug hooked up a horse to nature's nitro.) Then in the last leg, wheel a race(one of these races is often simply stupid.)So,cap 5 races,and don't cap 1 of them.After all,most people are trying to cap all 6,and logic is overrated when your talking about 6 races in a row.So,go 2x2x2x2x1x all.I would actually go in with others (so you can make it 3x3x3x3x1xall.)I would make sure to wheel one race though.You simply need to do that,and you need one decent paying single.
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