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#1
07-31-2016, 12:18 PM
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Saratoga Sunday July 31st
Race 1:
#5 Saratoga Heater: Both wins in the slop, including one over this track. #4 Cat Fiftyfive: 2 for 2 on wet tracks and is the one to catch. #6 Magritte: Given a prep at 5.5f. Won a one-turn mile race. Race 2: #8 Courtly Kitty: Experience may prove valuable as the debutants don't appear to be special. #11 Down Royal: Three quick 3f blowouts in succession. #14 Twofreeknights: Lone MTO and Gullo capable here with 2yos, just generally not with FTS. Race 3: #1 Carrumba: Finished ahead of Curalina last out and represents the value. Proven over a wet track. Race 4: #1 Caribbean: Pletcher had a poor stat heading into the CD race and he was missing a final work before the last. Dam's lone win was off the turf and Pletcher is 3 for 4 (2nd by a neck) in off the turf routes going MSW to MCL at NYRA (all at BEL). #8 Immunity: Blames hit at a high clip in the mud. #9 Joywave Race 5: #1 Seventhfleethumor: Looks to get the perfect set up behind the speed. Well beaten in lone wet try but that was a two-turn route. #3 Dad'z Laugh #4 Still Krz Race 6: #9 Dreamsdocometrue: Finished ahead of the likely fav in his last two and is still 8-1 ML. Consistent runner looks reasonable value. #7 Hammers Vision: Stakes placed behind Exaggerator here last year. 3yo gets in with light weight but sire is 0/12 with runners on wet tracks. #2 Ekhlaas: Lone win came off a dawdling half at AQU. No reason to stop last time, but KMac is on fire. Race 7: #6 Runway Doll: Impressive 9.4 at the sales. Two moves in 47 and change and another in 100.3, all from the gate. 12-1 ML is a major overlay IMO. #1 Defrock: Mott 39 0-4-6 with 2yo FTS on the dirt at SAR, but he pulled a couple fast ones early on the turf in last year's meet (albeit routing). Has a couple bullets and is bred to win young and on a wet track (by Blame). #9 Lights of Medina: Pletcher only 2 for 14 (11 ITM) with 2yo filly FTS going 6f at SAR. #7 Warrior Hall Race 8: #10 Baccelo: Dirt form more than fits. Not sure why they wanted to try the turf again, but no worries about that now. #7 Unbridled Juan: This looks easier, but is a chronic money burner, including two over this course and distance last year. Have to use but will try to beat at a short price. #2 Vision Perfect: Pollard's Vision x Speightstown so the dirt should be okay... Race 9: Wide open head-scratcher...ALL button. Race 10: #9 Miss Matzoball: Missed by a nose in the last dirt (wet) start on her form. Showed speed that day, and after the SCRs there's a distinct lack of it here. Unlike the others left in the field she's won at 5f, 6f, 7f. Lerman at the Spa... #3 Harp N Halo: Only out of the exacta once on the dirt, and that came over the quirky inner track. #1 Fusaichi Red: MTO will be coming late, but the inside draw and 5.5f is a disadvantage. Race 11: #8 Nominal Dollars: Win came around two-turns and takes on a field mostly full of turf runners with very little on their resumes on the dirt. #5 Mid Ocean: Dirt runner off the layoff, but Sheppard capable of getting them ready. #3 Shootout $1 Pick Five Race 1: 4, 5 Race 2: 8, 11 Race 3: 1, 3 Race 4: 1, 8, 9 Race 5: 1, 3, 4 $72 + $0.60 cover: 6/8,11/1,3/1,8,9/1,3,4 = $21.60 = $93.60 total $1 Early Pick Four Race 2: 8, 11, 14 Race 3: 1, 3 Race 4: 1, 8, 9 Race 5: 1, 3, 4 $54 $0.60 Late Pick Four Race 8: 2, 7, 10 Race 9: ALL (10) Race 10: 3, 9 Race 11: 3, 5, 8 $108 Good luck! 
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