7/22: Saratoga ~ Opening Day (Lake George; Schuylerville)

[Kasept]

Here's to a great Saratoga meet! Good times with friends old and new, lots of winners and safe trips for all..


SARATOGA


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 9f (P5, P3, DD)

Meet kicks off with deep state bred set with promising sophs facing tough tagging elders. None are easily crossed out. Jet Black has stepped up at 3 for Sciacca and Parcells and makes 2 turns debut here. Comfortably stretched out last and Jose Ortiz can adjust to any pace scenario with him..

Most Likely: #4 Jet Black 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #7 Battle of Evermore 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Beyond the Green 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Thirst for Glory 5-1 5th


2nd: NY-MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Seattle Ice Queen 3rd
Next Best: #1 Ribbonite 2nd


3rd: CLM/N3L, 3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

You can twist yourself into a pretzel all you want, but Chipit chased real horses in Jersey and wins with one of his good races. Gets to sit behind a pacesetters which aids his cause further..

Most Likely: #2 Chipit 2-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Roll Tide Roll 5-2 WON ($6.90)
Best Value: #8 Dettifoss 12-1 7th
Exotics Use: #7 Chubby Master 12-1 5th


4th: O-CLM/C, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

Tapitry has advantage of recency while Sentiero Italia the filly to beat with any natural 3yo to 4yo improvement for excellent layoff barn..

Most Likely: #2 Sentiero Italia 8-5 WON ($2.70)
Next Best: #3 Tapitry Late SCR
Best Value: #7 Selenite 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Distorted Beauty 10-1 3rd


5th: CLM/N2L, F&M-4+, 1m-IT (P6, P3, DD)

Competitive group, most seeking proper level. Linda Rice may not have had enough time to impact Marnesia Big Girl (4-1), but she's a fit and suits the race flow. Night Madam (SCR'D) is fit off winter starts and has made big strides this spring when grass racing resumed. Returns from state bred try to price of near miss downstate and adds Leparoux. Annie Rocks (Jason Servis/Dubb) and Elementsofharmony (Mike Maker/Ramsey) make first starts in barns deadly with new acquisitions but could be victims in any kind of pace skirmish..

Most Likely: #6 Marnesia Big Girl 4-1 4th
Best Value: #13 First Embrace 10-1 11th
Next Best: #1 Elementsofharmony 10-1 6th
Exotics Use: #12 Annie Rocks 6-1 WON ($7.30)


P5 Grid:

1: 4-7 (A), 1-5-6 (B), 2-3-8 (C)
2: 7 (A), - (B), 1-2-4-5 (C)
3: 2-6-8 (A), - (B), 5-7 (C)
4: 2-3/SCR (A), - (B), 1-7 (C)
5: 1-6-13 (A), 10-12 (B), 2-7-8-9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x1x3x2x5 = 150 x .50 = $75
All A's: 2x1x3x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18


P4 Grid:

2: 7 (A), - (B), 1-2-4-5 (C)
3: 2-6-8 (A), 5-7 (B), - (C)
4: 2-3/SCR (A), 1-7 (B), - (C)
5: 1-6-13 (A), 10-12 (B), 2-7-8-9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x5x4x5 = 100 x .50 = $50
All A's: 1x3x2x3 = 18 x .50 = $9


6th: MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f (G/S, P3, DD)

One of the fancy babies from Casse, Pletcher or Asmussen are probably going to win, but #3 Sunday Gravy (15-1) has the classic Contessa posture for a big effort for owner Lee Pokoik off the 'one under the belt' turf tightener..

Most Likely: #4 La Coronel 3-1 5th
Best Value: #3 Sunday Gravy 15-1 7th
Next Best: #7 Special Risk 8-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Bowie 5-2 WON ($7.70)


7th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Quirky hodge-podge with a few disappointing enigmas lining up. Obviously Apologynotaccepted is the key player, but she's also been the biggest underachiever since the flashy debut that brought new money to Happy Alter from Gary Barber. The 6f might simply be what she needs/wants. There is pressure to outside though and that's what makes this such a sinkhole when trying to eliminate candidates..

Most Likely: #5 Apologynotaccepted 2-1 4th
Best Value: #1 Anna Rae 6-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Takrees 4-1 WON ($10.80)
Exotics Use: #7 True Romance 10-1 2nd


8th: Schuylerville (G3), 2yo-F, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Made Me Shiver 5-2 4th
Best Value: #9 Harlands Thunder 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Olive Branch 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Lightening Dove 8-1 7th


9th: Lake George (G2), 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (DD)

Yet ANOTHER stacked turf test for sophomores..

Most Likely: #5 Ancient Secret 7-2 WON ($6.40)
Next Best: #3 Diamond Fields 6-1 8th
Best Value: #9 Outsider Art 15-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Elysea's World 5-1 2nd


10th: MCLM/$40k, 3+, 8.5f-IT

#13-AE Archangel Rose (5-1) dangerous if drawing in..

Most Likely: #5 Market Strength 5-2 WON ($5.50)
Best Value: #13 Archangel 5-1 7th
Next Best: #2 Arch Contender 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #11 He's One Wild Dude 4-1 11th


P4 Grid:

7: 5 (A), 1-2 (B), 3-4-6-7 (C)
8: 5-9 (A), - (B), 1-3 (C)
9: 3-5-9 (A), 2-8-12 (B), - (C)
10: 5-13 (A), 2-11 (B), 12 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x6x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18


Good luck!
Steve

[Kasept]

Motion is SCR'g TIN TYPE GAL for Sunday's Boiling Springs at MTH..

[Kasept]

SAR SCR/CHG'S